Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $FDX 的判断变化
联邦快递在最近一个完成的季度报告了13%的收入增长，并且公司正在成功减少其运营能力。自2022年以来，其机队规模已减少8%，管理层预计运输单位数量将面临逆风。
FedEx reported 13% revenue growth in its most recently completed quarter, and the company successfully is reducing its operational capacity. Since 2022, there's been an 8% reduction in its fleet size, the management team anticipating headwinds to the number of units being transported.
但这一切是否使联邦快递的股票成为买入机会？当然，我已经将联邦快递的股票评为买入超过一年，而在此期间股价表现优异。
But does all of this make FedEx stock a buying opportunity? Of course, I've had FedEx stock ranked as a buy for over a year now, and the stock price has performed excellently in that time.
但我是否仍然认为这是一个买入机会？这就是我在这段视频中想要回答的问题，所以让我们一起看看这些数据。所以，在经历了一些销售数据的波动之后，联邦快递正在恢复增长，正如我之前提到的。
最近一个完成的季度收入增长13%，全年增长8%。
But do I still think it's a buying opportunity? That's the question I want to answer in this video, so let's look at the figures together. So, after experiencing some volatility in its sales figures, FedEx is returning to growth, as I mentioned earlier. 13% top-line growth in the most recently completed quarter, and 8% for the full year.
公司于6月成功剥离了其联邦快递货运业务，这使得两个实体能够独立运营。
The company successfully divested away from its FedEx Freight business in June, so that allowed the two entities to operate independently.
在我看来，联邦快递和UPS的管理团队在调整业务规模以适应运输量减少、由于贸易壁垒增加导致的单位货运量减少方面做得非常出色。
FedEx, like UPS, in my opinion, the management teams of these companies have done an excellent job right-sizing the business to account for the reduction in trans- transportation, the reduction in shipments in unit volume due to the increase in trade barriers.
机队规模的减少以及与飞行员的新合同应能使联邦快递的运营盈利能力稳步回升至10%左右。在最近12个月的滚动数据中，这一数字为7%。这不是一个非常盈利的业务，也不是一个非常盈利的行业。
The reduction in fleet size and a new contract with its pilots should allow FedEx's operating profitability to steadily approach 10% again. In the most recent trailing 12-month figure, this figure sat at 7%. It's not a very profitable business, nor is this a very profitable industry.
联邦快递还指出，管理层正专注于降低业务的资本密集度。他们向投资者承诺，未来资本密集度将平均约为收入的4%。对于一个销售额接近一千亿美元的业务，这意味着每年的资本支出大约为四十亿美元。
FedEx also noted that the capital intensity of the business, the management team is focused on reducing that. They made a commitment to investors for the capital intensity to average around 4% of revenue going forward. With a business that's generating nearly a hundred billion dollars in sales, that would mean roughly four billion dollars in annual capital expenditures.
相对于公司历史平均水平，这是一个缩减后的运营机队规模和运营规模。这就是投资者对联邦快递更加兴奋的部分原因。公司现在的规模更小，你不能称其为轻资产商业模式。实际上恰恰相反，但它正朝着比之前更轻资产的方向发展。
所以，在业务运营的资本使用强度谱系上，联邦快递正朝着更轻资产的方向发展，这是一个巨大的改进，因为它一开始就是如此重资产。这些削减对公司的业绩产生了有意义的改善。
That's a shrunk down size of an operational fleet and operation size given the company's historic averages. That's partly the reason why investors have gotten more excited about FedEx. The company is now a smaller size, a more You can't call this an asset-light business model. It's actually the opposite, but it's moving more towards an asset-lighter business compared to where it was before. So, on the spectrum of how heavy capital usage a business operates under, FedEx is moving towards more asset-light operations, and that's a big improvement because it's so asset-heavy to begin with. Those reductions make a meaningful improvement in the company's performance.
另一个原因是投入资本回报率并不理想。我这里有一张公司过去十年投入资本回报率的图表，在过去十年中，只有大约三年超过了两位数。而且即使超过，也没有高出多少，峰值仅为14%。
And another reason why that's the case is because the returns on invested capital have not been great. I have here a 10-year chart of the company's return on invested capital, and it only exceeded double digits in about three years out of the previous decade. And when it did, it didn't reach all that much above double digits, 14% at its peak.
所以，这勉强高于公司的加权平均资本成本。当你将资本投入到一个投入资本回报率如此之低的业务中时，它并没有给投资者带来多少回报。你承担了风险，错过了资本的机会成本，却没有得到多少回报。
So, this is barely above the company's weighted average cost of capital. And when you're plowing capital into a business with such low returns on invested capital, it's not giving investors very much return on that investment. You're taking risk, you're missing out on the opportunity cost of that capital, and you're not getting very much in return.
我提到联邦快递的股票表现优异。2026年至今上涨超过42%，加上股息。我提到过这只股票被评为买入机会，我上次更新这一评级是在2025年9月22日。这不是我经常关注的公司。
I mentioned FedEx stock is performing excellently. It's up over 42% year-to-date in 2026 plus dividends. I mentioned they've had this stock ranked as a buying opportunity and I last updated this ranking on September 2nd September 22nd, 2025. This isn't the company that I follow all that frequently.
鉴于自上次更新以来的股价上涨，联邦快递目前的远期市盈率为15.9。根据这一估值指标，这接近该股票自2023年底以来的最高交易区间。但现在的业务与近年来相比已经大不相同。
And so given the share price increase since my last update, FedEx is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 15.9. That's near the highest end of where this stock has traded for according to this valuation metric going back to late 2023. But the business is a lot different now than it was in recent years.
他们已经优化了运营，缩减了车队规模。他们降低了资本密集度，将其控制在营收的约4%。他们还剥离了FedEx Freight，并将业务独立拆分。
They've right-sized operations, shrinking the fleet size. They've reduced the capital intensity, keeping it capped at around 4% of revenue. They've also divested their FedEx Freight and split the operations independently.
今天我还更新了对FedEx的现金流折现估值计算，我的公允价值估计上调至每股313美元。鉴于当前市场价格高于每股331美元，从估值综合来看，该股看起来估值合理或略微高估。
Today I also updated my discounted cash flow valuation calculation for FedEx and my fair value estimate increased to $313 per share. Given the current market price is above $331 per share, the stock looks fairly valued to slightly overvalued when measuring comprehensively looking at valuation.
所以，回答我在视频开头和标题中提出的问题，我认为这是买入机会吗？我会说不。事实上，我将FedEx股票评级下调至持有，并于2026年8月27日更新了我的排名。
So to answer the question I posed early in the video and in the headline, do I think this is a buying opportunity? I would say no. In fact, I'm downgrading FedEx stock to a hold, updating my ranking on August 27th, 2026.
但我在这个排名上的信心水平相对较低，因为正如我之前提到的，这不是我经常关注的公司。而且由于我不经常关注它，我对公司的评估信心不如我原本可能有的那么高。
But I have a relatively low conviction level or relatively low confidence level on this ranking because as I mentioned earlier, this isn't the company I follow all that frequently. And since I don't follow it all that frequently, I don't have as much confidence in my evaluation of the company as I otherwise might have.