Dividendology 对 $CLX 的判断变化

Now, the first stock we're going to be analyzing is going to be Clorox. Clorox just announced a dividend increase of 0.8%. So a less than 1% dividend increase. A lot of the times, that can be a huge red flag.

So, in the last year, we can see they're down by about 12%. Year-to-date, up by about 4%, but in the last 5 years now, down by nearly 39%. Now, what's interesting is when we look at the dividend history, they've grown dividends for a very long time. They're approaching becoming a dividend king with 50 consecutive years of dividend increases.

Now, one of the things we have to keep in mind is a lot of the times, stocks will simply grow those dividend payouts because it's become an expectation from the shareholders. Now, the reality is, sometimes that doesn't maximize shareholder value. Sometimes growing the dividend, if it's done at the price of weakening the company and weakening the balance sheet, it's not always a good sign.

So, if we jump over to our dividend breakdown sheet, we can see Clorox is yielding around 4.73%. In historically, they have been growing dividends. Now, they haven't paid their last 2026 dividend yet, so keep that in mind, but they have 48 consecutive years of dividend increases.

But, it's not hard to see the red flag. Free cash flow payout ratio is sitting at 148%. This has been an issue for the company for a while now. Free cash flow is declining, but they're continuing to grow dividends, so naturally that FCF payout ratio continues to climb higher.

So, really the question we need to ask is what's free cash flow going to look like moving forward? Will it start to cover the dividend payout? And to answer that question, you have to do a little bit of digging, but here's what you'll find. They stated, "We expect another year of strong cash flow generation that should be in line with our targeted range of 11 to 13%." Now, what they're meaning by this is they expect free cash flow to equal 11 to 13% of their sales.

So, based on its sales growth guidance, that implies roughly 835 million to 996 million in free cash flow, which if we jump back over to the dividend breakdown sheet, we can see that would cover their dividend in 2027.

But with that being said, the dividend would still be eating up the vast majority of free cash flow. So, from a capital allocation perspective, they're certainly in a difficult situation, and that's evident when you see things like a dividend increase of just 0.8%. They're barely hanging on to that dividend growth.

And of course, that does quite a bit in terms of valuation. If we look at them on the valuation sheet, if we jump over to the dividend discount model, this is where the math gets interesting. Zoom in and take a close look at what we're looking at. If we assume that Clorox grows its dividend at 2% moving forward, then the stock is worth about $77 a share. That would imply 26% downside even from current prices, despite the fact it's already down about 38, 39% in the last 5 years.

So, that is certainly concerning when you consider the fact that right now the dividend is in a very difficult situation, and they just grew the dividend by 0.8%. However, if you do look at analyst estimates, you will see earnings growth is expected to pick up over the next couple of years at 5%, 9%, 7%. If they can actually achieve that level of earnings growth, then naturally dividend growth over the long term should pick up.

But purely from a valuation perspective, despite the fact this is a high-yield stock, it doesn't seem to have a lot of upside. There's still a lot of uncertainty.