Schwab Network 对 $BLK 的判断变化
你想继续下一个吗?我们这里有 BlackRock。图表非常不同,波动性更大,今年基本持平。Jessica,你在 BlackRock 看到了什么?同样,它出现在同一个屏幕上,我是按总债务占资产百分比排序的。
所以随着我们往下看,这个比例会略高一些。这个公司的总债务占资产百分比是 8.5%。他们的自由现金流同比增长非常高,我不得不仔细核对那些超过 77% 的数字。所以这可能不一定可持续。
30 天 EPS 预估修正仍然是正面的。而且正如你所说,回报相对持平,但与之前相比仍然是正面的。
Do you want to move to your next one though? We've got Black Rockck here. Very different chart much more volatile flat pretty much on the year here. What are you seeing in Black Rockck Jessica? So again, fell on the same screen and I have these in order of total debt as a percentage of assets. So it's getting a little higher as we go down the list. This one, the total debt as a percentage of assets is 8.5%. They have really high free cash flow quarter over quarter growth. I had to double check those numbers of over 77%. So that may not necessarily be sustainable. Still some positive 30-day revisions to their EPS estimates. And the ones return, like you said, relatively flat. still positive in comparison to the previous.
现在从估值角度看它们更有吸引力,远期市盈率低于 21 倍。他们今年的 EPS 增长为 59%。这很大程度上与私募市场扩张有关。记住,他们与 Nvidia 在融资方面有关联。所以这是获得 BlackRock 广泛投资组合敞口的好方法。
但他们还有潜在的合作伙伴关系,甚至与三菱合作,这可能加强他们在日本增长中的私募信贷市场的地位。分析师仍然非常看好,但现金流正在增强。这就是我在将这一层添加到我的股票选择中时关注的,再次从宏观角度看,我们关注债务市场,这意味着从微观角度看,我们也需要添加这一层。
Now they are more attractive from a valuation perspective trading under 21 forward um PE ratio. They've got 59% current year EPS growth. A lot of that has to do with the private market expansions. Remember they are associated with Nvidia is doing in the financing aspect. So this is a a great way to get exposure to a really a broad portfolio within Black Rockck. But they have potential partnerships even in line with Miss Msubishi, which could strengthen their position in Japan's growing private credit market. Analysts are still really bullish, but the cash flow is strengthening. And that's what I'm paying attention to as I'm adding this layer onto my stock picks is again from a macro perspective, we're paying attention to the debt markets, which means from a micro perspective, we need to add on that layer as well.
好的,Kevin。那么让我们深入看看这张图表。我提到这肯定是一个与上一个非常不同的图表。波动性更大,有很多高点和低点,但总体而言,今年上涨了 5%,所以表现不如市场。你在技术面看到了什么?
All right, Kevin. So then let's dive into this chart here. I mentioned certainly a very different looking chart than the last one. More volatile uh lots of highs and lows but overall I mean up 5% on the year so underperforming the market. What are you seeing in the technical setup?
嗯,但从 6 月底 7 月初以来有一个非常好的走势。所以我们看到了大约两个月的反弹,上涨了 25%,达到 1185 的关口。我们从那里回撤了,现在这看起来像是中期或短期窗口内可能被视为支撑区域的位置。
我有几个水平要监控。所以 20 日均线就在我们上方。今天已经突破了它,最后一道防线,至少在短期内,可能是今天的低点。有趣的是,今天的低点代表了 23% 的回撤区域,这与我们在 7 月底 8 月初突破的牛市旗形形态相吻合,达到那些 1185 的高点。
但低于那个水平的更值得关注的是 1100,它具有良好的支撑性。它是过去一年大部分时间这个弱势区域的中高点。所以 5 月的峰值也在 1100 左右。这也是从 6 月低点上涨的 38% 回撤位。
但还要看它下方的 50 日均线,紫色那条。它正在赶上 1100 的关口,可能提供额外的短期支撑汇合。所以我们也关注那个。但很高兴看到 50 日均线向上穿越 200 日均线,在更长的时间框架内给我们所谓的金叉。
但我们显然看到在短期大幅上涨之后有一点喘息。在那种走势之后,我们可能不应该对这种程度的回撤感到惊讶。
Well a really great move though since late June early July. So we've seen about a two-month rally where we rallied 25% up to that 1185 ledge. We've pulled back from there and now this looks like what uh in the intermediate or shorter term window could be viewed as a zone of support. And I've got a couple of levels to monitor. So we've got the 20-day right above us. Having taken that out with today's action, the the last line of defense actually shortterm at least could be today's low. So interestingly enough, today's low represents the 23% retracement zone uh which is coincident with the bull flag breakout we made in late July, early August to those 1185 peaks. Uh but the level below that that really calls out is 1,00 nice and supportive. It was the mid high of this uh weakening area for a lot of the last year. So May's peak was right around 1100 as well. Uh that's also the 38% retracement of this move up off those June lows. But also look at that 50-day moving average below it in purple. that's catching up to that 1100 ledge, possibly providing additional confluence of short range support. So, we're monitoring that as well. But, it is nice to see that 50-day crossing the upside uh crossing to the upside through the 200 day, giving us the so-called golden cross here over a longer term time frame. Uh but we're clearly seeing just a little bit of a breather after after a fantastic short-term move. uh we probably should not be surprised to witness this level of a pullback following a move of that nature.
当然。所以,我接下来要展示的是 90 天图表,再次回到大约 7 月 1 日,或者 6 月 1 日,抱歉,并显示我们处于上升趋势中。我使用线性回归有几个原因。但注意 1110 的关口再次出现,200 周期倾斜移动平均线向上穿过那个区域,以及线性回归通道的中点,即最佳拟合线。
所有这些数据汇聚在 1100 附近,再次强化了那个价格关口。所以,RSI 看起来有点超卖,但我们知道这并不意味着反弹即将到来,但至少对 1100 有支撑。当然,一如既往,技术分析需要提醒的是,它不能告诉我们接下来会发生什么。
它只是帮助我们理解如何管理风险。所以,如果我们跌到 1100 并反弹,那么这给交易者提供了一个在 1100 关口管理风险的好方法。但当然,跌破 1100 意味着我们可能会看到额外的短期疲软,多头也应该为此做好准备。
所以那个 1100 在短期内对 BlackRock 来说将是一个非常关键的价格区间,如果我们触及它的话。
Absolutely. So, what I've got next is a 90-day chart once more going back to essentially July 1 and uh looking or June 1, excuse me, and and showing that we've got this uptrend in place. I'm lo using linear regression for a couple of reasons. But notice that 1110 ledge once more, the 200 period sloping moving average upward through uh that area and the uh midpoint here of the linear regression channel, the line of best fit. All of that confluence of data coming together at about 1,00 again strengthens that price ledge for us. So, um, we're looking a little oversold on the RSI and yet we know doesn't mean a bounce is imminent, but it's at least supportive of,00. And certainly, as always with the technicals, the reminder needs to be that it doesn't tell us what's coming next. It just helps us understand how to manage that risk. So, if we get down to,00 and bounce, well, then that gives traders a good way to manage the risk at that 1100 ledge. But of course, a move through 1100 means that we probably witness additional short-term weakness and bulls should be prepared for that as well. So that 1100 [clears throat] is going to be a pretty crux price range for Black Rockck here in the near term if we visit it.
现在我们在那个水平上方大约 37 美元。我们在 1137.03,今天下跌约 1.6%。
And right now we are about $37 north of that level. We're at 113703 down about 1.6% today.