Yet Another Value Podcast 对 $ELAL 的判断变化
我们说的是LL航空公司。我希望我没说错。它基本上是以色列的国家航空公司。他有一个论点，你知道，下行保护，大量资产，有趣的定价结构，有趣的竞争动态，所有这些。
We're talking about LL Airlines. I hope I said that right. It's the Israeli national airlines is basically what it is. And he's got a thesis, you know, downside protection, lots of assets, the interesting pricing structure, interesting competitive dynamics, all that type of stuff.
但在那之前，我们今天想讨论的公司是El Al。在我心里，我认为它是以色列航空公司，但我不再啰嗦了。我把它交给你，我会说，'El Al是什么，为什么它们这么有趣？'你也可以告诉我我是否说错了。
But, before we get to that, the company we want to talk about today is El Al. This is Israeli Airlines is what I think of them in my head, but I'll stop rambling. I'll turn it over to you and I'll say, "What is El Al and why are they so interesting?" And you can tell me if I'm saying it wrong as well.
所以，是的，El Al是以色列的载旗航空公司。它成立于1948年，当时国家成立，然后在过去20年里私有化了。而且，长话短说，自2023年10月7日以来，他们的市场一直处于几乎持续的中断状态。
So, yeah, El Al is the Israeli flag carrier. It was started 1948 when they founded the country, and then it was privatized um in the last 20 years. And you know, the story to cut to the chase is since October 7th of 2023, there's been this um almost continuous disruption in their market.
欧洲的航空公司一直在断断续续地飞行，但基本上情况是，它们能够占据领先的市场份额。而且它们已经去杠杆化了资产负债表。我们仍处于战争之中，而它的交易价格在绝对和相对基础上都非常便宜。
There's been flight There's been carriers from Europe that have been flying on and off, but you basically have the situation where they've um been able to you know, command this like leading market share. And they've delevered the balance sheet. And we're still in the midst of a war and it trades like really cheaply on an absolute relative basis.
我认为这是一个非常高质量的资产，是那种30年后仍然存在的类型。市场非常恐慌，但我觉得这是一个非常不对称的布局，因为资产负债表的质量和我们所处的当前环境，我很乐意带你了解这个故事。
And you know, I think it's a very high quality asset. Type of thing that's going to be around 30 years from now. And the market is, you know, scared out of its mind, but I feel like it's a very asymmetric setup because of the quality of the balance sheet and the you know, the current setup that we find ourselves in and love to like walk you through the story.
是的，有几件事。首先，从显而易见的开始，这只股票相当不受关注。碰巧只有一半是公开交易的。在COVID期间，基本上进行了一次股权重组。以色列政府并没有救助这家航空公司。他们提供了一些贷款，但一个投资者进来了，一个美国投资者，基本上买了一半，在认股权证之间。
虽然认股权证现在已完全转换，所以我们看到的是完全稀释后的市值。所有流通股，有5.92亿股。
Yeah, so a few things. Number one, I think just to start with the obvious, it's kind of this this stock is pretty underfollowed. It happens to be that only half of it is publicly traded. During the middle of COVID, there was an equity essentially an equity recap. The Israeli government really did not bail the airline out. They provided some loans, but an investor came in a US investor and essentially like bought, you know, half the you know, between warrants and warrants. Although warrants are now fully converted, so the the we're looking at a fully diluted market cap right now. All the shares outstanding, there's 592 million shares.
但它确实不受关注且未被充分重视。如果你看首页，基本上没有美国对冲基金。前几大持有者都是以色列保险公司。你们继续说，资产负债表上的去杠杆化，我们说这没有被充分认识到，但我真的认为在这种情况下，去杠杆化是前所未有的，而且非常重要，因为他们能够连续三年获得暴利，完全去杠杆化了资产负债表，现在他们资本过剩。他们正在向股东返还资本。这是一个独特的布局。
But it truly is underfollowed and underappreciated. If you look at the front page, there are basically no US hedge funds. The top holders are all Israeli insurance companies. And so you guys kept going and say like, you know, there are deleveraging something that's on the balance sheet like we say that it's not been appreciated, but like I really think in this situation the deleveraging is so unprecedented and it's so significant because they've been able to just have three years of windfall profits that they've totally delevered the balance sheet and now they're like, well, you know, very overcapitalized. They're returning capital to shareholders. And that's, you know, that's a unique setup.
这非常困难，我们谈论的是一家处于战争中的航空公司，喷气燃料价格飙升，上个季度上涨了86%。以色列航空仍然设法产生了大量自由现金流。所以这是故事的一部分，他们已经证明了即使在大宗商品不利的情况下，他们也能盈利。
Like it's very hard and, you know, we're we're we're talking about an airline in the middle of a war with, you know, jet fuel like it was spiking, you know, like it was up 86% last quarter. El Al still managed to like generate a lot of free cash flow. So that's part of the story here is that they've already proven that they're even profitable with the commodity going against them.
