Patrick Boyle 对 $AMZN 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
随后，在6月下旬，指数提供商进行了年度再平衡。他们将那些芯片股从价值指数中移出，纳入成长指数，并将亚马逊、苹果和微软反向移入价值指数。
Then, in late June, the index providers did their annual rebalance. They moved those chip stocks out of the value index and into the growth index and moved Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft the other way into value.
而时机，纯属巧合，完美得无与伦比。芯片股恰好在其涨势顶部被卖出，就在它们回落之前，而价值指数则在大盘科技股触及低点之际接入了它们。
And the timing was, by complete accident, absolutely perfect. The chips got sold right at the top of their run, just before they rolled over, and the value index picked up the big tech names right as they were touching their lows.
唯一的小问题是它让你陷入了何种境地。你明智的价值投资组合现在塞满了亚马逊、苹果和微软——地球上最大的三家科技公司，而且很可能正是你当初购买价值基金想要避开的那几只股票。
The only small catch is where it left you. Your sensible value portfolio is now stuffed with Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft, three of the biggest tech companies on Earth, and quite possibly the exact stocks you bought a value fund to avoid owning.
你逃离了AI交易，却落入了实际上戴着假胡子的AI交易。
You escaped the AI trade and landed in what was effectively the AI trade wearing a false mustache.
亚马逊是你可以选中的赢家的明显例子。亚马逊在崩盘中幸存下来，成为人类历史上最有价值的公司之一，但其股价在泡沫破裂时仍下跌了约90%。如果你在1999年的顶峰买入，你对在线商务未来的判断完全正确，但随后你必须等到2009年才能收回投资成本。
正确判断让你付出了十年的代价。杰夫·贝索斯当年致股东的信以两个字开头：“哎哟”。值得注意的是，也很少有人会只买亚马逊。在1999年典型的科技投资者投资组合中，除了亚马逊，还有一篮子像pets.com这样的股票，它们全部归零，显著稀释了长期回报。
Amazon is the obvious example of a winner that you could have picked. Amazon survived the crash and became one of the most valuable companies in human history, but its stock still fell about 90% when the bubble burst. If you bought at the peak in 1999, you were absolutely right about the future of online commerce, and you then would have had to wait until 2009 to get back to break even on your investment. Being right cost you a decade. Jeff Bezos' own letter to shareholders about that year opened with a single word, "Ouch." It's worth noting that there are very few people who would have bought just Amazon, either. In the typical tech investor's portfolio in 1999, along with Amazon, was a basket of stocks like pets.com that all went to zero, diluting their long-term returns significantly.