The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $AMZN 的判断变化
而且我相信你在 Mata Libre、Amazon 上投资相当重，但也在 Reddit 和其他一些股票上投资不少。
and I believe you're pretty heavily invested in Mata Libre, Amazon, but but also Reddit and some other names, too.
但我们何不转到投资组合中的另一只 Mag 7 股票。Amazon 自今年 2 月起一直是我们的持仓，当时我们以每股 190 美元左右的价格买入，而过去几周它已经回调。因此，回报率比 Amazon 交易价格高达每股 270 美元时要低一些。
But how about we jump to our other Mag 7 name in the portfolio. So Amazon has been a holding since February of this year when we bought it in the 190 range per share and it has corrected over the last few weeks. So returns are a little lower than they were when Amazon was trading at as high as $270 per share.
所以，现在称它为我们最大的赢家之一可能还为时过早，但 5 个月 35% 的回报绝对不算太差。而且我仍然想提出来，这样我们就有机会再把它和 Google 比较一下，尤其是你刚才提到你可能不会在这里加仓 Google。
那么，在 Amazon 上涨了一些之后，你对它的看法是否有所不同？
So, it might be premature to call this one of our biggest winners, but a 35% return in 5 months is definitely not anything uh too shabby. And I I still want to bring it up just so we have another chance to compare it against Google, too, especially since you just mentioned that you probably wouldn't add to Google here. So, do you feel differently about Amazon after it's run up a bit?
嗯，我们应该说明，我们录制这段内容时，Amazon 和 Reddit 刚刚公布了财报，而 Amazon 的财报反应相当不错。它们今天可能会高开 15%。
Well, we should say that we record this when basically Amazon and also Reddit just reported earnings and Amazon's earnings reaction is pretty good. They will open probably 15% up today.
所以，我只想说，我认为 Amazon 的价格现在比 Google 有吸引力得多，虽然上涨了 15%，但那个优势已经消失了一些。不过，我仍然会说，如果你问我，现在可能是部署资本的更好机会。
So, I just want to say that I think Amazon's prices are a lot more attractive than Google now being up 15%, you know, a bit of that leeway is gone. But still, I would say that it's probably, if you ask me, a better opportunity right now to deploy capital.
但它也已经占我们内在价值投资组合的 10%，考虑到这一点，我可能不会把它变成更大的赌注。但如果你今天给我一美元，并告诉我，它必须投给 Google 或 Amazon，我会选择 Amazon。
But it's also already 10% of our intrinsic value portfolio, and I probably wouldn't make it a larger bet just considering that. But if you would hand me a dollar today and you would tell me, well, it has to go to either Google or Amazon, I would go for Amazon.
>> 对它们来说，故事在某些方面肯定相似。Google 预计资本支出为 2000 亿美元，Amazon 也预计资本支出约为 2000 亿美元。
>> The story for them both is definitely similar in some ways. Google is guiding for $200 billion in capex and Amazon is also guiding for roughly $200 billion in capex 2.
Google 今年已筹集了超过 500 亿美元的长期债务，而 Amazon 实际上筹集了近 900 亿美元。所以，作为背景，当我们谈论 2000 亿美元的资本支出时，那大约是希腊经济的规模，整个欧洲国家。
美国有两家公司花费了那个数额的两倍，或者你知道，它们两家之间是那个数额的两倍。
Google has raised more than $50 billion of long-term debt this year and Amazon has actually raised close to $90 billion. And so for context, when we're talking about $200 billion in capex spend, that is roughly the size of the economy of Greece, entire European country. You got two companies in the US spending twice that amount or you know between the two of them twice that amount.
而且和 Google 一样，Amazon 第二季度的自由现金流也转为负值，这对于那些收入达数千亿美元、并且多年来产生大量经营现金流的公司来说，绝对不是我预料中的事情，即它们的自由现金流会因为如此大规模的资本支出而变为负值。
And like Google, Amazon's Q2 free cash flow has also turned negative, which again for companies doing hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and and producing massive amounts of of operating cap cash flow for many many years, it was definitely not something I had on my radar that their free cash flow would go negative because they're making such massive capital expenditures.
