Rich Habits 对 $AMZN 的判断变化
在包括亚马逊、微软、Alphabet、Meta 和甲骨文在内的五大 AI 支出者中，2026 年的资本支出指引总额现已超过 7250 亿美元。
Across the five biggest AI spenders, including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle, 20026 capex, guidance now totals more than $725 billion.
亚马逊以 2200 亿美元领先。这一数字是其 CEO 安迪·贾西从最初 2000 亿美元的指引上调而来的，该指引是在上周的第二季度财报电话会议上发布的。安迪·贾西将原因归咎于内存成本上升。
And Amazon is leading the pack at $220 billion. It's a number that their CEO Andy Jasse raised from their original 200 billion guidance that was issued during their Q2 earnings call last week. Andy Jasse blamed higher memory costs.
亚马逊的 AWS 接近 5000 亿美元，达到 4960 亿美元。
AWS at Amazon at nearly half a trillion at 496 billion.
但安迪·贾西在亚马逊第二季度财报电话会议上说的一句话最让我印象深刻，他说：“这是千载难逢的机会。”他此前曾估计 AWS 最终可能成为一项数百亿美元收入的业务，上周他上调了这一预期。
他现在认为这一数字至少会翻倍，这可能意味着未来我们有望实现每年 1 万亿美元的收入。
But the quote that really stood out to me from Andy Jasse on Amazon's Q2 earnings call, he said, "This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity." and he had previously estimated that AWS could eventually become a few hundred billion dollar revenue business and last week he upgraded that. He now believes it will at least double and that could very possibly mean a trillion dollar annual revenue business for us in time.
仅 AWS 一项的年化收入就达到 1 万亿美元，这得益于 AI。安迪·贾西还明确表示，即使资本支出达到 2200 亿美元，亚马逊预计仍无法满足 2026 年所有的 AI 需求，并预计同样的瓶颈将持续到 2027 年。
因此，为了资助这一建设，亚马逊正在像永远不会过时一样大举抛售现金。他们花费了数千亿美元，甚至在 7 月初出售了 250 亿美元债券。该公司的过去十二个月自由现金流现已转为负 70 亿美元。
A trillion dollar of annualized revenue just from AWS because of AI. Andy Jasse also made it clear that even 220 billion in capital expenditures, Amazon is still not expected to have enough capacity to satisfy all of their AI demand in 2026 and expects that same bottleneck to persist in 2027. So again, to fund this buildout, Amazon is shedding cash like it's it's never going out of style. They're spending hundreds of billions. They even sold $25 billion worth of bonds in early July. The company's trailing 12 month free cash flow has now swung negative by $7 billion.
对于亚马逊，罗伯特，他们基本上是在说，我可以花 2000 亿美元的资本支出，然后实现 5000 亿美元的收入。那相当不错，对吧？这样如何，罗伯特？我给你 2000 亿，你给我 5000 亿，对吧？这就是他们现在所处的业务。
For Amazon here, Robert, they're pretty much saying, I could go spend 200 billion of capex and realize half a trillion of revenue on the backside. That's a pretty good, right? How about this, Robert? I give you 200 billion and you give me 500 billion back, right? That's the business they're in right now.
最糟糕的情况是现金流。亚马逊和 Alphabet 都已陷入负自由现金流，Meta 预计也将跟进，而甲骨文的信用评级刚刚被下调至接近垃圾级。
The bare case is cash flow. Amazon and Alphabet have both tipped into negative free cash flow and Meta is expected to follow and Oracle's credit was just downgraded closer to junk.
所以在 SpaceX 之间，我们刚才在谈论这些，你知道，Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊、微软，就像所有这些公司之间，我的意思是，天哪，现在的支出真是令人难以置信。
So between SpaceX, we were just talking about these, you know, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, like between all of these companies, like that's I mean, oh my gosh, this is unbelievable spending right now.
亚马逊是有史以来最大的市场。沃尔玛也是有史以来最大的市场，而它们的收入只有 7000 亿美元。如果你去掉市场这一部分，想想实际上向客户销售商品或服务，我认为 Alphabet 或苹果是最接近的，它们都在 4000 亿美元左右。
所以 SpaceX 销售这些产品的收入将超过这个数字的两倍。
Amazon, Amazon is like the biggest marketplace ever. Walmart is the biggest marketplace ever, and they're only doing 700 billion of revenue. Like if you take off like the marketplace side of it and you think like actually selling a good or a service to a customer, I think Alphabet or Apple are like the closest there and they're both around 400 billion. So you're just you're more than doubling that figure for SpaceX selling this like these products.
亚马逊目前是一家价值 3 万亿美元的企业，收入约为 7000 亿美元。
Amazon's a $3 trillion business right now doing about 700 billion of revenue.
我的第一个雷达点是亚马逊通过 Amazon.com 向医疗补助和医疗保险患者提供 GLP-1 减肥药。Amazon.com 表示，拥有 Medicare D 部分处方药计划的患者现在可以通过亚马逊药房获得某些 GLP-1 减肥药物。
诺和诺德的口服和注射版本也将成为该服务的一部分。此外，Zepbound 和 Foundo 药片将以每月 50 美元的价格提供，并免费送货上门，亚马逊表示。它还提供超过 3100 个地点的当日送达服务，且无需 Prime 会员资格。
所以，我觉得这很有趣。随着 GLP-1 市场越来越好，亚马逊想要分一杯羹，人们喜欢亚马逊。
my first radar point is Amazon to offer GLP1 weight loss drugs to Medicaid and Medicare patients through Amazon.com. Amazon.com said patients with Medicare Part D prescription plans now have access to certain GLP-1 weight loss medications through the Amazon pharmacy. Oral and injectable versions from Novo Nordisk will also be part of that offering. And also on top of that, Zepbound and Foundo pills will be available at a cost of $50 a month with free home delivery, Amazon said. and it's offering same day delivery in more than 3,100 locations and no prime membership is required. So, I thought that was an interesting one. As the GLP1 market gets better and better, Amazon wants their piece of it and people love Amazon.