这是第一点。关于去杠杆化，这说明了估值。交易价格约为EV/EBITDA的2.3倍，产生了大量自由现金流。所以绝对便宜，而且资产负债表已去杠杆化。所以你不用担心任何资产负债表问题。
So, that's number one. Like in terms of the deleveraging and that speaks to the valuation. Trades at like 2.3 times EV to EBITDA, you know, generated a lot of free cash flow. So, like there's just like an absolute cheapness and a in a deleveraged balance sheet. So, you're not to worry about any balance sheet issues.
第二点是，我认为市场没有意识到，经过三年的战争，本古里安机场的入境航班正在彻底改变，而我们仍处于与伊朗的冲突之中。最重要的变化是永久性的。我不是说它不会改变。会有其他航空公司进来，但土耳其航空和飞马航空，它们曾是前五大航空公司，完全离开了市场。它们不会回来了。
Number two is I think the market doesn't appreciate that there that you know, the inbound Ben Gurion is like being completely transformed after 3 years of war and we're still in the midst of the conflict with Iran. The most important change which has been permanent. I'm not saying it won't change. There will be there won't be other carriers that will come in, but Turkish Airlines and Pegasus which were top five carriers, they totally left the market. They're not coming back.
在需求方面，以色列航空赢得了信任。它们是唯一能够持续飞行的航空公司。这种情况断断续续地持续了三年。我不想用“飞轮”这个词。我不想为一家航空公司夸大它，因为它是大宗商品。它们都飞同样的飞机。
但最终，忠诚度计划和那些只想要确定不会取消机票的人存在一定的锁定效应，这种情况已经发生过。我的意思是，它发生在朋友身上，几乎发生在我身上。我五月在那里。人们会想乘坐以色列航空，这说明了它们的定价能力和它们在其独特利基市场中所享有的无弹性需求。
And then on demand side, you know, like El Al has won the trust. They're the only ones that have been able to consistently fly. There's been this on again, off again literally for 3 years. Kind of get I don't want to use the word flywheel. I don't overstate it for an airline cuz it's commodity. They're all flying the same planes. But at the end of the day, there is some lock-in with like the loyalty program and like people that just want surety that they're not going to have their tickets canceled which has happened. I mean, it's happened to friends, you know, almost happened to me. I was there in May. People are going to want to fly El Al and so that speaks to the pricing power and the in you know, the inelastic demand that they that they enjoy in in their unique, you know, in their niche.
你提到在过去几年里，公司利用战时利润真正去杠杆化了资产负债表。它们从净债务状况转变为巨额净现金状况。
You know, you mentioned over the past few years that the company has rode kind of wartime profits to uh really deleverage the balance sheet. They've gone from a net debt position to a huge net cash position.
所以，我的第一个想法是，“嘿，它们通过超常利润去杠杆化了，我们可以稍后再谈利润，但这真的有效吗？”这会引到我要说的第二点，它们有大量净现金头寸，但其中很多来自客户浮存金，对吧？
客户预付款。是的，它们没有取消航班，但你提到了。以色列政府在COVID期间没有救助它们。去问问所有航空公司，当客户可能取消时，依赖由客户浮存金构成的资产负债表是什么感觉。在这里，客户可能因为COVID而取消，或者因为战争进一步爆发而取消，没有人想旅行，或者他们不能安全旅行，不能安全起飞。
所以，我看这张资产负债表，我说，“嘿，我看到了两个错误，公司过去犯过的错误，这张资产负债表依赖于它们。这不是说它会破产，但如果我们依赖它进行估值，那会不会成为问题？”
So, I guess my first thought would be, "Hey, they kind of delevered through a supernormal profits, and we can get to profits later, but does that really work?" And that would kind of go to the second thing I'd say where they've got this big net cash position, but a lot of it is from customer float, right? Customer prepaid. And yes, they're not canceling flights, but you you mentioned it. The Israeli government didn't bail them out during COVID. And go ask all the airlines how they feel about relying on like a balance sheet made up of customer float when the customers might cancel. And here they might cancel because of a COVID, or they might cancel cuz the war goes breaks out even further, and nobody wants to travel, or they can't travel safely, they can't launch flights safely. So, I guess I look at this balance sheet and I say, "Hey, I I I see two errors that like companies or that I've looked at or companies have made in the past that this balance sheet kind of rests on. That's not say it's going to go bankrupt, but if we're relying on that for the valuation, could that prove a problem?"
是的，让我们谈谈资产负债表。他们谈论的方式是，他们有超过20亿美元的可用流动性资金。其中约13亿被称为航空交通负债，这基本上是无息贷款，因为人们提前购买机票。所以，即使排除这一点，并假设它正常化，它总有一天会正常化，但你知道，他们在过去三年里一直享受这种浮存金，他们仍然有显著的净现金头寸。
Yeah, so let's talk about the balance sheet. And so, like the way they talk about it, they, you know, they have there's over $2 billion in available funds for liquidity. About 1.3 billion of that is called air traffic liability, which is basically an interest-free loan from their customers cuz people buy the tickets in advance. So, even excluding that and assuming that it normalizes, and it will someday, but you know, they've been enjoying this float for the last 3 years, they still have a significant net They still have a you know, significant net cash um position on their balance sheet.
