The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $CSGP 的判断变化
让我们做Co-Star。在10年时间范围内，我实际上——这是一个激进的观点吗？我会把它放在S级。激进的观点。你这么认为吗？我认为核心业务相当强劲。
Let's do co-star. Um, on 10ear horizon, I actually Is this a hot take? I would put it at I would put it at S tier. >> Hot take. Is that you think so? >> I think I mean I think the core business is quite strong.
对我个人来说，我会凭直觉把它放在……但你比我更了解这家公司，因为是你推介的。对我来说，今天的价值可能比10年后或10年后的价值更好。
Um to me personally I would have put it just intuitively but you understand the company much better than I because you pitched it. Um to me it seemed like value today is probably better than value 10 years time or 10 years um down the road.
但我不能确切指出为什么，因为你也可以争辩——我理解那个论点——情况可能相反，因为基本上股票下跌只是因为他们目前花了很多钱来搞清楚homes.com，一旦那停止，核心业务就像你争辩的那样是S级。
Um, but I couldn't necessarily pinpoint why exactly because you could also argue and I get that argument that it's the other way around because basically the stock is only going down because they currently spend a lot of money right now um to figure out homes.com and as soon as that stops the core business is as you would argue S tier.
所以，我当然也能看到那一点。对我来说，这真的归结为：有没有人能像他们那样做？我认为那是我们必须回答的问题。然后，对该产品还有需求吗？
Um, so I could definitely see that as well. Um, I think for me it really does come down to can anybody can anybody do what they do? I think that's the question we have to answer. And then is there still um demand for that product?
我认为如果我们对两个问题都回答是，而且当前估值低，我认为A到S级肯定是公平的。然后，我当然会相信你的判断，因为你确实对Co-Star做了更多研究。所以我认为如果你说它应该是S级，我认为那是有道理的。
I think if we do answer both with yes um and the valuation currently is low I think A to ST is certainly fair. Um and then you know I would certainly trust your judgment because again like you did much more research on on coaster. So I think if you say it it should be ST here. Um I think it makes sense.
你会说今天的价值更低还是相同水平？那会很有趣。是的，今天的价值。是的，我们可以深入那个话题，但只看10年期数据，他们有40年的商业房地产数据。他们逐栋建筑地收集数据。他们有一大群人出去记录谁拥有这栋建筑、平方英尺是多少、当前租户是谁，所有这些不同的信息，还有房产税是多少。
Would you say it's lower on value today or same level? That would be interesting. >> Yeah. Well, the value today. Yeah, we that's there is a tangent we can go in there, but just looking at the the 10-year um they have 40 years of commercial real estate data. Um they've gone out building by building. They have a army of people that go out um and and you know document who owns the building, what's the square footage, uh the current tenants, all of these different things, what the property taxes are.
他们手动收集的数据量惊人，因为房地产存在于物理世界中。你可以获得很多虚拟事物的数据，但你需要实际去现实世界核实，确认这是当前租户，没有过时，以及这是市场租金率或房产税，或者这是空置率。
Um, you know the the unbelievable amount of data that they're you know manually collecting because real estate is uh exists in the physical world. Um and you know you can get uh you can have a lot of data on on things virtually. you need to actually go out into the real world and verify, okay, that this is the current tenant. It's not outdated. Uh, and this is, you know, the market rate for the rent or the property taxes or or, you know, this is the vacancy rate.
很多数据只能通过亲自访问物业、与业主、经纪人和代理商交谈来获得。
Um, you can only really get a lot of that data by, um, going and visiting the properties in person, speaking to the land owners, speaking to the brokers and agents.
重点是，CoStar拥有迄今为止最强大、数据最丰富的平台。他们就像是商业房地产界的彭博终端。当然，商业房地产是一个对经济至关重要的行业。它不会消失，我们永远都会有商业房地产。
Um, and point being, uh, KOSAR has by far the most robust and datari, uh, platform. They're sort of the Bloomberg terminal of commercial real estate. Uh, and of course, commercial real estate is an industry that is, um, you know, fundamental to the economy. It's not it's not going anywhere. Uh, we're always going to have commercial real estate.