>> 嗯，至少 Amazon 的股东习惯了负自由现金流。你知道，Google 的股东就不能这么说。而且我实际上认为，如果你只看 Amazon 的财报，并将其与 Google 比较，你也可以与 Meta 比较，我不认为市场对财报结果好坏的判断存在同样的威胁。
>> Well, at least Amazon shareholders are used to negative free cash flow. you know, Google shareholders can't say the same. And I actually think that if you just look at the earnings report of Amazon and you compare it to Google, and you could also compare to Meta, I don't really see the same threat by, you know, the market's judgment of whether that's good earnings result or not.
如果我看 Amazon 的财报，我个人喜欢它们，我能理解为什么它们的股价上涨了 15%。但我也喜欢 Google，而且在某种程度上也喜欢 Meta。所以我觉得市场现在只是对它们有不同的判断。
If I look at Amazon's earnings, I personally like them and I can understand why their stock is up 15%. But I also like Google and I also to some extent like Meta. So I feel like the market is just judging them differently right now.
我相信主要是因为 Google 估值高，所以它被看待的方式与 Amazon 不同，但 Meta 只是总体上处于市场的不利位置。
I believe it's primarily that Google has a high valuation, so it's seen differently than Amazon, but Meta is just in in a bad spot generally with the market.
而且为了得到 Amazon 的收益，你也必须对它们的收益进行类似的调整，因为 Amazon 受益于其在 Anthropic 的股份 170 亿美元的增值，就像 Google 有 SpaceX 的股权一样。
And just to get to Amazon's earnings, you also have to make similar adjustments to their earnings because Amazon benefited from a $17 billion markup on its stake in anthropic just like Google had the SpaceX equity.
所以，当你看到以 12 或 13 倍的价格对经营现金流交易时，那看起来比实际要低。经过调整后，Amazon 的交易价格将接近 17 或 18 倍。但我仍然会说，这比 Google 要低得多。
如果你问我，对于这样质量的公司来说，这是相当有吸引力的。
So, when you see a trade at, you know, price to operating cash flow of 12 or 13, that seems lower than it actually is. after adjustments, Amazon would trade closer to 17 or 18 times. But I would still say that's maturely lower than Google. And if you ask me, pretty attractive for a company of that quality.
而且显然，这不仅仅是关于指标。仅仅看市盈率或价格对经营现金流是不够的。我只是看 Amazon 的业务，我看到了很多机会。
And obviously, it's not just about the metrics. It's not enough to just look at a PE or price to operating cash flow. I just look at Amazon's business, and I see so many opportunities.
Amazon 在过去几年里实际上建立了世界上最大的芯片业务之一，而且几乎没有人注意到。根据 Amazon 现任 CEO Andy Jesse 的说法，该业务的年运行率为 200 亿美元。
如果他们对外销售芯片，甚至可能翻倍，接近 500 亿美元，这想想真是疯狂。
Amazon has literally built one of the largest chip businesses in the world in the last couple of years, and barely anyone has even noticed. And according to Andy Jesse, the CEO of Amazon nowadays, that business has a $20 billion annual run rate. And if they were to sell chips externally, it could even be double than that or closer to 50 billion, which is just insane when you think about it.
而且如果你再加上 AWS，它也经历了惊人的增长，是我们很长时间以来见过的最快的增长之一，再加上所有的市场数据和其他业务，我忍不住认为 Amazon 是估值仍然合理的垂直整合程度最高的参与者之一。
And if you combine that with you know AWS which has also had phenomenal growth and one of the fastest that we've seen for a long long time and then all the marketplace data and all the other businesses that it operates. I just can't help myself. I think Amazon is one of the most vertically integrated players at still a reasonable valuation.
感觉亚马逊是市场上少数既与AI竞赛相关、又不太可能因此受损的公司之一。它们在这方面享有某种不对称优势。
>> It feels like Amazon is one of the the few players in the market that is connected to the AI race but also not really likely to be hurt by it. They sort of benefit from an asymmetry there.
