Daniel Pronk 对 $CRM 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
然后我们将快速讨论似乎是SAS末日的结束，以及为什么这么多软件股如此强劲地上涨，Viva Systems在过去几天上涨了超过20%，Salesforce也是如此。
Then we are going to quickly discuss what seems to be the SAS apocalypse ending and why so many software stocks have been rallying so hard with Viva Systems up over 20% over the past couple of days along with Salesforce.
Salesforce也发生了完全相同的事情，因为Salesforce在同一天发布了财报，而且Salesforce的股价现在已经上涨了超过25%，我相信，这只是凭我的记忆，但该股对其财报的反应也非常非常好。
The exact same thing happened to Salesforce, because Salesforce reported on the same day, and Salesforce stock has now rallied by over 25%, I believe, just going off of my memory here, but the stock also responded very, very well to its earnings report.
所以，看起来Veeva Systems和Salesforce的财报结果已经消散了软件行业的担忧，现在所有软件股都被大幅推高，甚至ServiceNow和Adobe的股票也看到了相当多的势头。
So, it seems like Veeva Systems and Salesforce earnings results have kind of dissipated the fears in the software industry, and now all software has been being bid up quite significantly, with even ServiceNow and even Adobe stock seeing quite a bit of momentum.
所以，现在让我们对Salesforce做同样的事情，快速看一下它的业绩。在这里我们可以看到，其收入同比增长了11%。其剩余履约义务也增长了11%。其总订阅和支持收入按固定汇率计算增长了11%。其Agent Force应用同比增长了8%。
So, now let's do the same thing with Salesforce and take a quick look at its results as well. And here we can see that its revenue came in at 11% year-over-year growth. Its remaining performance obligations also grew by 11%. Its total subscription and support revenue grew by 11% on a constant currency basis. And its Agent Force apps grew by 8% year-over-year.
在我看来，这不是一份爆炸性的报告。Salesforce仍在增长，表现非常好，但其增长率并没有真正加速多少，而且它仍然只以每年11%的速度增长。
This is not a blowout report, in my opinion. Salesforce is still growing, does very good, but its growth rates are not really accelerating that much, and it's still growing by only 11% per year.
然而，该股当日上涨超过20%。如果我们看一下他们的指引，他们确实上调了今年的营收增长指引，增加了2亿美元，但今年营收增长仍仅预计约为11.5%。同时，预计自由现金流同比仅增长约4.5%，这并不出色。这不是Salesforce的一份出色财报。
However, the stock responded by being up well over 20% on the day. If we take a look at their guidance, they did up their guidance for revenue to grow by an extra $200 million this year, but it's still only projecting growth of about 11.5% to revenue this year. It's also expecting its free cash flow to only grow by about 4.5% on a year-over-year basis, which is nothing stellar. This is not a stellar report from Salesforce.
如果我们快速看一下Salesforce的营收并查看其增长率，我们可以看到其营收增速从2025年第一季度的约8%加速至现在的约11.2%，但你可以看到，这并非比上季度有大幅加速。
这是一个非常非常轻微的加速，当我只看这张图表时，它并不让我觉得论点已经改变，或者业务基本面与3个月前相比有任何根本性不同。
And if we go take a quick look at Salesforce revenue and turn on its percent growth rates, we can see that its revenue has accelerated from about 8% in the first quarter of 2025 to about 11.2% now, but you can see that this is not really a large acceleration from last quarter. It is a very, very slight acceleration, and when I'm just taking a look at this chart, it's not suggesting to me that the thesis has changed or anything really with the business is fundamentally different than it was 3 months ago.