所以只要CoStar继续拥有最深入的数据，而它确实以巨大优势拥有这些数据，我就非常放心，谈到10年后这还会不会是一个高质量的业务，绝对是，这就是为什么我说CoStar是S级，因为AI无法抓取和复制CoStar拥有的数据。
Um so you know so so long as CoStar continues to um have the deepest data which it does by a widewide margin um I feel very comfortable that you know just talking about will this still be a high quality business in 10 years from now um absolutely that's why I say co-star S tier just because um there's no AI cannot scrape uh and recreate the data that CoStar does have.
从估值角度来看，这里更有争议或更微妙。因为我认为它的排名也应该非常高。但如果只看数字，它们被大量homes.com支出扭曲了。我认为那是一次巨大的资本错配。
Um, from a valuation perspective, this is where it's more uh more controversial or more nuanced, I would say. Um, because I think it ranks, it should bring very very high as well. Um, but if you just look at the numbers, uh, they are distorted by this massive amount of homes.com spending. And I think that's been a huge misallocation of capital.
我认为这引发了关于CEO Andy Florence的真正问题。对我来说，这有点像扎克伯格和元宇宙的类比。这是一位创始人，他建立了一家了不起的公司，一路上做出了许多正确的决定。
而这也是一个非常重大的错误，我不想说灾难性的错误，但确实是非常重大的错误。
Um, I think that, uh, it it raises real questions about the the CEO, Andy Florence. Um, you know, it's sort of to me like, uh, a parallel to Zuckerberg and the metaverse. Um, this is a founder who has built an incredible company and made a lot of great decisions along the way. And, uh, this was also, I don't want to say cat a catastrophic mistake, but a very significant mistake that was made.
数亿美元的巨大错配。而且，当一切尘埃落定，这将花费他们超过10亿美元，而我认为他们最终不会剩下多少。我说的是homes.com。他们试图将其建为Zillow的替代品。我不太相信，不深入细节，但基本上Homes.com试图做Zillow所做的事情，但在幕后采用略有不同的商业模式。
我对他们的商业模式比Zillow更好没有太多信心。
um a huge misallocation of hundreds of millions of dollars. And um you know, it's uh when all is said and done, it's going to cost them well over a billion dollars um for uh something they're not going to really have, I don't think, much left uh left over. And what I'm talking about is is homes.com. Um they're trying to build it as an alternative to Zillow. Uh I I I'm not sold on uh not to get into the details, but basically Homes.com is trying to do what Zillow does. Um but with a slightly different business model behind the scenes, I don't have a ton of conviction in their business model being better than Zillow's.
总之，他们花了大量资金推广Homes.com。例如，他们投放了一系列超级碗广告，作为Zillow的替代品。问题是，我认为一旦他们停止广告支出，网站流量就会大幅下降。但重点是，没有太多剩余价值，他们从这些支出中获得的回报并不高。
And so, anyways, they've spent a ton of money trying to promote Homes.com. Um, they ran a bunch of Super Bowl ads, for example, as an alternative to uh Zillow. And the thing is, I think once they they turn off that ad spend, um, the traffic to the website is just going to fall just falls off dramatically. But the point being there's not a lot of residual value and they're not getting a very high return on all this spending.
公司已经意识到了这一点。有一位激进投资者介入。他们已经承诺，并且已经削减了在homes.com上的支出。他们承诺进一步削减。他们还承诺将大量资本用于回购。
Um, and the company has recognized this. They had an activist investor come in. Uh, they've promised to they've already already uh toned back spending on homes.com. They've promised to uh reduce it further. Uh, and they've also promised to put a significant amount of capital toward buybacks.
所以，如果你只看核心业务，剥离掉homes.com的支出，假设三到五年后这部分支出降至零或可以忽略不计，我不记得具体数字，但CoStar的市盈率大约是18到20倍，而我说过这是一个极其高质量的数据特许经营权，被颠覆的风险很低。
Uh and so really if you look at the core business and you just strip out the spending on homes.com and say that you know let's say in three to five years from now that that goes to zero um or you know something negligible uh I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but Kosar uh you know it's we're talking about something like 18 20 times earnings um for something that I said it like is an incredibly incredibly high quality uh data franchise um with a low risk of disruption.
