Daniel Pronk 对 $APP 的判断变化

All right, let's now move on to the fifth and final stock that I want to talk about in this video. And this is the one that I have started to buy and add to my portfolio. Now, full disclosure, I want to make it extremely clear. I am keeping this one as a very small position because I am considering it a little bit more speculative until I continue to see increased improvements from the business and I guess I should let you know that this stock is apploving with the ticker symbol app. So for now I am leaving it a small position and as my conviction grows and as I continue to see execution I will continue to grow my position.

Now, full disclosure, I want to make it extremely clear. I am keeping this one as a very small position because I am considering it a little bit more speculative until I continue to see increased improvements from the business and I guess I should let you know that this stock is apploving with the ticker symbol app. So for now I am leaving it a small position and as my conviction grows and as I continue to see execution I will continue to grow my position.

So for now I am leaving it a small position and as my conviction grows and as I continue to see execution I will continue to grow my position. But let's talk about this stock now very quickly. Apploving is specifically an advertising business on mobile games. That is their entire niche and that is where they dominate. They have over 1 billion daily active users that see their advertisements every single day. And they act as the intermediary between the advertiser and actually placing the app in front of a user wherever they think that it would best suit the user.

Apploving is specifically an advertising business on mobile games. That is their entire niche and that is where they dominate. They have over 1 billion daily active users that see their advertisements every single day. And they act as the intermediary between the advertiser and actually placing the app in front of a user wherever they think that it would best suit the user.

That is their entire niche and that is where they dominate. They have over 1 billion daily active users that see their advertisements every single day. And they act as the intermediary between the advertiser and actually placing the app in front of a user wherever they think that it would best suit the user.

Now, the reason the stock has fallen so much after earnings is because they had a slight revenue miss by 1%. And I think the market is freaking out way too much because they still grew revenue by over 50% in the most recent quarter. And they are guiding for another 47%

And I think the market is freaking out way too much because they still grew revenue by over 50% in the most recent quarter.

And they are guiding for another 47% year-over-year revenue growth rate in the third quarter. So yes, the revenue growth is decelerating and they are projecting it to continue decelerating, but it's still growing extremely well and the business is trading for under 17 times forward free cash flow.

To put it simply, I think the stock is now priced for about 5 to 10% annual growth and the business is still seeing well into the 40% growth rates. So the price to growth I think is just at a total disconnect which is why I have started to buy into the stock.

So let me show you some of their KPIs here on Stock Unlock very quickly now. And the first one is obviously their revenue. Now Apploven's historical revenue is a little bit noisy because they did own gaming businesses to gather data. So the revenue growth not being very impressive is when they owned actual gaming studios. So what I like to do is go and take a look at their software platform KPI here because this is the business's growth as it stands today. This is their advertising engine, their software platform revenue, which is pretty much the entire business as it stands right now. And here you can see that in the trailing 12 months, their software revenue has been 6.83 billion. And it has been compounding by about 89% annually since 2020. Now, if we turn on the percent growth rates and zoom in here, we can see that the growth rates have been decelerating, but the business is still growing by 60% on a trailing 12 months basis. If we turn over to a quarterly basis once again we can see that the revenue growth rates have decelerated to about 53% in the most recent quarter but the business is still growing very very rapidly.

And the first one is obviously their revenue. Now Apploven's historical revenue is a little bit noisy because they did own gaming businesses to gather data. So the revenue growth not being very impressive is when they owned actual gaming studios.

So what I like to do is go and take a look at their software platform KPI here because this is the business's growth as it stands today. This is their advertising engine, their software platform revenue, which is pretty much the entire business as it stands right now.

And here you can see that in the trailing 12 months, their software revenue has been 6.83 billion. And it has been compounding by about 89% annually since 2020.

Now, if we turn on the percent growth rates and zoom in here, we can see that the growth rates have been decelerating, but the business is still growing by 60% on a trailing 12 months basis.

If we turn over to a quarterly basis once again we can see that the revenue growth rates have decelerated to about 53% in the most recent quarter but the business is still growing very very rapidly. So now let's take a quick look at Apple's free cash flow and in the trailing 12 months they have produced about 4.53 billion. Now, in the most recent quarter, they were hit with a large amount of international taxes, which is why their free cash flow was down for that one quarter. But over the longer term, management said that they believe their free cash flow margin will remain extremely high. And while we're on that topic here, we can see that even with that large one-time tax hit in the most recent quarter, Apple has produced a 66.3% trailing 12 months free cash flow margin with their average over the past about 18 months being 70%. And they believe that they can maintain around a 70% free cash flow margin going forward. So this is a highly profitable business. It has even higher profit margins than Palunteer and it is still growing its top line by over 50% with roughly 47% revenue growth expected for the next quarter.

Now, in the most recent quarter, they were hit with a large amount of international taxes, which is why their free cash flow was down for that one quarter. But over the longer term, management said that they believe their free cash flow margin will remain extremely high.