如果AI如预期般成功，亚马逊肯定会通过亚马逊网络服务（AWS）从中获得巨大收益。其芯片业务仅用于内部使用，使公司更高效，而且AI代理可能还会推动更多电商销售。
If AI is as successful as hoped, Amazon will certainly benefit from it massively through Amazon Web Services. it's chip business just internal use making the the company more efficient and then also maybe AI agents drive even more e-commerce sales
电商仅占美国零售总额的约20%，很多人仍然去实体店购物，而AI可能成为推动更多线上购物的顺风。如果AI无法产生投资者期望的回报，亚马逊只需削减资本支出，你仍然拥有与之前一样的高质量业务，现金流可能会投资于其他地方，或者可能返还给股东。
e-commerce is only like 20% of all retail spending in the US a lot of people still go to brickandmortar stores and AI could be a tailwind for driving more online shopping and if AI can't generate the returns investors hope for Amazon they just cut back on this capex and you still own the same highquality business as before with cash flows being invested probably elsewhere or maybe return to shareholders.
我还记得不久前你和Clay做的一期节目，那是他在播客上的最后一期，你们讨论了Marcato Libre和亚马逊，特别是自动化带来的机会。
And so I I also remember an episode you did with Clay a while ago and uh it was actually his last episode here on the podcast and you two talked about Marcato Libre and Amazon and especially the opportunity that comes from automation
电商一直以艰难的业务著称，这可能是公平的，因为它本质上就是零售，而像亚马逊和Melly这样的玩家之所以如此成功，是因为他们在电商运营和相关的消费者订阅周围建立了高利润的业务。
and so e-commerce has gotten a reputation for being a tough business which is probably fair given that it's nothing but retail at its core and the reason players like Amazon and Melly though are so successful is that they've been building high margin businesses around their e-commerce operations and the consumer subscriptions that are connected to it.
想想亚马逊Prime。他们进入的其他一些领域显然是云计算、支付、银行、广告、视频流媒体，当然还有我最喜欢的全食超市。
So, think Amazon Prime. And so, some of the other layers that they've moved into are obviously cloud computing, payments, banking, advertising, video streaming, and then also of course my favorite Whole Foods.
但你的论点是自动化可能使核心业务更有利可图。你是这么想的吗？是的。更有利可图，更高效。我认为如果只看今天的数字，核心业务的增长速度已经比过去更快，而且也比过去更有利可图。
But uh your argument is that automation could make the core business much more profitable. Is that how you think about it? >> Yeah. More profitable, more efficient. I think if you just look at the numbers today, the core business is already growing faster than it has in the past and also more profitable than it has in the past.
了解亚马逊及其规模经济共享模式，我可以想象他们会将成本优势传递给消费者。但即便如此，你也会拥有一个更好、更健康的整体业务。
And knowing Amazon and you know its scale economy shared model, I could imagine they pass the cost benefits on to consumers. But even then, you will have a better and healthier business overall.
我认为它只是体现在业务的其他部分，然后再次强化了飞轮，这是我们谈论我们认为有飞轮的每家公司时都会提到的。自动化的巨大机会主要来自亚马逊是全球收入最高的公司这一事实。因此，零售利润率的每一个增量点都落在超过7000亿美元的收入基础上。
I think it just shows up in other parts of the business that you know then again strengthen the flywheel which is something that we talk about with you know every company that in our opinion has a flywheel and the big opportunity in automation primarily comes from the fact that Amazon is the world's largest company by revenue. So every incremental point of retail margin lands on a revenue base of more than $700 billion.
我们刚刚比较了谷歌，它的收入是4750亿美元，这也非常惊人，而且仓库劳动力是迄今为止最大的成本因素之一，这就是为什么亚马逊十多年来一直在将机器人整合到其履约运营中，但至少在我看来，我们现在正处于新建筑围绕自动化设计的阶段，机器人变得越来越有能力，我认为它们将对亚马逊的效率和成本基础产生比过去更大的影响。
我预计，请注意，这不会在未来2到3年内产生实质性影响，但在未来十年，我相信这可以节省数百亿美元的成本，甚至可能更多。
We just compared you know Google which is at 475 billion which is also insane and and the labor in the warehouses is one of the biggest cost factor by far and that's why Amazon has been integrating robots into its fulfillment operations for more than a decade now but at least to me it seems like now we're at a point where new buildings are designed around automation and robots are becoming increasingly capable and I think they will have an even bigger impact than in the past on the efficiency and the cost basis of Amazon. I don't expect for the record, you know, for this to have a material impact in the next 2 or 3 years, but over the next decade, I believe this can save tens of billions of dollars in cost, potentially even more than that.
