The Motley Fool 对 $GOOGL 的判断变化
今天它便宜是因为市场担心谷歌的AI概览或ChatGPT这类AI聊天机器人正在窃取或带走Reddit网站的流量，而Reddit自己也表示他们看到搜索流量、谷歌流量有所下降。
Well, it's cheap today because the market fears that well, uh Google AI overviews or ChatGPT, these types of AI chatbots are stealing traffic or are taking traffic away from Reddit's website, and Reddit themselves have said that they've seen search traffic, Google traffic come down a little bit.
显然，将这些数据出售给Alphabet这样的公司，无意冒犯，会带来大量前期现金。Reddit的流量在很大程度上依赖于Alphabet（或者说谷歌，它归Alphabet所有）如何索引其链接。
Obviously, you know, selling that data to the likes of Alphabet, no pun intended, provides a lot of upfront cash Reddit's traffic relies a lot on how Alphabet indexes its links, or Google, I should say, owned by Alphabet.
我要谈谈Alphabet。这家公司我持有其股票多年。在我们录制这段视频时，该股的滚动市盈率大约在17倍左右。Alphabet的股价实际上在今年5月创下历史新高。当时，Alphabet的股价在过去一年中飙升了超过150%。
因此，在那段时间里，它们是标普500指数中表现最好的25只股票之一，远远超过了Mag 7中的许多股票。
Well, I'm going to talk about Alphabet. Um this is a company I've been a shareholder in for many years. You know, the stock is trading at a trailing price to earnings ratio of right around 17 at the time we're recording this video. I mean, Alphabet shares actually hit an all-time high back in May of this year. And at that point they shares of Alphabet had soared more than 150% in the prior year. So, they were among the 25 best performers in the S&P 500 index over that stretch, far outpacing a lot of the Mag 7.
自那以来，Alphabet的股价从峰值下跌了两位数。它们市值蒸发了约7000亿美元。这在那段时间对标普500指数构成了重大拖累。
Now, since that time we've seen Alphabet fall double digits from its peak. They've lost about 700 billion in market values. This has been a major drag on the S&P 500 in that span.
这其中有几个原因。人们担心它们投入的巨额资本支出是否真的能提升它们在AI竞赛中的地位。
And there's some reasons for that. There's been concerns about whether the, you know, intense CapEx that they are are leveraging is actually improving their standing in the AI race.
显然，和Mag 7的其他公司一样，它们也在投入建设基础设施以发展其技术。它们失去了一些顶尖员工，去了Anthropic和OpenAI。对此有一些担忧。
Obviously, like all of the other Mag 7, they're spending on building out the infrastructure to develop their technology. You know, they lost a couple top employees to Anthropic and OpenAI. There's been some concern about that.
它们强大的AI模型Gemini 3.5 Pro有一些延迟，尽管它们发布了3.7 Flash模型，该模型已成为迄今为止增长最快的模型之一。它们的Gemma模型下载量已超过10亿次。
Um, you know, there's been some delays about their powerful AI model Gemini 3.5 Pro, although they did release the 3.7 flash model, which has been, you know, one of the fastest growing models to date. They've seen their Gemma models surpass a billion downloads.
Alphabet现在进行的很多支出都是为了使其技术更快，为了降低运行AI的成本。在它们最近一个季度，Alphabet的收入达到1200亿美元，同比增长24%。谷歌云增长82%，达到250亿美元。
现在，它们的基础设施支出翻了一番，达到约450亿美元。
And a lot of the spending that Alphabet's doing right now, it's about making their tech faster. It's about cutting down the cost of running AI. You know, in their most recent quarter Alphabet's revenue hit $120 billion. That was a 24% year-over-year increase. Google Cloud grew 82% to $25 billion. Um, now their infrastructure spending doubled to about $45 billion.
与许多其他科技巨头不同，Alphabet并非只从其他供应商那里购买所有AI芯片。它们正在构建自己的定制AI芯片，称为TPU。由于它们自己构建硬件，它们能够以竞争对手成本的一小部分来处理大量AI工作负载和Gemini响应。
Now, unlike a lot of the other tech giants, Alphabet doesn't just buy all its AI chips from other suppliers. They are building their own custom AI chips called TPUs. And because they're they build their own hardware, they are able to handle a lot of the AI workloads and Gemini responses for a fraction of what it cost their competitors.