所以我认为市场惩罚这只股票是正确的。他们犯了重大的资本配置错误。而且，我相信CoStar目前是标普500指数中今年表现最差的股票。
So I think rightly the stock the market has punished the stock. They made major cap um capital allocation mistakes. Uh and the stock co-star is actually I believe at the moment the worst performer in the S&P 500 year to date.
短期内，他们的盈利将继续受到homes.com支出的阻碍或拖累，但homes.com不是，这是一个资本误投，但对整个企业来说并不关键。
uh and the it's their earnings in the short term are going to continue to be um you know uh hindered or or hampered by um the spending on homes.com but homes.com is not uh it's a mis you know it's a misinvestment of capital um but it's not >> it it's not critical to uh the enterprise overall so
是的，对我来说重要的是，基本上10年的价值在于核心业务是S级。那也是他们赚钱的地方。我理解存在资本配置错误，但总的来说，我相信资本配置错误，取决于规模，是相当便宜地买入股票的好方式，如果核心业务仍然表现良好。
>> yeah I think what matters to me and that's basically the 10 year 10ear value is the core business is S tier. Um that's also where they make all of their money. And then I do get the point that there were capital allocation mistakes, but generally I believe capital allocation mistakes um depending on the scale are great way to enter stock um pretty cheaply if the core business is still doing great.
在这种情况下，如果你看估值，我认为在12个月内，CoStar下跌了65%。那是一次疯狂的回落。而且，我认为目前的市值大约是120亿美元。所以，你谈论的是超过100亿美元的市值损失。
如果你将其与homes.com的支出相比，你需要给那项投资加上超过10倍的负倍数才能解释股价的下跌。我相信如果你这样做，而核心业务仍然是S级，那么这只股票是便宜的。
In this case, if you look at the the valuation, I think over 12 months, um, Costa is down 65%. So that's an insane pullback. Um, and if you look at I think the the market cap right now is about 12 billion. Um, so you know, you're talking about more than 10 billion lost in value. And if you compare that to the spend on homes.com, you would need to put a negative multiple of more than 10 times on that um just to explain, you know, the value decline in the stock. And I believe if you do that and the core business is still S tier, the business is cheap.
我认为这是一个高质量的业务，受到了应有的惩罚，但我认为钟摆摆得太远了，就卖出这家公司而言。
Um I think it's a high quality business that has been punished rightfully, but I think the pendulum has swung just way too far um in terms of selling of the company.
我不喜欢的是，我在推介中说过，资本配置的原因，因为显然Andy Florence与Zillow的CEO之间存在个人问题。
What I didn't like, and I say that in the pitch, is the reason for the capital allocation because apparently um there's a personal problem that Andy Florence has with I think it's the CEO of Zillow.
我们必须承认，质量复利兄弟最近一年半表现不佳，我们可以继续沿着这个方向，谈论我们投资组合中另一家目前下跌约25%的公司，那就是Co-Star Group。我应该说，对于这家公司，今天主要不是要找出任何模式，因为它在我们的投资组合中时间不长。
所以我相信价格下跌主要是波动和动量。整个一年都在下跌。它继续下跌，但也许有些事情已经改变，我们应该讨论一下。
We got to admit quality compounded bros did not have a good one and a half years recently and we could just you know keep going in that direction and talk about another business that is currently in our portfolio and is down about 25% and that's Co-Star Group and I should say that for this company it's not so much about figuring out any patterns today because it hasn't spent that much time on our portfolio. So you know I believe the price decline is mostly just volatility and momentum. was going down the entire year. It continues to go down and yet maybe there are some things that have changed and that we should cover.
所以，是的，我想我们应该谈谈Coaster，你大约3个月前提出的。由于我们的观众可能对我们之前讨论的其他公司不太熟悉，你可能想简单介绍一下为什么Co-Star对你来说如此有趣。
So yeah, I figured we should just talk about Coaster, which you pitched about 3 months ago now. And since it might be a bit less known to our audience than some of the other companies we talked about previously, you might just want to give a quick pitch on why Co-Star seemed so interesting to you.
