Schwab Network 对 $APO 的判断变化

频道资料 →本频道有 11 位标注的说话人:BFA and JP Morgan、Bank of America、Berenberg、CEO、Citizens、JP Morgan Chase、Morgan Stanley、Oppenheimer、Truist、UBS、Wall Street Journal共 1 条
2026-09-24看跌
《Tony Zhang Sees Weakness Under SPX & NDX Surface, Offers UUP & APO Options Trades》
由于资产管理公司退出环境艰难,Apollo面临下行风险,可能跌向110美元;看空立场。

我看到你也在关注 Apollo,但你观察 Apollo 的角度处在完全相反的一端。那么,请向我解释一下你的投资逻辑。

Well, I see that you are also looking at Apollo , but you are standing on the other side of the spectrum here as you observe Apollo. So, explain your thesis to me here.

我关注 Apollo,仅仅是因为私募股权有所反弹。尽管今年早些时候我们看到其中一些标的承压,但到目前为止它们已经回升。现在,这些已经回升的标的中,有一些开始显现出一些疲软。近期,Apollo 股价从 115 美元的水平反弹,上涨至 140 美元区间,如今又开始回落至 120 美元区间。

我认为这里可能还会有更多下行,尤其是对那些一直在通过退出投资组合公司来为股东创造回报的资产管理公司而言,因为环境已使它们难以做到这一点。这正是我们看到这些管理公司出现一些下滑的原因。

对于 Apollo,我会等到 10 月 30 日周度期权到期,这给了我们大约 6 周的时间。我打算以大约市价买入一份垂直看跌期权,尝试以 126 买入看跌期权、以 110 卖出看跌期权。

110 的看跌期权实际上代表了今年早些时候我们看到的低位水平。通过以今天的价格瞄准那些更低的下行水平,你可以为这个借方价差支付大约 5 美元,这将给你带来略高于二比一的风险回报比。

如果你对金融板块有敞口,这同样能保护你免受该板块进一步下行的影响。

I'm looking at Apollo simply because private equity has rebounded a bit. Although we saw some pressure on some of these names earlier this year, they have recovered so far. Now some of these names that have recovered are beginning to show some weakness here.

Recently, Apollo stock rebounded from the $115 level , trading upwards to the $140 range, and is now beginning to decline again to the $120 range. This is where I really think there may be more downturn, particularly for asset managers who have been exiting their portfolio companies to generate returns for shareholders, as the environment has become difficult for them to do so.

This is exactly what we have seen some decline in for these managers. For Apollo, I will wait until the weekly options expire on October 30, which gives us about 6 weeks of time.

I am looking to buy a vertical put option at approximately the market price , attempting to buy the put option at 126 and sell the put options at 110 for that. The put options at 110 effectively represent the low levels we saw earlier this year.

By targeting those lower downside levels today, you can pay around $5 for that debit spread, and that will give you a risk-to-reward ratio of slightly more than two to one. This again protects you from any further downturn in the financial sector if you have exposure to that particular sector.