这是第一点。第二点是，这是一个真正的资产。它非常非凡。我在看，他们刚刚发布了第二季度。我认为在损益表中，他们有3100万美元的净财务收入，而去年第二季度是负400万。仅在融资线上就变动了3500万美元。
So, that's number one. Number two is it's a real asset. It's just like it's pretty extraordinary. I was looking, you know, they just printed their second quarter. Like they had I think it was like here in the income statement, there was like they had $31 million in like in like net finance It was like positive where the last you know, Q2 last year was like negative four That's a $35 million shift just in the financing line.
部分原因是他们自2025年以来能够买断九架飞机。他们基本上从租赁中买断了它们，从长远来看这更好。所以，我只想指出那些永久性的东西。假设ATL正常化，他们仍然会有现金余额。他们仍然会拥有80%的机队。两年前，机队只有50%。
And part of that is they've been able to buy out um nine aircrafts over the last since 2025. They basically bought them out of off of lease, and that's much better longer term. So, like you know, I I would just point to the things that are permanent. Like so, like you know, assuming the ATL normalizes fine, they're still going to have a cash balance. They're still going to have They're still going to own 80% of their fleet. Like 2 years ago it was like it was only 50% of the fleet.
我觉得，最重要的是，我一直在想这个。你说得对。这看起来像是过度盈利，对吧？你怎么能不担心它会均值回归，股票不会上涨，因为那将非常困难。
And I feel like that you know, you know, those those two And the most important thing though is I think about this all the time. You're right. Like this screams This thing is over-earning, right? Like how could you not be concerned that there's going to it's going to mean revert, and the stock's not going to work because it's just going to be very difficult.
我认为我会指出他们最后一个干净的年份，那是在COVID和10月7日战争之间，即2023年。在2023年，他们在资本支出、租赁、贷款摊销之后是盈利的。他们产生了大约1亿到2亿美元的自由现金流。
所以，我这样看。最坏的情况，假设他们回到那个水平。你看到的是20亿美元的EV，正常化后至少有1.5亿到2亿美元的自由现金流，我觉得我愿意打这个赌。
And I I think that I would I would point back to like their last clean year, which was really sandwiched between COVID and the and the war on October 7th was 2023. And in 2023, like they were profitable, you know, after CapEx, after leases, after, you know, amortization of loans. So, and they to the tune of like 100 to 200 million dollars in free cash flow. So, I kind of look at it like that. Like, worst-case scenario, I you know, that let's say they go back to that. Like, you're looking at a $2 billion EV and normalize, you know, at least 150 to 200 million in free cash flow, I feel like I'm willing to take that bet.
但我不认为那会很低，因为他们已经增加了大量运力。目前尚不清楚他们增加了多少运力，因为其中一些是湿租。这些湿租是他们拥有的临时租赁，但那只是少数。多数情况是他们增加了机队。
Um but like, I don't think I think that's going to be low because they permanent they they've added a lot of capacity. Um it's not clear how much capacity they've added because some of it is uh wet leases. So, those wet leases are, you know, they're temporary leases that they have, but that's the minority of it. That's the minority of it. The majority of it is just, you know, they've added to their fleet.
让我们再谈谈估值。你的报告里，那句关键的话，人们应该去读一读。在结尾处，但你的关键句是：“嘿，我们的下行风险受到支撑，因为他们有我们谈到的13亿美元净现金。他们拥有很多飞机，去看看飞机价格。”
比如，拥有飞机，所有这些飞机都在赚钱。你说：“嘿，他们拥有超过10亿美元的飞机，而且他们的品牌信用卡计划和忠诚度计划的外部估值约为7亿美元。”所以，那是35亿美元的硬资产价值，而企业价值，取决于你如何处理现金，大约是20亿美元。所以，你是在以大幅折价买入。
Let's turn to valuation a little bit more, right? So, your write-up again the the killer line and people should go read the write-up. It's at the end, but the killer line you have is, "Hey, our the downside here is supported by they've got the 1.3 billion of net cash that we talked about. They own a lot of their planes and go look at plane prices." Like, owning planes the all these planes are in the money. You say, "Hey, they own a billion plus of planes and they've got an external valuation on their branded credit card program that's and loyalty program that's worth 700 millionish." So, that's 3.5 billion in kind of hard asset value versus an EV of you depending on how you keep treat the cash, 2 billionish, right? So, you're buying it at a substantial discount.
而且因为多条战线上的多场战争，实际上去年有一枚导弹击中了本古里安机场。El Al发现自己基本上处于跨大西洋航班的垄断地位。
And because of like multiple multiple wars on multiple fronts, actual there's an actual missile that hit Ben Gurion last year. It was like and El Al has found itself in this basically monopoly position on the transatlantic flight.