你看看微软、Meta 和亚马逊。它们每年进口数千亿美元的半导体设备、电信设备以及诸如此类的东西。
You go look at Microsoft and Meta and Amazon. They're importing hundreds of billions of dollars of semiconductor equipment and telecom equipment and things of that nature.
我们都认为英伟达便宜，亚马逊也便宜。
We both think that Nvidia is cheap, Amazon is cheap.
所以如果你想一想，在 Meta、Alphabet、微软和亚马逊之间，我们看到的 2026 年仅一年的 AI 相关资本支出合计将接近 5000 亿美元。Meta 为 1300 亿至 1450 亿美元，Alphabet 为 1950 亿至 2050 亿美元，而微软和亚马逊本周尚未更新其指引。
So if you think about it, between Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, we're looking at combined AI related capital expenditures approaching 500 billion in 2026 alone. Meta at 130 to 145 billion, Alphabet at 195 to 205 billion, and Microsoft and Amazon have not yet updated their guidance this week.
我持有大量苹果股票。我持有大量微软股票。我还会买入亚马逊、特斯拉、Alphabet。我认为这些都很好。我不会卖出任何这些股票。我会买入更多。我还会买入亚马逊。
I've got a ton of Apple. I got a ton of Microsoft. I'm going to got, you know, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet. I think it's all great. I'm not selling any of this stuff. I'm buying more. I'm going to got, you know, Amazon,
我今天的第二个故事是，亚马逊的 Zuks 终于获批用于付费乘车。你听说了。亚马逊刚刚获得批准，可以开始为机器人出租车服务收费，使其成为第一款获得该许可的、没有方向盘或踏板的专用自动驾驶汽车。
他们一直在拉斯维加斯和旧金山提供免费乘车服务，累计乘客超过 50 万人次，并将于下个月开始在拉斯维加斯收费。然而，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）将他们在头两年的车辆数量限制在每年 2500 辆，同时他们正在建立适当的监管和框架，并同时宣布计划制定首个国家自动驾驶汽车安全标准，以取代目前各州和地方各自为政的规则。
My second story today is Amazon Zuks is finally approved for paid rides. You heard it. Amazon just got approval to start charging for robo taxi rides, making it the first purpose-built autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals to get that clearance. They've been given free rides in Vegas and San Francisco, racking up over a half million passengers, and will start charging in Las Vegas next month. The NHTSA is capping them, however, at 2500 vehicles per year for the first two years while they build out the proper oversight and framework and simultaneously announced plans to create the first national AV safety standards replacing the current patchwork of state and local rules.
所以，这真是个疯狂的故事，但我绝对想报道它，因为亚马逊拥有巨大的护城河，而且他们在机器人出租车领域处于领先地位。
So, pretty crazy story, but I wanted to definitely cover that because Amazon's got a large moat and they are ahead of the game in this robo taxi category.
老兄，我告诉你，我对亚马逊那个消息非常兴奋，因为亚马逊是一家每年营收达 4000 亿、5000 亿、6000 亿、7000 亿美元的企业。我甚至不知道具体数字。每年数千亿美元的收入。
但他们实际的营业利润率非常薄，因为你知道，他们并没有一个高利润率的业务。他们的市场不是高利润率的。他们利润率最高的业务是亚马逊网络服务（AWS），那才是真正驱动他们所有盈利的业务。
但随着他们的广告业务开始逐渐上升，这会推动利润率扩张，同时他们的国际市场业务也有更宽的利润率。那也会有所帮助。但现在我们有了自动驾驶汽车，我不知道那些利润率有多高，但肯定有 30%、40%、50%、60%，对吧？
因为没有司机需要支付工资。所以现在你有了这些自动驾驶汽车。那是一项高利润率的经常性业务，谁不想坐在一个滚动的烤面包机里呢，对吧？因为那可能比出租车甚至优步更便宜。你不需要和别人说话。
有人很臭。就像你只是待在这个轮子上的小烤面包机里。对我来说那很有趣。我知道他们现在每年只有 2500 辆车，持续两年，但快进 10 年，因为我是 10 年、20 年、30 年的股东。
你现在有一个亚马逊，也许他们因为 Zuks 的自动驾驶汽车推出，营业利润率会多出数十亿甚至数百亿美元。
Dude, I'll tell you what, that Amazon one I'm so excited for because Amazon is this business that does four, five, six, 700 billion dollars a year of revenue. I don't even know the number. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue. But their actual like operating margins are so thin because you know they they don't have a high margin business per se. Their their marketplace isn't high margin. Their highest margin business is Amazon Web Services, the AWS, and that really drives all of their earnings. But as their advertising business starts to, you know, inch higher, that that drives margin expansion as their international marketplace uh business, you know, has has wider margins. That that's going to help as well. But now we've got autonomous vehicles, which I don't know how high those margins are, but they got to be 30, 40, 50, 60%. Right? Cuz there's no driver to be paid. So now you've got these autonomous vehicles. That is a high margin recurring business that who doesn't want to go sit in a rolling toaster, right? Because the it's going to be a cheaper ride than perhaps a cab or even an Uber. You don't have to talk to someone. Someone's stinky. Like you're just hanging out in this like little toaster on wheels. Like that to me is interesting. I know they're only at 2500 vehicles right now per year for the next 2 years, but fast forward 10 years because I'm a shareholder for 10, 20, 30 years. You now have an Amazon that maybe they're doing billions if not tens of billions of dollars of operating margin more because of their autonomous vehicle rollout with Zuks.