是的，Co-Star的投资论点还处于早期阶段。现在下结论还为时过早。但真正思考CoStar的方式是，它是商业房地产的彭博终端。所以，这是一个建立在40年研究和实地考察、编目物业基础上的数据业务帝国。
这让他们在经纪商、贷款机构和投资者都依赖的comparables和分析方面拥有垄断般的控制力。因此，这个核心数据特许经营权拥有约50%的利润率，整体业务拥有净现金资产负债表，并且连续约60个季度实现两位数营收增长。所以这确实是一家令人印象深刻的公司。
Yeah, it's still really early in the Co-Star thesis. it' be way too soon to write it off in one direction or the other. But really, the way to think about CoStar is that it's the Bloomberg terminal of commercial real estate. So, it's this data business empire built over 40 years of research and physically visiting and cataloging properties. And that gives them a monopoly like grip on the comps and analytics that brokers and lenders and investors all depend on in this industry. And so that core data franchise carries about 50% margins and the business overall has a net cash balance sheet and then has strung together something like 60 quarters of double-digit revenue growth. So it really is an impressive business.
争议和股价下跌如此之多的原因归结于管理层将数十亿美元投入Homes.com，这是一个旨在挑战Zillow的住宅门户网站。大多数人可能熟悉Zillow，即使他们不知道Homes.com是什么。
但这项投资拖累了整个公司的营业利润为负。然后它吸引了一位激进投资者，他建议进行变革，Dan Loe是一位相当著名的投资者。
And so the controversy and the reason the stock is down so much boils down to management having plowed billions of dollars into homes. com which is this residential portal meant to challenge Zillow. And most people are probably familiar with Zillow if they don't know what Homes.com is. But that investment has dragged the entire company's operating profits negative. And then actually it drew in an activist investor who was advising for change in Dan Loe who's a pretty famous investor.
所以这个论点基本上是，市场如此专注于与Homes.com相关的现金消耗，以至于它把这个皇冠上的明珠——商业垄断数据业务——以折扣价交给你。用一句俗话来说，就是“倒洗澡水把孩子也倒掉了”，这似乎就是Co-Star发生的情况。
So the thesis is basically that the market is so fixated on the cash burn tied to homes.com that it's handing you this crown jewel commercial monopoly data business at a discount. And you know for lack of a better words the expression is throwing the baby out with the bathwater is really what it seems like has happened here with co-star.
对发生事情的最简要解释是，这是一家SaaS公司，这可能解释了为什么它现在就是不受待见。但我认为，当你提出这个建议时，对Homes.com的投资已经放缓了。所以他们仍然在那里烧钱，但速度比以前慢得多。
The briefest explanation of what happened is it's a SAS company and that might explain why it just can't catch a break right now. But I think the investments into into Homes.com had already slowed down when you made the pitch. So they are still burning money there, but at a much slower pace than they used to.
我必须承认，当你第一次向我推荐Costa时，我被其众多的业务部门以及其他一些警示信号搞得有些不知所措，这些信号主要涉及市场份额数据，在我看来这些数据有些奇怪，它们相当低，尽管从技术上讲它是垄断的。
而且CEO的持股比例也相当低，再加上CEO似乎有通过大规模支出来赢得市场份额的历史。所有这些都无济于事。尽管公平地说，这在之前的努力中奏效了。但这可能也是为什么他今天过于固执，看不到这场战斗已经失败（如果确实失败的话）的原因。
And I got to admit that when you first pitched Costa to me, I was a bit overwhelmed by all the different business units and some other yellow flags which were mainly about market share numbers that sort of seemed a bit weird to me. They were quite low. although it is technically a monopoly. And then the CEO also has a pretty low ownership stake and also the fact that the CEO seems to have a history of massive spending in order to win market share. All of that didn't help. Although to his credit, it worked out in previous endeavors. But that could also be why he is just too stubborn today to see that this fight is lost if it is.
我的意思是，即使是进来的激进投资者Dan Lope也已经离开了公司。虽然公开声明相当简短，但我认为很明显，他只是不相信自己能够对CEO Andy Florence或公司方向产生任何影响。
I mean, even Dan Lope, the activist investor who came in, has already left the company. And while the public statement was quite brief, I think it became clear that he just didn't believe he could have any impact on the CEO Andy Florence and or the direction of the company.
