The Investor Channel 对 $AMZN 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
接下来看亚马逊，本周初股价为263美元。股价上下波动，技术上大致持平，对亚马逊来说处于一个不错的位置。股价收于258美元，下跌约1.6%。
Moving on to Amazon, start of the week at 263. Shares went up and down, roughly flat technically, kind of in a decent spot for Amazon. Shares closed at 258. That was down about 1.6%.
该公司正像许多公司一样涌入德克萨斯州奥斯汀，建设一个新的机器人设施，基本上将创造300至500个制造和工程岗位。
The company is piling into Austin, Texas like a lot of companies are to build a new robotics facility, essentially creating 300 to 500 manufacturing and engineering jobs.
我长期以来的信念是，这家市值2.8万亿美元、年化收入接近1万亿美元的公司，将通过在未来十年削减大量人力，获得巨大的运营杠杆，也就是利润。
My long-held belief is this $2.8 trillion company nearly a trillion dollars in annualized revenue are going to get a lot of operating leverage, otherwise known as profit, by cutting a lot of human workforce over the next decade.
SpaceX宣布，他们的新AI模型Grok 4.6现在已在Amazon Bedrock上普遍可用。如果你有AWS订阅，或者你在AWS上运行应用程序，并且想要访问这个模型，或者可能更重要的是，访问模型的组合，那么你就会使用Amazon Bedrock。
假设你有一个AI应用程序，或者你在做某些事情，你可能想要访问前沿模型，你想要Fable 5访问或Chat GPT 5，无论它是什么，你想要那种访问，但也许你想将一些任务路由到更便宜的模型，包括Grok 4.6，它的价格是每百万个token 2美元到6美元。
这只是领先模型价格的一小部分，我认为领先模型的价格大约在25美元左右。好吧，Amazon Bedrock就是发生这种情况的地方，这也是AWS收入增长如此之快的原因之一。
SpaceX announced that Grok 4.6, which is their new AI model, is now generally available on Amazon Bedrock. Amazon Bedrock is something that you use if you have an AWS subscription or you have an application running on AWS and you want access to this model and maybe potentially, maybe even more importantly, a combination of models. Let's say you have an AI application or you're doing something that you want access to maybe the Frontier, you want the Fable 5 access or the Chat GPT 5. whatever it's on, you want that access, but maybe you want to route some tasks through the more cheaper models out there including Grok 4.6, which is 2 million in $6 per million tokens out. That is a fraction of the price of the leading edge models, which I think are closer to $25 on one end or the other. Well, Amazon Bedrock is where it happens and that is one of the reasons why AWS revenue is climbing so fast.
宾夕法尼亚州州长，伟大的Josh Shapiro，周二签署了一项行政命令，将所有数据中心项目从该州的许可快速通道计划中移除，包括要求他们对电网和不同类型的能源采取一些措施。现在，这里有一个有趣的观点。
我听过，你知道，聪明的人说过这个，我确实相信这是真的。消除AI泡沫或这些公司支出过多的风险的方法之一，实际上是这些该死的政客阻碍建设。现在，我不一定是指Josh Shapiro，我实际上，即使作为一个投票有点保守的人，我真的很尊重这个家伙。
我认为他实际上是个好人。我不责怪任何州想要限制或放慢事情。没问题。作为投资者，我们确实需要从理性的角度来看待这个问题，并说：“这确实踩了刹车。”这对谁有利？首先，它对任何能获得计算能力的人有利，特别是大量计算能力。
有些人会说，“嘿，那都是数据中心股票。”我认为你可以提出这个论点。我会更进一步说：“这对那些不需要在其商业模式上叠加更多收入和利润的数据中心股票有利，”也就是新云。新云需要继续扩张吗？
我刚刚在我的Substack上写了一篇关于Coreweave的文章。我的意思是，那家公司正在大量亏损。他们需要继续增长。好吧，如果这些州开始对它们能建设的数据中心数量踩刹车，那就有问题了。
但对亚马逊、谷歌、微软，可能还有Meta来说，这不是问题，因为他们已经获得了足够的计算能力，至少他们手上有宝贵的资产。
Pennsylvania Governor, the great Josh Shapiro, signed an executive order on Tuesday removing all data center projects from the state's permit fast-track program, including requiring them to do something about the grid and different types of energy. Now, here's an interesting argument. I've heard, you know, smart people say this, and I do believe this to be true. One of the ways that you eliminate the risk of an AI bubble or these companies spending too much is actually these gosh-darn politicians getting in the way of the build-out. Now, I'm not necessarily referring to Josh Shapiro, who I actually, even as somebody that votes somewhat conservatively, I actually really respect this guy. I think he's actually a good guy. And I don't blame any state for wanting to restrict things or slow things down. No problem with that. As an investor, we do need to look at this from a rational point of view and say, "This does pump the brakes." Who does this benefit? First of all, it benefits anybody with access to compute, particularly large amounts of compute. Some people will say, "Hey, that's all data center stocks." I think you could make that argument. I would go a step further and say, "This benefits the data center stocks that don't need more and more revenue and profit stacked onto their business model," which is the neo clouds. Do neo clouds need to continue to expand? I just did an article on my Substack about Coreweave. I mean, that company's losing money hand over fist. They need to continue to grow. Well, if these states start to pump the brakes on the number of data centers that they can build, that's a problem. It's not a problem though for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, probably Meta as well, as they've secured enough compute that, at the very least, they got a valuable asset on their hands.
现在，亚马逊正计划进行无人机送货。我们将以多种不同的方式消除人类，包括到2026年底在近500个美国城市用无人机递送包裹。你会得到那些疯狂的小飞行无人机之一，把包裹扔在你的后院。
这太棒了。我等不及要试试这个。我只是从来没有能够做到。
Now, Amazon is planning drone deliveries. We're going to eliminate humans in a number of different ways, including delivering the packages by drone in nearly 500 United States cities by the end of 2026. You're going to get one of those crazy little flying drones dropping packages in your freaking backyard. This is amazing. I can't wait to try this out. I just have never been able to do it.
亚马逊从高点回落，填补了财报后的缺口，看起来不错。你只是再次回落到你的均线。均线在回升，特别是你低于它们的时间越长，如果它们是负的，就像Meta一样。如果它们向右下倾斜，如果你低于它们，要重新站上它们是一个沉重的负担。
通常你需要某种基本面改变。就亚马逊而言，你高于你的均线，而且它们是正的，所以它们都作为支撑。
Amazon pulling back from its highs, closed the gap after earnings looks fine. You're just pulling back on your average again. Moving averages on the way back up, particularly the longer you stay under them, also if they are negative just like metas. If they're sloping down into the right, if you're under them to get back over them is a heavy lift. Oftentimes you need some kind of fundamental thing to change. In the case of Amazon, you're above your moving averages and they're positive so they all act as support.