Joseph Carlson After Hours 对 $GOOGL 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
谷歌，这是我目前最大的持仓。这是一个27,000美元的仓位，浮盈113,000美元。谷歌今天交易价格约为347美元。所以，在347美元时，它的市盈率是26倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。
我不认为谷歌今天便宜。我现在不会买入。我继续持有它，主要是因为它是如此优秀的公司，我相信它的未来是光明的，但总的来说，我不认为它是一只值得立即买入的股票。我为谷歌设定的买入目标价是250美元，比当前价格低约100美元。
Google, which is my current largest position. It's a $27,000 position with $113,000 in the green. Google today trades at around $347. So at 347, it's trading at a 26 Ford PE ratio and a 1.2% free cash flow yield. I don't believe that Google's cheap today. I'm not buying it right now. I continue to hold it mostly because it's such a good company and I believe the future is bright for it, but overall it's not a company that I think is a screaming buy. And the buy target that I've set for Google is $250, so around $100 less than its current price.
如果我们假设未来5年每股收益增长率放缓至12%，很多人可能会说谷歌的增长远不止于此，这是事实，但他们将面临大量支出。他们正在建设大量的数据中心。他们在资本支出上投入了大量资金，这将转化为广告费用。
所以，我假设增长率将放缓。再说一次，这些是我认为保守的假设。我们假设未来5年每股收益增长率为12%。然后我们得到合适的每股收益倍数。现在，这有点主观判断。你可以说谷歌应该以30倍、35倍或25倍交易。
再次，我想非常保守。我假设它应该以22倍交易，因为如果每股收益开始放缓，也许投资者会说：“嘿，看，它增长没那么快了。我们会将其交易倍数降至22倍。”所以，这看起来有点令人困惑，因为我们在这里使用假设，但为了简单起见，如果我们以250美元买入谷歌，并且假设它以12%增长，每股收益倍数为22，这意味着我们将在未来5年获得14.1%的复合增长率。
这意味着如果我们以250美元买入谷歌，我们将从那个买入价获得大约翻倍的回报。谷歌将从250美元涨到484美元。所以，我们记下这一点。谷歌获得那10,000美元额外现金的买入目标价是250美元。
If we assume that the growth rate slows down to 12% earnings per share growth for the next 5 years, which a lot of people may argue and say Google's growing way faster than that, that's true, but they're going to have a lot of expenses. They're building out mass amounts of data centers. They're spending all of this money on capex, which will transform into advertised expenses. So, I'm assuming that the growth rate is going to moderate. And again, these are what I believe are conservative assumptions. We assume a 12% earnings per share growth rate over the next 5 years. Then we get to the appropriate earnings per share multiple. Now, this is a bit of a judgment call. You can say that Google should trade at a 30p or 35 or 25. Again, I want to be very conservative here. I'm going to assume that it should trade at a 22 because if the EPS starts to slow down, maybe investors say, "Hey, look, it's not growing as fast. We're going to we're going to trade it down to a 22 earnings per share multiple." So, this looks a little confusing because we're going with hypotheticals here, but just to make this very simple, if we were to buy Google at $250 and we had these assumptions that it grew at 12% and it had an EPS multiple of 22, that means that we would get a compounded growth rate of 14.1% over the next 5 years. Which means that if we bought Google at that $250, we would about double our return from that buyin price. Google would trade from $250 up to $484. So, we'll make a note of this. The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.
所以，我们记下这一点。谷歌获得那10,000美元额外现金的买入目标价是250美元。
So, we'll make a note of this. The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.
Gan，你对谷歌也有同样的看法。你认为CHACBT会摧毁谷歌。你说这对谷歌来说将是一个巨大的变革。你说10个蓝色链接将不再存在，谷歌将成为一个糟糕得多的公司。当谷歌股价为每股170美元时，你非常看跌。
它处于低价，完全低迷。情绪非常糟糕。你上CNBC，一直在谈论谷歌，说这只股票有多糟糕，它不会表现好。现在你持有谷歌。这是你最喜欢的仓位之一。你在谷歌股价上涨100%后上CNBC，说它将上涨。
所以，当报告显示谷歌一切正常时，你的情绪变得更加积极。
Gan, you had the same view on Google. You thought CHACBT was gonna destroy Google. You said it was going to be a big sea change for Google. You said the 10 blue links were no longer going to survive and that Google is going to be a way worse company. You were so bearish on Google when it was trading at $170 per share. It was is at a low price, completely depressed. Sentiment was terrible. And you went on to CNBC and you were talking all the time about Google, how bad this stock was, how it's not going to do well. Now you own Google. It's one of your favorite positions. You go on CNBC seeing how it's going to go up after Google's stock price went up 100%. So you became more more positive sentiment when the reports showed that Google was just fine.