>> 如果我站在Co-Star CEO的角度，我认为让放弃这个赌注变得如此困难的部分原因是Zillow是一家如此令人讨厌的公司。[笑声] 他们确实有一些不令人鼓舞的商业行为，并且因为经营公司的方式而招致了许多诉讼，以及大量关于从Co-Star本身窃取和偷窃的指控。
因此，两家企业之间存在相当激烈的竞争，而且实际上Zillow作为一家公司表现并不好。
>> If I were to sort of assume the perspective of co-stars CEO, I think part of what makes giving up on this bet so hard is that Zillow is such a dislikable company. [laughter] They really have some uninspiring business practices and have incurred lots of lawsuits for how they've run the company and lots of allegations of theft and stealing from Co-Star itself. So there is a pretty bitter rivalry between the businesses and actually Zillow has not performed well as a company anyways.
所以，感觉事情确实到了可以被颠覆的时机，Co-Star应该能够介入并直接接管那项业务。但是，当然，Zillow拥有大量的品牌认知度，这使其说起来容易做起来难。
So, it feels like things are really ripe for disruption where Co-Star should be able to come in and just take over that business. But, of course, there's a massive amount of brand recognition working in Zillow's favor that makes it easier said than done.
所以，看到像Dan Loe这样的人对Co-Star的论点失去信心，确实让我有些犹豫，他主要主张削减在Homes.com上的支出，而且确实有人认为这可能是一个自尊心的问题，就像我说的，Andy Florence和Zillow之间存在相当激烈的竞争，这可能不仅仅是基于什么是最佳经济决策，而是一种小气和想要打倒某种敌人的感觉。
And so I mean it does give me some pause to see somebody like Dan Loe lose faith in the co-star thesis where he was primarily arguing to cut spending on homes. com and there definitely is some thought of this maybe being an ego thing where like I said there is a pretty bitter rivalry between Andy Florence and Zillow and it may simply boil down to not as what is the best econ economic decision, but a sense of pettiness and wanting to take down sort of an enemy.
所以，尽管如此，CoStar决定将其对Homes.com的净投资从去年的8.5亿美元削减到今年的大约3亿美元。然后到2030年，它应该再下降2亿美元。所以即使削减支出不符合Dan Loe的喜好，削减正在发生，这让我有信心不会无限期地完全放弃整个业务，尤其是当剔除Homes.com支出后的估值对于像CoStar这样拥有数据护城河的企业来说如此合理，这些数据是通过几十年来拍摄北美数千座商业房地产建筑而建立的。
And so, all that said, CoStar has decided to drop its net investment into Homes.com from $850 million last year to what will be about $300 million this year. And then in 2030, it's supposed to come down another $und00 million. So even if the cut back in spending was not to Dan Loe's liking, there is a cut back occurring, which gives me confidence in not just writing off the entire business indefinitely going forward, especially when the valuation stripping out spending on homes. com is so reasonable for a business with the data modes that CoStar has that are built literally by photographing thousands of commercial real estate buildings across North America over several decades.
所以，我们确实知道他们把所有东西都砸在Homes.com上的最坏情况不太可能成为现实，因为他们已经削减了支出。就像我说的，有了这个他们一栋楼一栋楼真正建立起来的数据护城河，AI显然无法取代它。
So, we do know that the worst case scenario of them just blowing everything on homes.com is very unlikely to come to fruition as they already cut back spending. And like I said, with this data mode that they've really built one building at a time, AI can obviously not replace that.
还有，Dan Loe批评的另一件事可能值得我们关注，那就是Andy Florence每年4000万美元的薪酬方案。我认为他在这方面说得很有道理。不过，他暗示Andy赚得太多，这可能对他们的关系没有帮助。
And still, the other thing that Dan Loe has criticized that maybe deserves some attention from us is Andy Florence's pay package of $40 million a year. And I think he does have a good point there. It probably didn't help their relationship though that he was suggesting that Andy makes too much money.