所有这些冗长的说法是为了说我非常喜欢亚马逊和谷歌。主要是因为它们都感觉会从AI中受益匪浅。但如果AI在任何方面令人失望，它们仍然会很好，仍然是世界上最好的两家企业。
And all of this is a long-winded way of saying I like both Amazon and Google a lot. And it's mainly because both of them feel like they would benefit massively from AI. But if AI should be a disappointment in whatever way that would be, they still would be fine and they still would be two of the best businesses in the world.
我想你可以说，仅从股票来看，由于亚马逊从AI炒作周期中受益较少，股票在放弃收益方面可能损失较少。我们刚刚花了最后10分钟解释这一点，但你也可以走捷径，只看过去12个月的表现。谷歌上涨了75%。
亚马逊在录制时上涨了0.5%。所以感觉一个有很多追赶空间。
>> I guess you could say just strictly from looking at the stock since Amazon has benefited less from the AI hype cycle. There's probably less for the stock to lose in terms of giving up gains. And we just spent the last 10 minutes explaining this, but you could also take a shortcut and just look at the performance of the last 12 months. Google is up 75%. Amazon is up 0.5% at the time of recording. So it does feel like one has a lot more room to catch up.
一个很好的例子说明为什么情况可能并非如此，那就是他们刚刚经历了一些重大且意外的业务变化。虽然我认为这些是正确的事情和正确的决定，但这些事情不会发生在谷歌、亚马逊或Netflix这类公司身上。
And and a good example for why that might not end up being the case is that they just went through some major and unexpected business changes. And while I think they were the right thing to do and the right decision, those things just wouldn't happen at, you know, Google, Amazon, or Netflix, those sorts of companies.
我认为谷歌和亚马逊都取得了类似的业绩，云计算业务虽然不能说是指数级增长，但增速确实在加快，尤其是亚马逊，其增速是我们多年来未曾见过的。
Um I think you know both Google and Amazon had similar results where cloud grew just ex almost wouldn't say exponentially but accelerated in terms of growth um to I think growth rates especially for Amazon that we haven't seen in many years.
如果我们看这些公司，并且我必须只选择一家到那时仍然存在的公司，我认为要么是谷歌，要么是我接下来要展示的那家，那就是亚马逊。
Um, if we look at these and I would have to choose just one company that still exists at that point, I think it would be either Google or the next one that I pull up now and that would be Amazon.
是的，亚马逊是另一家。显然，它有着非常辉煌的历史，表现一直非常出色，而且整个亚马逊网络服务（AWS）业务对这家公司来说是一个巨大的顺风。
Yeah, I mean Amazon is um is another one. I mean obviously like it has such as such a rich history of of of doing incredibly well and obviously the whole Amazon Web Services thing was this massive um tailwind for the business.
我仍然大量使用它。我想你们可能也大量使用它。所以，就我进行网上购物而言，我真的不认为有任何东西能接近到让我不得不改用其他平台。显然，如果某个产品亚马逊不卖，那我当然会去特定品牌那里购买。
但就实际的电子商务方面而言，我看不到自己会真正离开亚马逊。
Um I still use it a ton. I think probably yeah you guys also use it a ton. So you know in in the sense of me doing my online shopping I don't really honestly think that there's anything even close that would actually force me to use something else. Obviously, if there's a product that Amazon doesn't sell, well then, yeah, sure, I'll I'll go buy it off of a specific brand. But in terms of um like the actual e-commerce side of things, I don't see myself actually moving away from Amazon.
但同样，显然亚马逊不仅仅是一家电子商务企业。它显然还有亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。所以，我不知道。老实说，我不确定我是否会把它们放在S级。
Um but again, obviously, Amazon's not just an e-commerce business. It obviously has the the Amazon web services. Um so, I don't I I don't know. I think I I don't know if I could put them in the S tier either, to be honest.
