Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 对 $ASML 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
下一个是ASML。从业务角度来看，风险要小得多。然而，从价格角度来看存在风险，因为我们一年多前讨论过ASML。这里的风险和回报不错。它位于象限图的这一部分，我们会在那里讨论其他买入机会。
但后来发生了什么？股价从560美元涨到了接近1,500美元。业务本身没有变化。之前的市盈率在20多到30多倍之间。现在是50多倍。这改变了长期投资者的风险与回报状况。
Next one, ASML. Much less risk there from a business perspective. However, risk from a price perspective because we discussed ISML a year and something ago. Good risk and reward here. It was on this part of the quadrant where we'll discuss other buys. But then what happened? The stock price went from 560 to almost 1,500. The business is still the same. The P ratio was in the 30s 20s. Now it is in the 50s. That changes the risk and reward for a long-term investor.
如果我稍微看一下盈利情况，好的，总净销售额为430亿至450亿美元。如果我们看他们的投资者日，我们已经处于销售额的低端。他们预测销售额的高端将在2030年达到。然后如果我稍微看一下净利润占销售额的比例上升到30%，一切看起来都不错。
所以假设他们在2030年达到700亿美元的收入，乘以30%，那就是210亿美元的利润。在6000亿美元的市值下，210亿美元的利润意味着未来的市盈率大约是30倍，或者略低一点。
If I look a little bit at the earnings, okay, total net sales 43 to 45 billion. If we look at their investor day here, we are already at the lower end of sales. They project the higher end of sales will be reached by 2030. And then if I look a little bit at net income as percentage of sales going up 30%, everything looks good. So let's say they reach 70 billion in revenues by 2030 times 30% that's 21 billion in profits. 21 billion in profits on a 600 billion market cap is still down the road a P ratio of what 30 a little bit less.
然而，我投资是为了让资金翻倍，比如说在几年内。为了让资金翻倍，ASML的市值需要达到1.2万亿美元，即使在那时，五年、六年或七年后，市盈率仍然很高，就像现在一样。它能维持吗？有可能，但这太冒险了。
我看到ASML从高风险变为低风险，现在又变回高风险。如果泡沫破裂且股价下跌，我们会再次将其移到象限图中的某个位置，届时它将是一个风险较低的买入机会，因为57倍的市盈率不属于价值投资。
However, I'm investing to double my money let's say in a few years. So to double my money the market cap of ISML needs to go to 1.2 trillion still have a big P ratio like now five, six, seven years down the road. Will it hold? It might but it is too risky and I have seen ISML risky go to less risky now it's risky again if the bubble pops and it goes down we will move it somewhere here again in the quadrant and then it will be a less risky buy because a P ratio 57 is not value investing
Uber看起来是一个很好的买入机会，但在象限图上它属于“赌注”一侧，这是一个特别视频，下周将讨论所有这些赌注，其中有一些非常有趣的赌注，请订阅以获取该内容。
Uber looks like a great buy but on the quadrant goes on the bet sides which is a special video that will discuss all those bets some very interesting bets next week subscribe for that