所以最终，对我来说，这归结为一个关于估值的故事。市场对Homes.com赋予的负面价值已经变得相当荒谬。整个投资周期花费了大约30亿到50亿美元，具体取决于你认为什么仅仅是Homes.com的投资。
然而，市值却从400亿美元下降到110亿美元。所以它造成了很大的损害。这是一个非常粗略的计算，因为你还必须考虑到CoStar的交易价格有溢价倍数，而市场现在根本不给SaaS公司这样的倍数。
但同样，关键是Homes.com的投资对业务未来的实际财务状况和前景的影响，远没有股市可能让它看起来的那么大，或者至少这是我的看法。
So in the end, it to me comes down to this being a story about valuation. And it has become pretty absurd how much negative value the market is ascribing to homes.com. The entire investment cycle cost about3 to5 billion depending on what you consider as solely being an investment in homes.com. And yet the market cap, however, has gone down from $40 billion to 11 billion. So it's done a lot of damage. And this is a very rough calculation since you also have to account for the fact that CoStar traded at a premium multiple that the market is just simply not giving to SAS companies these days. But again, the point is that Homes. com investment is not even remotely as impactful on the actual financials and prospects of the business going forward as the stock market is probably making it seem or at least that would be my opinion.
你之前提到了我们在蒙大拿州TIP峰会上做的演示，其中一部分也是理解市场对股票或公司的叙事的重要性。只有当我感觉自己理解了市场不喜欢公司的什么，当我看到它时，然后当我有不同的意见并且有充分的理由相信我是对的时，我才能对自己的股票决策感到自信。
只有这样，我才能个人判断投资这只股票对我来说是否有意义。我必须说，在这种情况下，市场明显关注的是Homes.com。然而，我认为市场也在超越这一点，它只是在普遍质疑他们是否会看到CoStar产生的任何现金流。
而且我越是研究它，就越觉得这是一个被严重错误定价的机会。所以实际上，我离开研究时比几周和几个月前更加自信。
You mentioned earlier the presentation that we gave in Montana for our TIP summit and part of that was also understanding the importance of the market's narrative about a stock or company. And I can only feel confident in my decision about a stock when I do feel like I understand what the market dislikes about the company when I look at it and then when I have a different opinion and have good reasons to believe that I'm right. And only then can I figure out personally whether that makes sense to me to invest into this stock. I got to say in this case it's clearly homes.com what the market has bogged about. However, I think the market is also looking beyond that and it's just generally questioning whether they will ever see any of the cash flows that Costa produces. And still the more I looked at it, the more I felt like this is a massively mispriced opportunity. So I actually got away from my research here feeling way more confident in it than I was just a couple of weeks and months ago.
我做了一些计算，你刚刚指出了一些要点。CoStar仅仅因为这个Homes.com的赌注和支出而损失的价值并不大，这是荒谬的。我认为如果你必须给Homes.com一个负值才能让市值下跌那么多，那几乎会是数百亿。所以我确实相信它比我最初想的更加错误定价。
I've did some math and you just pointed out some of the points. The value that you know Costa lost just because of this homes.com bet and the spend is not that massive is ridiculous. I think if you would have to give homes. com a negative value just to make sense for the market cap to drop that much, it would be in the tens of billions almost. So I do believe it's way more mispriced than I first thought.
>> 如果我要建议在当前价格下增加我们Adobe或Co-Star的头寸，两者都有吸引力，但我可能更倾向于Co-Star。
>> If I were going to recommend adding more to either our Adobe or Co-star positions at current prices, both are attractive, but I would probably prefer Co-Star.
哦，哇。那么，实际上我们应该增加它吗？我的意思是，如果你比Adobe更喜欢它，它可能至少应该是一个大于1.5%的头寸。再说一次，它之所以这么小，部分原因是我想要更熟悉它。我觉得我已经做到了。
尤其是现在它更低了。我的意思是，我们离入场价已经损失了25%。我必须说，我对这里的机会感觉好多了。那么，你觉得把它从投资组合的1.5%提高到3%怎么样？我们有现金来做这件事。所以，我看不出有什么理由不这样做。是的，我当然很乐意增加它在投资组合中的权重。
Oh wow. Well, actually then should we add to it? I mean, if you like it more than Adobe, it should probably be at least a bigger position than 1.5%. And again, like part of why it's so small is that I wanted to get more comfortable with it. And I feel like I've done that. And especially now that it's lower. I mean, again, we've lost 25% from our entry price. I got to say, I feel a lot better about the opportunity here. So, what do you think about maybe pushing it up from 1.5% of the portfolio to maybe 3%. We've got the cash to do it. So, I don't see a reason not to. Yeah, I definitely would be happy to increase its weight in the portfolio.