Chip Stock Investor 对 $FSLY 的判断变化
Fastly 是我们将更仔细研究的一只股票，我将向您展示这最终将如何组合成投资组合中的一个小型股票篮子。我们非常简要地、高层面地看了一下 Fastly 的财务状况。收入已重新加速增长。
最近一个季度处于 25% 左右的中段范围，他们在自由现金流和营业利润率方面正在取得进展。
Fastly here is one that we'll take a bit closer look at, and I'll show you how this will ultimately work out into putting together a little mini basket of stocks in the portfolio. We looked at Fastly financials at a very, very brief high-level look here. The revenue has re-accelerated. It's mid-twenty percent range now in the most recent quarter, and they're making progress on free cash flow and operating margins.
他们在供应链层级中处于什么位置？他们是否对其软件的分销有一定控制权，以及服务的深度整合？我认为这可能相当值得怀疑。我甚至可能倾向于在这里打一个红叉。
Where are they in the hierarchy of the supply chain? Do they have some sort of control over their distribution of the software, really deep integration of services? I would say that's probably pretty questionable. I'd maybe even be tempted to put a red X here.
还有他们对技术开发供应链控制的深度。是的，他们似乎对此有相当好的控制。在我们的笔记中，我没有注意到他们过度依赖某人的技术。
Also the depth of their supply chain control over their development of their tech. Yeah, it seems like they have pretty good control over that. I didn't notice anything in our notes like they're overly dependent on someone, for their technology.
他们能在多大程度上复制 Cloudflare 在核心 CDN 服务中构建网络安全和开发者工具的做法？
To what extent can they kind of replicate what Cloudflare did with building out cybersecurity and developer tools as part of the core CDN service?
粘性如何？看起来并不粘。Shopify 曾经是主要客户，他们很容易就切换到了 Cloudflare。复杂性。我只会在这里插一面黄旗。也许偏向于打一个绿勾。这是硬件加软件，但他们依赖那些数据中心托管服务。
Is it sticky? It appears not. Shopify used to be a major customer, and they pretty easily just switched to Cloudflare. Complexity. I'm just gonna stick a yellow flag here. Maybe with a bias towards putting a green check here. It is hardware plus software, but they are reliant on those data center co-location services.
收入模式，订阅还是消费，或者是许可还是服务？这是许多不同事物的混合，因为它是一个平台，一个 CDN，网络安全，可观测性，一些 AI 产品。
Revenue model, subscription versus consumption, or is it license or service? It's a mix of a lot of different things because it's a platform, it's a CDN, it's cybersecurity, observability, some AI products.
总体而言，这反映在毛利率和基于 GAAP 的负营业利润率上，至少是这样。这有所改善，但仍然落后于 Cloudflare。费用控制，他们在这方面肯定取得了很大进展。
And that overall shows up in the gross profit margin and negative operating margin on a GAAP basis, at least. That has improved a bit, but it is still lagging behind Cloudflare. Expense control, they've definitely made a lot of progress on this.
股票薪酬占收入的比例仍然很高，接近 19%，但几年前是 34%，所以这里有一些改善。如果你考虑长期投资这样的东西，这确实值得很多警示。
Stock-based compensation to revenue, it's still high though at nearly 19%, but it was 34% a few years ago, so there is some improvement here. This really honestly just deserves a lot of flags if you're looking at investing in something like this for the long term.
关于资本化，这个特定的是增长由资金支持而没有大量稀释。过去一年稀释后加权平均股数超过 6%。我们设定的目标是不超过 2%，所以它不符合这个目标。
So this particular one on the capitalization is growth funded without heavy dilution. Diluted weighted average share count over the last one year over six percent. We had set a target of no more than two percent, so it doesn't meet that.
销售周期。我认为这进展得相当顺利。看起来他们至少保持并增长了一些客户关系。让我们慷慨一点，打个绿勾。还有营销效率。在这个特定软件公司的生命周期中，这将与资本化密切相关。
Sales cycle. This is going fairly well, I would say. It would seem that they're at least holding onto and growing some of their customer relationships. Let's be generous here and just put a green check mark. And then also marketing efficiency. This is going to be closely related with capitalization in the case of this, you know, the life cycle of this particular software company.
然后让我们对 Fastly 进行反向 DCF。他们没有产生 GAAP 每股收益。那是负的。所以我们需要使用每股自由现金流。在最近报告的 12 个月中为 33 美分，所以我将 100% 权重分配给自由现金流。
and let's get to a reverse DCF then on Fastly. They do not generate GAAP earnings per share. That's negative. So we need to use free cash flow per share. It was at thirty-three cents in the last reported 12 months, so I've weighted this 100% to free cash flow.
对于软件来说，销售周期相当长，即使是像这样的基础设施软件。所以我将其延长到 10 年，将终值增长率设为 5% 作为起点。
The sales cycle is fairly long for software, even for an infrastructure-based software play like this one. So I extended this out to 10 years, set the terminal rate at 5% for starters.
未来十年每股自由现金流需要多少平均年增长率，即 CAGR？是 22%。这就是证明当前股价大约 26 美元合理的原因。22%，也许 23% 的 CAGR。
What growth rate, average growth rate per year, which CAGR is needed for free cash flow per share over the next decade? It's at 22%. That's what justifies the current stock price of let's just say roughly $26. 22, maybe 23% CAGR.
