雅典娜的保单持有人无论发生什么都能获得固定回报。这是两个不同的群体。当资金从雅典娜转移到阿波罗时，一个群体在牺牲另一个群体的利益来赚钱。
Athen's insurance policy holders get a fixed return no matter what happens. Those are two different groups of people. And when money moves from Athen over to Apollo, one group is making money at the other group's expense.
黑石、阿波罗、KKR、布鲁克菲尔德，以及像贝莱德这样的资产管理公司，都在竞争这些巨额交易。
Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, along with asset managers like Black Rockck, they're all competing for these huge deals.
一些最大的资产管理公司，包括黑石和阿波罗，现在已成为三大评级机构之外最常使用评级公司的客户之一。但一家私募股权赞助商目前正因向评级公司付款而受到调查。两名前员工起诉，声称他们被施压抬高评级以赢得业务。
现在，他们否认这一点，调查仍在进行中，所以请记住这一点。
And some of the biggest asset managers, including Blackstone and Apollo, are now amongst the most frequent users of ratings companies outside the big three. But one private equity sponsor is now under investigation over payments to a ratings company. two ex employees sued alleging that they were pressured to inflate those ratings to win business. Now, they deny this and it's still ongoing, so keep that in mind.
这就是雅典娜将其约2000亿美元的退休义务几乎全部转移到其百慕大关联公司的原因。
That's why Athen moved almost all of its $200 billion in retirement obligations to its Bermuda affiliate.
那家保险公司由一家私募股权公司所有。那家公司向数据中心项目提供贷款。私募股权公司然后将这些贷款出售给它所拥有的保险公司。
That insurance company is owned by a private equity company. That company makes loans to data center projects. The private equity company then sells those loans to the insurance company that it owns.
这些贷款的价值取决于其模型所说的价值。评级来自一家行业付费的公司，而负债已被转移到百慕大，我们无法看到。如果这些贷款出现问题，保险公司将承担损失。如果保险公司无法覆盖，担保基金将承担。
如果担保基金支付，其他保险公司必须覆盖。然后他们以州税抵免的形式收回这笔钱，这意味着州最终吸收它，而州当然就是你的税款。
The loans are worth whatever their model says it's worth. The rating comes from a company that the industry is paying and the liability has been moved offshore to Bermuda where we can't see it. And if those loans go bad, the insurance company takes the hit. If the insurance company can't cover it, the guarantee fund does. And if the guarantee fund pays out, the other insurers have to cover it. And then they get that money back as a credit against their state taxes which means the state ultimately absorbs it and the state is of course your tax dollars.
我们的保险公司持有不在任何地方交易的私人贷款，它们的价值取决于其模型所说的价值，它们的数字是960亿美元。它正在上升。那是针对日本的。美国没有数字。我们只有百慕大。
Our insurers own private loans that don't trade anywhere and they're worth whatever their model says they're worth and their number is $96 billion. It's going up. That's for Japan. The US doesn't have a number. We just have Bermuda.
但这就是为什么日本对美国如此重要。这就是为什么我们帮助支撑他们的货币，因为日本持有大量美国国债。他们的日元，他们的货币正在走弱。他们需要购买更多来保持其强势。他们可以出售美国国债来做到这一点。
所以美国说：“请不要那样做，日本。我们将从你那里拿走我们的美国国债。我们将出售我们的欧洲国债。这里有一些钱。”因为如果美国不拯救日本，日本可能会开始抛售美国国债，这会导致美国利率上升。
因此，我在这个视频中解释的一切都会变得更加昂贵。所有私人信贷和所有债务都会变得更加昂贵，并可能炸毁我们的市场，因为这一切只有在借贷成本保持低廉的假设下才能运作。
But that's why Japan is so important to the US. That's why we're helping up prop up their currency because Japan holds a huge amount of US treasuries. their yen, their money is weakening. They need to buy more of it to keep it strong. They could sell US treasuries to do that. So the US is like, "Please don't do that, Japan. We will take our US treasuries from you here. We'll sell our European Treasury bonds. Here's some money." Because if the US does not come to Japan's rescue, Japan could start dumping US treasuries, which would then cause interest rates to go up here in the US. And so everything in this video that I explained would get even more expensive. All the private credit and all that debt, it gets way more expensive and potentially blows up our markets because all of this only works under the assumption that borrowing money stays cheap.
现在，我不认为有人能告诉你这些何时会重要。或者也许它不会重要。也许人工智能的建设会得到回报，市场再继续运行一两年，这些都不重要，但感觉我们在2008年之后建立了一个系统，专门为了让我们能看到事情的发生。
而且似乎我们一点一点地重新创造了它，只是换了不同的角色，多了一些额外的步骤。
Now, I don't think anyone can tell you when any of this matters. Or maybe it won't matter. Maybe the AI buildout pays off and the market just keeps on going for another year or two and none of this is important, but it feels like we built a system after 2008 specifically so we could see the stuff coming. And it seems like bit by bit we kind of recreated it just with different characters and with a little more extra steps.