显然，他们也在投入大量资金。我记不清确切数字了。我不确定是否达到了谷歌的水平，但我很确定，是的，肯定在那一水平。而且，与其他这些企业类似，我们不知道这些投资会如何回报。
Um obviously, they're spending a lot of money as well. Uh, I can't remember what the exact figures are. I'm not sure if it's quite at Google's level, but it's it's I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's it's definitely up there. Um, and similar to all these other businesses. We don't know how those uh how those those investments are going to pay off.
所以，鉴于我仍然看到自己在使用亚马逊，而且目前我真的看不到任何其他替代方案，我认为对我来说，A级可能是最合理的。所以，是的，我很乐意听听你们的想法，但我觉得A级对我来说感觉是对的。
So, just given the fact that, you know, I still see myself using Amazon and I don't really see any other alternative right now. Um, I think a for me probably makes the most amount of sense. Um, so yeah, I I I I'm happy to hear what your guys' thoughts are on that, but uh I think a A feels right for me.
我认为亚马逊实际上可能是名单上我看到的唯一一家S级公司。这带有很大的偏见。你知道，在这次通话之前，我刚刚收到了两个亚马逊包裹。我可能还会收到更多。我每天都会收到好几个。我生活在亚马逊上。
Uh, I think Amazon is actually probably the only S tier company I think I see on the list. Uh, that comes with like a huge amount of bias. Uh, you know, I I I literally before this call uh had two Amazon packages delivered to my door. I'll probably have more. I get I get like multiple a day. I live on I live on Amazon.
所以，我认为电子商务业务就是一个已经旋转了很长时间的飞轮。没有人能撼动它。沃尔玛在某种程度上正在尝试，而且他们确实是唯一可能触及亚马逊在美国电子商务地位的潜在公司。
And so it's like uh I I for one think that that e-commerce business is just it's a flywheel that is been spinning for so so long. Um nobody can touch it. I mean Walmart is is sort of trying. um and they're really the only possible company that could um touch re Amazon's e-commerce presence in in the US.
但我只是认为这个飞轮和护城河非常强大。比如你成为亚马逊Prime会员，享受无限免费送货，然后还有各种附加产品，比如你可能订阅亚马逊Prime Video的流媒体服务，像我一样订阅Whole Foods配送。
我认为那是一个很棒的产品，每月10美元。很难想象他们能从中赚钱，但这有点像Costco模式，我认为Nick Sleep谈到这基本上是最好的商业模式。很难想象有比规模化共享更好的商业模式，因为没有办法与之竞争。
他们利用规模优势将全部盈余返还给客户，然后继续再投资并复利这一优势。
But I just think the flywheel in in the moat is is is so strong u of like you become an Amazon Prime member and it's unlimited free shipping and then you know like there's all these incremental products that you you know maybe you sign up for uh streaming on um Amazon Prime Video. Uh you sign up like me for Whole Foods delivery. I think you know that's a great that's a incredible product. 10 bucks a month. um hard to imagine they're making any money on it, but again it's it's it's sort of like the Costco model um which I think uh you know Nick Sleep talks about being basically the best business model there is right I mean it's like very hard to imagine a better business model than scaled economies shared because there's just there's no way to compete with it um they're using their uh their scale advantage to return all the surplus to customers and then just continuing to to reinvest and compound that advantage.
然后AWS完全是另一回事，但那似乎是一个非常前景广阔且成熟的企业。此外，亚马逊还有一个巨大的广告机会，他们一直在越来越多地变现，比如付费搜索结果。你在亚马逊上买除臭剂，Degree Men付费成为第一个结果。
有一个巨大的广告机会，与他们的电子商务非常自然地契合。
And then you know AWS is a whole other whole other beast but you know like that seems like uh an incredibly promising wellestablished business. Um, and then there's also, you know, a huge advertising opportunity at Amazon that they've, uh, increasingly been monetizing on, you know, paid search results of, uh, you look for, uh, you know, I don't know, you're buying deodorant on Amazon and it's like Degree Men pays to be the first result, you know, like there there's a huge advertising opportunity that pairs uh, very naturally with the e-commerce that they do.
