Meet Kevin 对 $GEV 的判断变化
我们将讨论像 GE Vernova 这样的公司的利润率相比之下如何。
We'll talk about where the margins are for company like GE Vernova in comparison.
请记住，这些涡轮发动机有很多部分。有热段，这是最慢且最昂贵的，包括压气机盘、机匣、燃料喷嘴、雾化器。我可能说错了那个词，但基本上就是那些将燃料喷入涡轮发动机实际燃烧部件的小型喷射器。
还有转子、发电机、热回收、冷却。有很多。GE Vernova 表示所有这些部件都是限制因素，不仅仅是叶片和导叶。所以，两者之间有一点冲突。
Uh keep in mind that there are a lot of sections when it comes to these turbine engines. You've got uh the hot section, which is the slowest and most expensive, and it includes things like the compressor discs, casings, uh the fuel nau nozzles, the you know, aerosolizers. I probably screwed up that word, but basically the little um in injectors that spray the fuel into the actual combustion component of a turbine engine. Uh you've got uh the rotors, the generators, heat recovery, cooling. There's a lot. GE Vernova says all of those components are a limiting factor, not just the blades and veins. So, there's a little bit of a clash between the two.
而 GE Vernova 在这条消息上下跌了约 2.4%。
Whereas, GE Vernova's down about 2.4% on this news.
再次，GE Vernova 不同意这一点。他们说所有东西都面临制造产能限制。所以，不仅仅是拥有这些部件，而是实际上能够将它们组装在一起，这是一个约束。
Again, GE Vernova disagrees with that. They say everything is facing a manufacturing uh capacity restraint. So, it's not just having those components, it's actually being able to assemble it all together, and that's a constraint.
现在，公平地说，确实存在真正的短缺，这就是像 GE Vernova 这样的公司拥有定价权的原因。因此，他们在电力板块的利润率（涡轮机所在的板块）在过去一年中上升了约 240 个基点，即 2.4 个百分点。
他们的电力板块表现非常好，他们没有说这是因为数据中心，但我们预计这是由于数据中心，因为他们说是来自重型燃气轮机。他们还提到海上风电收入部分有所下降，这可能是因为特朗普称它们为鲸鱼杀手。
这真的是另一个视频的话题。但无论如何，他们的毛利润总体上升了 27.8%，总收入上升了 22%，所以他们的毛利润增长更多。而且由于这些涡轮机对个别公司来说利润率更高，预计 GE Vernova 将能够提升其整体净利润率，这实际上可以帮助他们的估值。
Now, in fairness, there is a real shortage going on and and that's why there's pricing power to company like GE Vernova. So, their uh margins on the power segment, which is where the turbines sit at GE Vernova, uh are up about 240 basis points to 2.4 percentage points uh just over the last year. Their power segment is doing very well and they don't say it's because of data centers, but we expect it's due to data centers because they say from heavy-duty gas turbines. They also mention that there has been a decrease at the offshore wind revenue component, which is probably because Trump calls them whale killers. Topic for a different video, really. But anyway, their gross profit is up 27.8% overall and their total revenues are up 22%, so they're growing their gross profit more. And because these turbines are higher margin for the individual company, expectations are that GE Vernova is going to be able to boost their entire net margins, and that can actually help their valuation out.
例如，如果我跳到 Reinvest 股票标签，这是我们的终端标签，让我再次登录。我似乎总是在视频中间被登出。就像，“没关系。”[笑声] 但让我们转到 GE Vernova，这将是 GEV 标签，然后一旦我们进入这里，你可以看到几件事。
首先，我们有一个公允价值上行目标，大约 1,231 美元。这假设他们的利润率继续扩大。显然，如果这只是一个周期性业务，他们的利润率扩张是暂时的，或者更多竞争对手进入，那么那就是下行风险。
If I jump on over, for example, to the Reinvest stock tab, so this is sort of our terminal tab on uh let me get logged in again here. I always seem to get logged out right in the middle of a video. It's like, "It's okay." [laughter] Uh but um let's go over to the GE Vernova, which is going to be the GEV tab, and then once we're in over here, you can see a couple things. First, we've got a fair value upside target of around $1,231. This assumes that their margin continues to expand. Obviously, if this is just a cyclical business and their margin expansion is temporary or more competitors come in, then that's a downside.
记住，Elon 曾著名地称锂是限制因素，然后说，“嘿，他们也将进入 Raptor 设施的锂精炼。”然后他们确实这样做了，但随后锂价暴跌。所以，人们现在想知道，叶片和导叶几年后会不会变得非常便宜，对吧？所以，这是需要记住的事情。
Remember, Elon famously called lithium the limiting factor and then said, "Hey, they're going to get into the lithium refining as well at the Raptor facility." And then they did, but then lithium prices tanked. So, people are now wondering, are blades and veins going to get really cheap now in a few years, right? So, it's something to keep in mind.
但是，如果我们看这里的洞察，我们可以看到天然气产能加速从 GE Vernova 的 3 GW 增加到 5 GW，这是一个很大的增长。这增加了超过 50%。这对 GE Vernova 来说，产量增加了 67%，不仅对利润率有增益，而且对收入也有增益。
But, if we look at the insights over here, we can see the gas capacity ramp accelerating from 3 GW at GE Vernova to 5 GW, which, you know, that's that's a big increase. That's more than a 50% increase. That is a 67% increase in in output for these is is not only margin accretive, but revenue accretive to GE Vernova.
所以，很多人对此感到兴奋，他们看到了短期抛售。我没有持有这家公司的任何头寸，所以你知道，我不是在试图推销它。
So, a lot of people are excited about this and they see the the short-term sell-off. I don't have any exposure to to this company, so you know, it's not like I'm trying to shill it.
但是，人们非常兴奋这长期内可能对他们的利润率产生什么影响，加上他们所谓的集成解决方案和固态变压器。但是，无论如何，如果你然后跳到 GE Vernova 的现金流，他们的现金流实际上非常好。
他们的资产负债表不是很好，但如果你看他们的现金流，在 120 亿美元的自由现金流预测上，他们有大约 5% 的现金流收益率，自由现金流收益率。相当不错。不坏。
But, um people are very excited about what this could do for their margins over the long term, plus what they're calling integrated solutions and solid-state transformers. But, anyway, uh if you then jump on over to GE Vernova's uh cash flow, their cash flow is actually fantastic. Their balance sheet's not that great, but if you look at their cash flow on $12 billion of free cash flow forecast, they've got like a 5% cash flow yield, free cash flow yield. Pretty dang good. Not bad.