And while we're on that topic here, we can see that even with that large one-time tax hit in the most recent quarter, Apple has produced a 66.3% trailing 12 months free cash flow margin with their average over the past about 18 months being 70%.

And they believe that they can maintain around a 70% free cash flow margin going forward. So this is a highly profitable business.

It has even higher profit margins than Palunteer and it is still growing its top line by over 50% with roughly 47% revenue growth expected for the next quarter.

So now let's take a look at App's forward price to earnings ratio and it's trading for 16.7 times forward earnings. And you can clearly see that this is on the low end of how the stock has historically traded. Let's also take a look at its forward price to free cash flow. And it's currently trading for about 16.6 times forward free cash flow. Again, while the business is still growing by over 40%.

And you can clearly see that this is on the low end of how the stock has historically traded. Let's also take a look at its forward price to free cash flow. And it's currently trading for about 16.6 times forward free cash flow.

Again, while the business is still growing by over 40%. So, let me show you a quick DCF on Apploven now. And on an annualized basis going forward, I believe that this business is down doing about $5.2 billion in free cash flow. So, over the next 3 years in this DCF, I have them growing free cash flow by 15% annually and trading for 20 times free cash flow. Now, if we take a look on a trailing 12 months basis, the business is actually trading for about 22 times free cash flow right now. So, this is factoring in some more multiple compression and simply saying that the business will continue to grow free cash flow by 15% annually, which is a significant deceleration from the growth rates the business is currently seeing. And in this DCF, I still get a 17% compounded annual growth rate to the share price, a fair value of 376 bucks, and a future stock price of $500 per share. And I want to make this extremely clear. I think that this is a very very conservative DCF for apploving. The CEO believes that the business can actually continue to compound by 30% annually over the longer term. And if the business can do so, then I think the multiple fairly could be at least 25. And in this scenario, the compounded annual growth rate to the share price is roughly 43%. The fair value would be 678 bucks and the future share price would be $900 or about a 200% return over the next 3 years. And again, this is simply the business achieving what the CEO believes the growth rates could be over the longer term and getting back to a 25 price to free cash flow, which I think is more than justified and fair for this business. So, in a very conservative DCF, I think Apploven could still produce strong returns. And in a more realistic DCF, I think the returns are absolutely stellar. And this is the entire reason why I have taken on a smaller position in this business.

And on an annualized basis going forward, I believe that this business is down doing about $5.2 billion in free cash flow. So, over the next 3 years in this DCF, I have them growing free cash flow by 15% annually and trading for 20 times free cash flow.

Now, if we take a look on a trailing 12 months basis, the business is actually trading for about 22 times free cash flow right now.

So, this is factoring in some more multiple compression and simply saying that the business will continue to grow free cash flow by 15% annually, which is a significant deceleration from the growth rates the business is currently seeing.

And in this DCF, I still get a 17% compounded annual growth rate to the share price, a fair value of 376 bucks, and a future stock price of $500 per share. And I want to make this extremely clear. I think that this is a very very conservative DCF for apploving.

The CEO believes that the business can actually continue to compound by 30% annually over the longer term. And if the business can do so, then I think the multiple fairly could be at least 25.

And in this scenario, the compounded annual growth rate to the share price is roughly 43%. The fair value would be 678 bucks and the future share price would be $900 or about a 200% return over the next 3 years.

And again, this is simply the business achieving what the CEO believes the growth rates could be over the longer term and getting back to a 25 price to free cash flow, which I think is more than justified and fair for this business.

So, in a very conservative DCF, I think Apploven could still produce strong returns. And in a more realistic DCF, I think the returns are absolutely stellar. And this is the entire reason why I have taken on a smaller position in this business.

But for Apploven, as I said, I am keeping my position small at just over 1% of my portfolio until I continue to see continued progress and strong growth from the company and its future earnings results. But the entire thesis really comes down to the fact that this business is very profitable. It has extremely high free cash flow margins. It's still growing by over 40% per year and its forward price to free cash flow is only 16. Now the price to growth disconnect is one of the widest I have ever seen in the market. And that's enough for me to throw in some cash and say, you know what, let's see what happens here. Because even if the business continues to grow by very modest growth rates, it should produce double- digit returns. So that's why I have bought some app in my portfolio. I'm going to continue tracking this one and I thought that last quarter was still pretty dang good.

But the entire thesis really comes down to the fact that this business is very profitable. It has extremely high free cash flow margins. It's still growing by over 40% per year and its forward price to free cash flow is only 16.

Now the price to growth disconnect is one of the widest I have ever seen in the market.

And that's enough for me to throw in some cash and say, you know what, let's see what happens here. Because even if the business continues to grow by very modest growth rates, it should produce double- digit returns.

So that's why I have bought some app in my portfolio. I'm going to continue tracking this one and I thought that last quarter was still pretty dang good.