Joseph Carlson 对 $GOOGL 的判断变化
我们以前听过这个故事，但那是就在一周前，主角是谷歌。我将讨论为什么我支持谷歌的股权融资，而不支持 Meta 的股权融资。
We heard this story before, but it was with Google just a week ago. And I'll be going over why I support Google's equity raise and I do not support Meta's equity raise.
其中之一是反复出现的 AI 怀疑论者和 AI 空头 Gary Marcus，他在一条病毒式传播的推文中抨击谷歌，称谷歌正在建设一种商品，即 AI。
One of them from the repeated AI skeptic and AI bear which is Gary Marcus tearing apart Google in a viral tweet saying that Google is building out a commodity which is AI.
当我审视我的投资组合时，我通过四家超大规模企业重仓投资于人工智能。我们有 Meta、谷歌和微软，它们都在资本支出上花费数千亿美元。
When I look at my portfolio, I'm heavily invested in artificial intelligence through four hyperscalers. We have Meta, Google, and Microsoft, all spending hundreds of billions of dollars in capex.
在这些公司中，Meta、微软、亚马逊和谷歌占据了 AI 支出的大部分，它们是这场大规模资本支出建设的主要出资方。
Between those companies, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, we have the majority of AI spend, the companies funding this big capex buildout.
但正如他在这里强调的，谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊正变得更加资本支出密集。第一，每个人，甚至谷歌，似乎都把 AI 当作某种赢家通吃的竞争，就像网络搜索那样，谷歌占据了超过 95% 的份额。
But as he highlights here, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are becoming more capex heavy. One, everybody, even Google, seems to be treating AI as though it's some kind of winner take all competition like web search was in which Google was taking over 95%.
下个月可能是谷歌的 Gemini
the next month it might be Google's Gemini
再说一次，在 AI 出现之前，在我们公开发布第一个 Gemini 模型之前，谷歌云就已经在快速增长。它以较快的速度同比增长，主要销售与亚马逊网络服务相同的东西，主要是存储和 IT 基础设施。
Again, before AI even took place, before we had the first Gemini model publicly released, Google Cloud was growing quickly. It was growing year-over-year at a fast pace, mostly selling the same thing that Amazon Web Services was selling, mostly storage and IT infrastructure.
现在，关于这一点，我们有消息称 Meta 正在考虑进行大规模股权融资。这与我们听到的关于谷歌的消息类似。事实上，看起来有点像 Meta 只是在模仿谷歌。他们看到谷歌将通过稀释股东约 1.8% 的股份来获得大量资金。而 Meta 说也许我们也可以这样做。
Now, on this note, we have the news that Meta is weighing a big equity raise. This is similar to what we heard with Google. In fact, it looks a little bit like Meta is just copying Google. They've seen that Google is going to get a lot of money by diluting shareholders by like 1.8%. And Meta is saying maybe we can do the same thing.
现在，我持有这两家公司，Meta 和谷歌。而且我认为，就谷歌而言，这种稀释是一件好事。但我不喜欢 Meta 这样做。而且我希望他们出于几个原因最终不要这样做。
Now, I hold both of these companies, Meta and Google. And I believe in the case of Google, this delusion is a good thing. But I do not like it for Meta. And I hope that they don't end up doing this for a couple of reasons.
当我们看谷歌的远期市盈率时，它目前大约在 30 左右。所以谷歌的远期市盈率是 30。
When we look at the Ford PE of Google, it's currently sitting right around 30. So Google's at a 30 Ford PE.
接下来，我只是认为Meta的投资者对这一消息的反应会比谷歌糟糕得多。不仅因为稀释股本的代价会高得多，而且因为目前Meta的投资者比谷歌更担心资本回报。谷歌已经在一定程度上证明了他们将获得可观的资本回报，或者至少投资者相信这一点。
但对于Meta来说，这仍然是一个大问号。所以，我认为这实际上可能对Meta股价的负面影响远大于对谷歌的影响。因此，尽管这只是传闻，我还是希望Meta能找到一种不同于稀释股东的方式来筹集资本。
The next thing is that I just believe that Meta investors will react far more poorly to this news than Google. Not only because the dilution would be far more expensive, but because right now investors in Meta are a little bit more concerned about the return on capital than Google. Google has somewhat proven that they're going to have decent returns on capital, or at least investors believe that. But with Meta, that's still a big question mark. So, I think this could actually hit the stock price in a far more negative way for Meta than it did for Google. So, even though this is just rumored news, I'm hoping that Meta finds a different way of raising capital than diluting shareholders.