所以对我来说，我之所以说亚马逊长期来看是S级，是因为我看不到AI从根本上威胁他们业务的方式。我看不到太大的下行风险。谷歌是尽可能好的业务，但他们的核心搜索业务仍存在问号。而亚马逊，我们几乎可以肯定AI可能会让在线购物更容易，可能会提高电子商务渗透率。
所以，他们将在那个层面受益。然后，这显然会波及到广告领域，让他们受益，对吧？如果有更多的电子商务购买发生，数字购物增加，那么公司将有更大的预算来支付数字广告。然后，你想想AWS将如何从数据中心和AI计算需求的持续增长中受益。
And so for me, the reason I would say kind of S tier longer term for Amazon is um I don't see a way in which AI fundamentally threatens their business. Like I don't see very much downside risk. Um you know there is Google is as good of a business as it gets with the caveat that um their core search business there is still a question mark around that. with Amazon. Um, we we we pretty much know that AI is probably going to make it easier to shop online. It's probably going to increase e-commerce penetration. So, they're going to benefit on that level. Then, you know, obviously that ripples across and benefits them on the advertising front, right? If there's more e-commerce purchases happening where uh, you know, digital shopping happening, there's going to be big, you know, companies are going to have bigger budgets to pay for digital advertising. Um, and then, uh, you think about how AWS would benefit from, you know, continued, uh, demand for data centers and AI compute.
感觉你是在以非常合理的价格获得资本主义历史上最好的企业之一，下行风险非常有限，相比名单上其他我认为面临真正颠覆风险的公司。而且有潜在的上行空间，如果一切顺利，他们有很多可以获得，而失去的不多。所以，是的，这就是我的S级选择，亚马逊。
It just feels like you're getting Amazon at one of the best businesses in the history of capitalism at a very reasonable price with very limited downside compared to all the other companies on this list that I think face real risk of disruption. Um and a potential uh you know a potential upside that is uh like you know they have they have a lot to g they can gain if things go well and and not a whole lot to lose. So uh yeah that's my Amazon's my S tier pick.
我想你已经涵盖了。我的意思是，亚马逊现在是我投资组合中最大的持仓。所以我当然也会把它放在那里。实际上，这也是一个好例子。AI自动化对亚马逊来说也是一个巨大的信号，你刚才提到了。
当我想到亚马逊时，我看了很多电子商务公司。亚马逊的统治力让我感到困惑，因为在几乎所有其他市场中，至少有一个大竞争对手，你可以说至少在第一名的争夺上还有竞争，对吧？
I think you covered it. I mean Amazon's my biggest position by now in my portfolio. So I will certainly put it there put it there too. Um actually you know this is a good one too. Um, AI automation would also be a huge tell when I think Amazon and you just said it. When I think about Amazon, um, I looked at so many e-commerce companies. It's just baffling to me how dominant Amazon is because in pretty much all other markets, there's at least one big competitor where you could argue that um there's at least game for who's the number one spot, right?
亚马逊在北美和欧洲如此占主导地位，基本上没有第二名，至少我想不到有谁能真正超越亚马逊。然后你有一个如此强大的飞轮，至于自动化，我还会加上机器人技术。我认为亚马逊成本的很大一部分在仓库中，你可以在那里放置机器人，在10到20年的时间里，这是我们讨论的时间范围，他们可能仅在仓库中就节省数百亿美元，甚至更多。
此外，我们甚至还没有谈到芯片业务，如今它的年化收入已达500亿美元。所以，他们不断孵化出表现异常出色的业务。
Amazon is so dominant in in North America and in Europe um that basically there is no number two at least no one that I can think about you know actually overtaking Amazon then you just have a flywheel which is so strong and to the automation point and I would also add robotics to it. I think a huge part of you know the the cost that Amazon has is in its warehouses where you can put robots in and you know 10 20 years time and this is the time horizon we're talking here that they could literally save tens of billions of dollars if not more um just in the warehouses. Plus, we didn't even yet talk about the chips business, right, which has a $50 billion run rate um today. So, they just keep spinning out businesses that are working phenomenally well.
