The Motley Fool 对 $FRM 的判断变化
是的，今天首先讨论的是外形尺寸。这是股票代码FRM。
Yeah, first on the table today is form factor. This is ticker symbol FRM.
好的。所以，如果你看到更高出货量的情况，但担心内存价格本身，那么我有一只股票可以让你从更高的出货量中获利，而不必担心商品化。这家公司，如前所述，就是FormFactor。
Okay. So, if you see a case for higher volume, but you're worried about the memory prices themselves, then I have a stock for you that can allow you to profit off the higher volume without worrying about the commoditization. That company here, as mentioned, is form factor.
现在，FormFactor做的是制造探针卡。基本上，在内存制造过程中，需要这些小的电气连接器接触，确保它们在出厂给客户之前正常工作。我们谈论的是非常非常小的东西，它正在测试。所以所有这些探针卡都必须定制。
所以FormFactor制造这些探针卡。它将在那一代内存中运营这些探针卡，但也与客户合作，因为它必须提前几代进入设计阶段，以确保当生产提升时，它已经有探针卡准备好了。
Now, what form factor does is it makes probe cards. probe cards. Basically, as the memory is getting made, they need to have these little electrical connectors touch down and make sure that they work before they go out of the factory to the customer. And what we're talking about really, really small things that it is testing. And so all of these probe cards have to be custommade. So what this does is form factor makes these probe cards. It is going to be the company running those probe cards throughout that generation of memory, but also works with its customers because it's having to work ahead several generations getting into the design phase to make sure that when production is ramped up, it already has the probe cards ready to go.
自2017年以来，总收入组成部分的增长率仅为6%。所以那不算太疯狂。但在过去六个月到一年里有一个不错的跳跃。那将表明你所说的。你有点超前了。在同一时期，利润率也有所上升。
Total revenue since 2017 component growth rate is only 6%. So that's not that crazy. Uh but there has been a nice jump over the past six months to a year. That would indicate exactly what you're talking about. You're kind of getting ahead of things. Profit margin has gone up a little bit over that same time as well.
估值有点高。企业价值与销售额之比接近8，远期市盈率为33。
Valuation is a little bit steep though. Uh enterprise value to sales is almost eight and the forward price earnings multiple is 33.
这里的想法是出货量将增加得足够多，因为记住，即使在最近的季度，美光也说我们没有改变出货量，所以我们谈论的内存产能增加要到2027年最早，2028年、2029年才会实现，那时你才会真正看到这个好处，他们现在正在做基础工作，未来的增长将是业务的驱动力。
is the idea here though that the volume is going to increase more than enough because remember even in the most I think the most recent quarter Micron said hey we didn't change our volume at all like so the the capacity additions that we're talking about bringing online in memory are not going to be hitting until 2027 at the earliest 2028 2029 that's when you would really see this benefit is they're kind of doing that groundwork right now and then the future growth is going to be the driver of the business.
所以，如果你有机会在未来几年内将利润翻倍、三倍、四倍，那么支付30倍市盈率可能不是什么大问题。市场正在展望未来的更高出货量，并将其计入价格。
So maybe paying 30 times earnings isn't that big a deal if you're have an opportunity to double, triple, quadruple profits over the next few years. The market is looking ahead to the higher volume down the line and pricing that in.
现在你知道，FormFactor的最大客户之一是SKH，SKH最近与英伟达合作。他们正在将东西整合到设计阶段。SKH海力士最近在美国进行了自己的IPO筹集资金。它需要增加产量，所以这确实预示着FormFactor的好日子。
Now you know one of the in fact not one of the the top customer for form factor is SKH and SKH recently partnering with Nvidia. They're integrating things into the design phase. SKH Highix recently having its own US IPO raising money. It needs to increase production and so that does point ahead to good times for form factor.
我要指出的另一件事是，不仅仅是内存。探针卡还有其他用途，一个有趣的选择领域是量子计算。CQITS也需要探针卡，FormFactor正在为量子计算公司进入许多测试设计。
Another thing I'll point out here is it's not just memory. There are other ways that probe cards are used and and one intriguing area of optionality is quantum computing. CQITS also need probe cards and form factor is getting into many test designs here for quantum computing companies.
现在，这是不确定因素。如果突然一家量子计算公司取得突破，我们需要开始快速扩展，不仅仅是测试，不仅仅是实验，现在我们实际上进入生产模式。FormFactor是已经为正在提升的东西设计探针卡的公司。
所以，它可能在任何人意识到发生了什么之前迅速变成顺风。
Now, here's the wild card here. If all of a sudden a quantum computer company has a breakthrough and we need to start scaling up rapidly going into more than just testing, more than just experimental, now we're actually into production mode. Formfactor is the one who already has the design of the probe cards for the thing that is ramping up. So, it could very quickly turn into a tailwind before anyone's realized what's happening.
最引起我注意、我需要更深入研究的是FormFactor。也许是因为测试设备容易理解，我知道那是那种被遗忘的业务。开发这些产品很难。它们确实是精密产品。我的意思是，我见过。我认识一个拥有弹簧测量公司的人，生意非常好，因为谁会来开发另一个弹簧测量设备呢。
它就是一个利基产品。所以你可以有一个非常好的业务，然后你实际上与客户一起成长，就像你所说的。所以随着内存市场的更多扩张，他们就会随之发展。对我来说这是一个很好的核心论点。量子计算中的选择性听起来非常引人注目。
the one that has my most attention that I got to dig into a little bit more is form factor. Maybe it's something about the ease of understanding that testing equipment, and I know that's one of those kind of forgotten businesses. It's it's difficult to develop these products. They're really precision products. I mean, I've seen this. I knew somebody who owned a spring measurement company and just did a phenomenal business because like who's going to come in and develop another spring measurement device. It's just it's it's a niche product. So you can have a really good business and then you actually grow up with your customers like you're saying. So as we have more expansion in the memory market, they're just going to ride right along with that. That's a great core thesis to me. The optionality in quantum computing that sounds really compelling to me.