我不会在这个特定目标上设置通知，但我们可以做的是，如果我们希望股价达到我们认为的良好安全边际时收到通知，让我们将这个增长率降低到 20% 以下。如果当前股价超过 26 美元，下跌 30% 至 19 美元以下，那可能会很有趣。
我将启用该通知。我将保存该情景，如果 Fastly 下跌，我会收到通知。
I'm not gonna hit notifications on this particular target, but what we could do is if we wanted to be notified if the stock price hit what we felt was a good margin of safety, let's lower this growth rate down to under 20%. If the stock price currently over 26 bucks per share were to drop 30% to under 19, that might be interesting. I'll enable notifications on that. I'll save that scenario, and I'll get notified if Fastly were to fall.
最后，只是将其加入观察列表。因为我们已经有了 Cloudflare，这对我们来说可能更像是放弃。但是，如果股价大幅下跌，我会将其列入观察。当然不是我们会考虑买入的东西。
Finally, it's just making this a watchlist. Because we already have Cloudflare, this is probably more like a pass for us overall. But, if the stock price did fall significantly, I'll put it on watch. Certainly not something we would consider a buy.
如果我们从零开始，想要一些CDN敞口，我们可以选择Cloudflare，可能在这个篮子中偏向于主要持有Cloudflare，然后可能少量持有Akamai和Fastly。
If we were starting from scratch and we wanted some CDN exposure, we could do Cloudflare, probably with a bias in this basket towards having mostly Cloudflare and then maybe smaller positions in Akamai and Fastly.
Akamai，如果它能够在财务上扭转局面，以及Fastly，如果它能够继续建立一些势头并投资于增强其平台能力。
Akamai, if it's able to turn itself around financially, and Fastly if it can continue to build some momentum and invest in increasing its platform's capabilities.
现在我们可以做的最后一件事是监控Fastly的进展，我将再次带你回到研究仪表板。回到公司分析，在Fastly下的个别公司分析，希望这能为你节省一步。这里有一个直接链接到投资者关系页面。
所以我会点击它，打开Fastly，这里你有公司的所有财务结果，你可以在这里监控进展，看看他们是否推出任何新产品，进行任何新收购，因为他们能够增加净现金余额。
Now one last thing we can do here to monitor for progress for Fastly, I'll take you back to the research dashboard one more time. Back under company analysis, individual company analysis under Fastly, hopefully this saves you a step here. There is a link directly to the investor relations page. So I'll click on that, open up Fastly, and here you have all the financial results for the company, and you can monitor for progress here, see if they're launching any new products, making any new acquisitions as they are able to increase their net cash balance.
我们也可以过滤新闻发布，并跟踪这些，看看他们是否有任何收购正在进行。敬请关注。
We can also filter news releases as well and keep track of that and see if they have any acquisitions that are being made. Stay tuned on that.
然后是来自 Fastly 的那个，看起来非常相似。
And then the one from Fastly, which looks pretty similar.
Fastly 也属于更偏向下一代 CDN 的服务。这里也有很多不同的产品：基础 CDN、网络安全，还有一些计算产品。他们开始涉足计算领域，允许客户直接在网络边缘执行一些计算，以及我们之前讨论过的可观测性。
Fastly, also kind of more of a next-gen CDN service. Also lots of various products in here: the basic CDN, cybersecurity, some compute products as well. They're getting a bit into compute, allowing customers to perform some compute directly at the network edge, and then observability, which we've talked about before.
所以我从 Cloudflare 开始，然后是 Akamai，再然后是 Fastly，它们都在这里。我们有一些各自的财务细分，这相当惊人。Cloudflare 现在的市值超过 1100 亿美元，而相比之下，历史更悠久、更成熟、而且坦率地说收入规模大得多的 Akamai 市值不到 180 亿美元，然后是市值不到 50 亿美元的小型新兴公司 Fastly。
So I started with Cloudflare, then Akamai, and then Fastly, and here they are. We've got some financial breakdowns of each, and this is pretty wild. Cloudflare now trading at over $110 billion market cap, compared to the far older, more mature, and frankly much larger by revenue company, Akamai, at just under $18 billion, and then the small upstart at under $5 billion, Fastly.
Fastly 最近重新加速增长，如果你是一位长期受苦的 Fastly 股东，这太棒了。增速重新回到 20% 以上。
Fastly has re-accelerated as of late, which is fantastic if you've been a long-suffering Fastly shareholder. Accelerated back over 20%.
而且你已经在过去十二个月的自由现金流利润率中看到了，为 14%，Akamai 为 22%，Fastly 略低于 7.5%，尽管随着它们再次获得一些动力，这也可能会有所改善。
And you can see it already in the free cash flow margin at 14% over the last twelve-month period, 22% for Akamai and Fastly at just shy of 7.5%, though that is also probably going to be improving here, as they pick up some steam again.
我们是否应该配置到 Fastly，它目前以相对折价交易？也许。Fastly 再次出现了一些相当健康的增长。也许这是一个值得加入小盘股、小注篮子中的标的。
Do we allocate to Fastly, which is trading at a relative discount? Maybe. Some pretty healthy growth happening at Fastly again. Maybe this is one worth adding to a small cap, small bets basket.