而且，正如你所说，他们通过电子商务业务与客户建立了如此直接的关系。人们经常谈论电子商务业务，说这个业务赚不了多少钱，但从中获得的所有飞轮效应以及一定程度的客户留存，我认为是名单上其他公司所没有的。
所以，我原本以为谷歌最终会进入S级，然后亚马逊可能要在A级中争夺，但我很高兴结果是相反的，我完全同意。
Um and yeah, as you said, like there's such a direct customer um relationship that they have through the e-commerce business. And you know often times people talk about the e-commerce business and they say you know there's not a much not a lot of money to make in their business but all the flywheel effects that you get from that and just you know the um the customer retention to some extent is I think something that no other company that we have on the list here has. So um I actually thought Google would end up in S tier and then probably have to fight for Amazon in the A tier but I'm glad that we got it the the other way around and I I I fully agree.
可能性的范围如此之大，比Alphabet和亚马逊可能发生的情况要宽一个数量级，尽管Alphabet和亚马逊仍然存在广泛的可能性，但它们不会破产。
the range of possibilities is so it's like an order of magnitude wider than what could happen with Alphabet and and Amazon where you know like there's still a wide range of possibilities um but Alphabet and Amazon aren't aren't going bankrupt
如果我们谈论的是相对于亚马逊和谷歌，那几乎可能是F级。
If we're talking about if we're talking about relative to to Amazon and Google, like it almost might be an F.
如果你将这与亚马逊或谷歌相比，我认为质量根本不在同一水平。你知道，他们说亚马逊是一家非凡的企业，但对于超大规模企业，投入资本的回报率存在一些问号，我们也提到过，因为不能不说这些是巨额资本投资。
if you're comparing this to Amazon or Google I mean not even close to the same quality in my opinion where you know they say Amazon's a phenomenal business but there's some question Mark around the returns on invested capital for hyperscalers which we also mentioned given these you can't otherwise say massive capital investments
特别是如果你看像亚马逊或谷歌这样的企业，这些企业会一如既往地强大，对吧？要么人工智能会改变这些企业的运作方式，但它们处于前沿，因为它们在投资；如果效果不好，那么它们烧掉了很多现金，但它们也产生足够的现金，所以也许你知道，它烧掉两三年自由现金流，这不太好，但如果那是最坏的情况，而我们谈论的是一个咖啡罐投资组合。
and especially if you look at businesses like Amazon or Google those businesses will be as strong as ever right like either AI will change how these businesses work but then they at the forefront because they're doing the investments and if it doesn't work out well well then they burned a lot of cash but they're also producing enough cash so maybe you know it burns two or three years of free cash flow which is not great but if that's the worst case outcome and we talking about a coffee can portfolio
我的意思是，我们把谷歌和亚马逊放在ANS层级，然后我们把Anthropic和OpenAI放在ENF层级，这些在谷歌和亚马逊的积压订单中有数千亿美元。
I mean we put Google and you know Amazon here um in the ANS tier and then we put anthropic and uh open AAI in the ENF tier those have hundreds hundreds of billions in the backlogs of Google and Amazon.
我认为对我来说最大的风险是，目前如果你看市场估值，我非常喜欢低于200美元的谷歌，那是我建立仓位的地方。我认为这对这两家公司来说都是公平的估值，现在在财报之后，尤其是对谷歌和亚马逊。
I think the biggest risk for me is that currently if you look at the market valuations and I really liked Google at below $200 and that's where I built my position. Um I think that was a fair valuation for both of these companies now after earnings especially for Google and Amazon.
