StockCharts TV 对 $CRWD 的判断变化

There are other software names that I think are even more uh important to watch and that will get us to chart number two. Crowd Strike. There a couple names that I sort of considered putting into this uh into this second slot of the emerging software trade. I think Crowd Strike stands out to me because it's just a really good chart.

Think about what we talked about with the chart of Microsoft and what what made it a constructive uh you know technical configuration. Higher highs and higher lows above upward sloping moving averages. momentum strong, relative strength strong and everything that I just said I think generally describes Microsoft also generally describes crowd strike holdings right we can see this big move higher off of the low in February and the acceleration that we saw in May then we have a number of pullbacks to the 21-day EMA a couple times to the 50-day moving average but every one of those pullbacks has been bought as buyers have come in dip buyers have come in and pushed the price to a new swing highs the fact that we keep making higher highs, the fact that we keep making higher lows just reinforces the fact that CrowdStrike is generally making progress to the upside.

The relative performance going to the bottom panel uh is probably the most compelling part of this chart. If you think about how the benchmarks are kind of stalled out here, Crowd Strike, the relative strength is going up and to the right, and for the last 6 months, it's been a fantastic relative outperformer.

If there's anything that concerns me about the chart of Crowd Strike, and this is honestly why I wanted to include it as one of the top 10 charts to watch, is because of the declining momentum.

One of the warning signs you look for when a stock is in a nice uptrend of higher highs is to look and make sure that the momentum is supporting that. Ideally, we want stocks making new highs on stronger upside momentum. So, ideally, we want the RSI to be overbought every time we make that new high. If we start making new highs and the RSI doesn't get to the overbought region, that might tell me that there's a lessening momentum, right? There's sort of less steam in the engine, less gas in the tank, whatever metaphor you want to use to describe something that's running out of fuel. That's kind of what this represents.

And if you look those highs in June, July, August, and now late August, every one of those has seen the RSI decline a little further. So, we're actually making a new all-time high today on Monday, August 31st, but the RSI is actually well below the overbought region. So, I think we have a bearish momentum divergence working here. That's a bit of a concern.

Overall, I say I think the trend is strong as long as we keep that pattern of higher highs and higher lows. So, the most important thing to watch on this chart in the month of September is that next pullback. Do we make a higher low? Do we pull back to above 182? Ideally, do we hold the 50-day moving average? That's been important uh line in the sand for the stock uh for the last couple months.

So, I would say overall crowd strike uh for me innocent until proven guilty. Uh but those are some of the things that concern me. The lack of momentum support and then just watching to see what the pullback would look like, you know, assuming we get one of those here in the month of September.