需要明确的是，它们仍然依赖外部芯片，但这些张量处理单元，这些TPU，我认为对它们的长期竞争优势非常非常关键。这正在改变核心业务。显然，搜索是它们通过谷歌搜索而闻名的。它们已经将传统搜索引擎彻底改造为这种主动的AI答案机器。
AI概览显然就是一个例子。因此，它们正在推高搜索广告收入，上个季度增长了17%，超过630亿美元。
They They are still reliant on outside chips to be clear, but these tensor processing units, these TPUs, are really, really key, I think, to their competitive advantage long-term. And it's changing the core business. I mean, obviously, search is what they're known for through Google search. They have really overhauled their traditional search engine into this active AI answer machine. You know, AI overviews, obviously, is one example. And so, they are pushing up their search ad revenue. That grew 17% to over $63 billion in the last quarter.
谷歌云的利润增长了两倍，达到约90亿美元。这是因为Alphabet正在利用其AI模型帮助数百万企业自动化广告。同时，在企业端，它们也在帮助谷歌云上的客户。因此，它们证明了其巨额支出正在立即带来高利润收入。
Um Google Cloud's profits have tripled to about $9 billion. That's because, you know, Alphabet is using its AI models to help, you know, millions of businesses automate their ads. And they're also on the enterprise side, uh helping their clients on Google Cloud. And so, they are proving that their heavy spending is bringing in that high margin revenue right away.
最后一点，我们还关注一家控制着全球最大媒体和流媒体业务之一的公司，即YouTube，对吧？YouTube约占Alphabet整个市值的30%。
And then, you know, one final note I'll look at, we also look at a business that uh controls one of the largest media and streaming operations in the world, YouTube, right? YouTube accounts for about 30% of Alphabet's entire market value.
所以，这是一家我继续极度看好的公司。我认为你正以非常有利的估值获得其行业中最赚钱的业务之一。我当然不认为最近股价承受的压力是合理的，但也许这对投资者来说也是一个机会。
So, this is a company I continue to be extremely bullish on. I think you're getting one of the most profitable businesses um in their industry at a very favorable valuation right now. I certainly don't think the pressure that we see have seen on the stock recently has been warranted, but maybe that's an opportunity for investors, too.
在2025年，我谈论Alphabet可能有点太多了，一些观众去年可能已经注意到，但在我看来，去年它被严重低估了。现在你也能获得很多价值。
In 2025, I was talking about Alphabet maybe one too many times, as some some viewers might have noticed last year, but it it was extremely undervalued last year in my opinion. You're getting a lot of value right now as well.
是的，当然股价要高得多。是的，它价值超过4万亿美元，但正如你所说，云收入在加速增长。不仅加速，同时利润率也在扩大。积压订单持续增长。他们几乎控制着自己拥有的一切：TPU、数据中心软件，等等。
Yes, of course the stock is much higher. Yes, it's worth more than $4 trillion, but as you said, cloud revenue accelerates. Not only does it accelerate, but margin expands as well at the same time. You've got a backlog that continues to grow and grow. You've got them controlling basically everything that they own. TPUs, data center software, you name it.
像谷歌母公司Alphabet这样超级盈利的公司会从这种情况中走出来，变得更加强大，因为他们可以四处看看，说，好吧，你是一家很棒的公司，你现在似乎有些困难，我们也许能以70美分兑1美元的价格收购你。
他们能做到这一点，因为虽然现在自由现金流可能再次面临压力，但本质上这是一项极其盈利的业务。
Super profitable companies like a Google Alphabet are going to come out of this situation as much stronger companies because well, they could then go and shop around and see okay, you're a great company. You seem to be struggling right now. We might just acquire you for 70 cents on the dollar or something like that. They can do it because okay, right now maybe free cash flow is again under pressure, but to the core it is a extremely profitable business.