如果你只问我未来两三年，我认为事情也可能，我的意思是，比五年前有更多的风险，因为市场目前估值的是那些数字，这些数字基于Anthropic和OpenAI会真的花费数千亿美元，尤其是在数据中心，但尤其是用于这些公司的云服务，我认为那对我来说是最大的风险，如果我看积压订单，它们看起来很棒，而且大多数你知道，它们只运行24个月，所以基本上你需要Anthropic和OpenAI成为可行的公司，并且能够在未来两年内支付和筹集资金，我认为这是合理的，然而我认为那是一个大风险，很多谷歌和亚马逊的积压订单，基本上所有超大规模企业和这个领域的许多其他公司，会发生类似我们在2000年看到的事情。
If you just ask me for the next I don't know two to three years I think things could also I mean there's a lot more risk um than there has been five years ago because what the market is currently valuing are numbers that have the idea in mind that anthropic and open AI would literally spend hundreds of billions of dollars in you know especially data centers but especially for the cloud with these companies and I think that's the biggest risk for me um where if I look at the backlogs and they look fantastic and most of them um you know they only run for 24 months So basically you would need Anthropic and OpenAI um to be viable companies and able to pay and raise money for the next two years which I think is reasonable um and yet I think that's a big risk um that a lot of the you know the backlog that Google and Amazon have and basically all the hyperscalers and many other companies in this field um that something will happen to that similar to what we saw in saw in 2000
微软有这个巨大的分销优势，这是人工智能中最重要的东西之一，但如果我把它们与亚马逊和谷歌相比，我就是看不到它们在同一水平，如果你问我30年后我更愿意拥有哪家公司。
um Microsoft has this huge distribution advantage which is one of the most important things in AI and yet if I compare them to to Amazon and Google I just don't see them at the same level if you ask me 30 years out which company would I rather own.
我的钱在亚马逊之后，因为他们在Instagram上的广告平台，那是他们的优势，虽然我认为对社会不好，我不记得是魁北克省，在加拿大东部，还是魁北克的一个城市，他们基本上禁止了，我想是禁止手机在学校使用，我听说在我自己的省份也在考虑做类似的事情。
money from me after Amazon just because their ad platforms on uh Instagram which is their good and though I because about not being good for society with you um I can't remember if it's the province of Quebec which is in Eastern Canada or city in Quebec they basically banned um I think ban mobile phones from being at uh at schools and I' I've heard in in my own province as well that they're thinking of doing something similar.
基本上你可以说亚马逊有一个类似规模的广告业务，加上许多其他产生数百亿美元的业务。虽然我得说，我认为肖恩你会同意，像亚马逊或谷歌这样的公司，它们已经存在了很长时间。我的意思是，通常我们看到这些标普500前10或20公司的名单，以及它们20年后如何变化。
这次应该是这些公司变化的时候了。我还没有看到。所以我确实有一些信心，我们未来也会看到它们中的许多。
and you know basically you could say that Amazon has a similar size ads business plus many other businesses that produce tens and hundreds of billions of dollars. Although I got to say I think Sean you agree companies like Amazon or Google they are there for such a long time by now. I mean usually we you see these lists of like the top 10 20 um companies in the S&P 500 and how they change after 20 years. Well this time it should be around time for those companies changing. I don't yet see it. Um so I do have some confidence that we will see many of them in the future too.
不是要悲观，但在30年内，埃隆有很大可能已经死在去火星的路上，而亚马逊的Project Kuiper已经完成了Starlink的先发优势。
Not to be morbid, but in 30 years, there's a decent chance that Elon has died on right to Mars and Amazon's Leo has completed Stling's first mover advantage away.
所以很多，我们谈到了循环交易和人工智能领域的整体交易流。似乎每当你看到英伟达，市场不买账，当你看谷歌或亚马逊当前的估值，市场认为Anthropic和OpenAI的钱会真正落到那里。
So a lot of the you know we talked about the the circle of the circular deals and the deal flow generally in AI. It seems to be that whenever you look at Nvidia the market doesn't buy it when you look at Google or Amazon and their current valuations the market thinks that the money well for anthropic and open AI will actually land there.
但我也相信我们刚刚谈到了亚马逊的芯片业务，你知道许多其他公司也会进入这个领域。
But I also believe we just talked about the chip business of Amazon and you know many other companies will be in that space too.
但是你知道，像Alphabet和亚马逊这样的其他企业正在开发自己的芯片。我的意思是，谁知道他们的芯片是否会领先，谁知道要提前多少年。
but you know, with other businesses like um Alphabid and Amazon working on their own chips. I mean, who knows if their chips are even going to be in the lead and who knows how many years in advance.