The Acquirers Podcast 对 $AMZN 的判断变化

2026-09-18看涨
《Why Option Markets Misprice Securities (And How to Capitalize)》
AMZN 凭借强劲的基本面(AWS、广告、物流)以及高回报的 AI 资本开支,是一项具吸引力的长期投资,其优势超过当前自由现金流的疲弱。

即便是 Amazon,当 Amazon 的股价跌到 200 时,那也是一个绝佳的机会。我们认为 Amazon 是一家好企业,就未来和他们所拥有的资产而言,它具备这样的条件。你自然会想到它的零售业务,但 AWS 才是皇冠上的明珠。

它还有一块广告业务,规模比 YouTube 更大,而且增长迅速,凭借其当前所处的位置,它的定位非常理想。现在他们又进入了第三方物流领域,与 UPS 和 FedEx 竞争,如果看评级的话,他们有很多不同的取胜方式。

是的,自由现金流正承受严重压力。所以就价格与自由现金流之比而言,看起来会很糟糕。但根据我们的估算,这笔钱将为他们带来丰厚的回报。我的意思是,如果我是 Amazon 的 CEO,我会想在这上面大量投入,因为现实是人工智能非常出色。

它就是那么强。我原本持怀疑态度,但越深入研究、越看到你能用它做什么,我就越意识到它确实如此。我的意思是,他们在算力以及诸如此类的东西上能够卖出的量,上限非常高。所以,我认为那很有吸引力。

I mean, even Amazon, when Amazon's stock dropped to 200, that was a great opportunity. We view Amazon as a good business as far as it can be in terms of the future and the assets they have, if you think about it.

You naturally have retail operations , but AWS is the crown jewel. You have an advertising business that is larger than YouTube and growing rapidly, and it is ideally positioned thanks to its current location.

You now have them entering the third-party logistics field , competing with UPS and FedEx, and there are many different ways for them to win, if you look at the rating . Yes, free cash flow is under severe pressure.

So, in terms of the price-to-free cash flow ratio, it would look terrible. But this is money from which they will make a great return, according to our estimates. I mean, if I were the CEO of Amazon, I would want to invest a lot in this because the reality is that artificial intelligence is very good.

It is that strong . I was skeptical, but the more I delved into it and saw what you could do with it, the more I realized it really was . I mean, there are very high limits to what they will be able to sell in terms of computing power and things like that . So, I thought that was attractive.