Dividendology 对 $HTGC 的判断变化
但是，在当前价格下，第一只看起来非常有趣的高收益股票是 Hercules Capital，股票代码为 HTGC。
But, the first high yield stock that looks very interesting at its current prices is Hercules Capital, stock ticker HTGC.
现在，我们必须理解的一件事是，当我们看过去一年的股价时，它下跌了大约 11%，而年初至今下跌了大约 9.4%。
Now, one of the things we have to understand is when we look at the stock price in the last year, it's down by around 11%, and year-to-date, down by about 9.4%.
显然，与更广泛的市场相比，这是严重的表现不佳。但是，我们也需要理解我们正在看的股票类型。我们正在看的是商业发展公司，即 BDC。
Obviously, compared to the broader market, that is some serious underperformance. But, we also need to understand the type of stock we're looking at. We're looking at a business development company, a BDC.
首先，让我们谈谈股息收益率。如果我们放大并向下滚动，我们可以在这里看到 Hercules Capital。如果我们开始滚动，我们可以看到基本股息在这里列出的约为 9.5%，总股息为 11.1%。
To start, let's talk about the dividend yield. If we zoom in and scroll down, we can see Hercules Capital right here. If we start to scroll over, we can see the base dividend right here listed at about 9.5% and the total dividend listed at 11.1%.
为什么显示两种不同的股息收益率？嗯，我们必须理解的是，这些 BDC 在有机会时经常会支付特别股息。所以，当我们在这里查看 Seeking Alpha 上的股息历史时（顺便说一下，链接在描述中），在深灰色部分，我们可以看到这些是正在支付的基本股息。
但在上面，橙色部分，这些是在基本股息之上支付的特别股息。我们必须理解的是，这些特别股息并不保证。他们在可能时分配它们。但这就是为什么你在很多软件上看到的初始收益率具有误导性，因为这里 Seeking Alpha 上的收益率是 11.1%。
而实际上，这个 BDC 的基本股息收益率是 9.5%。
Why is there two different dividend yields shown? Well, what we have to understand is these BDCs will frequently pay out special dividends when they have the opportunity to. So, when we look at the dividend history here on Seeking Alpha, which link in the description by the way, in the dark gray color here, we can see these are the base dividends that are being paid out. But on top, in the orange, these are the special dividends that are being paid on top base dividend. What we have to understand is these special dividends aren't guaranteed. They distribute them when they're possible. But this is why the initial yield you see on a lot of softwares is misleading because the yield here on Seeking Alpha is 11.1%. When in reality, the base dividend yield for this BDC is sitting at 9.5%.
如果我们看基本股息覆盖率，基本上，它保持在 100%，本质上意味着公司现在正在使用其所有净投资收入来支付股息，这简而言之意味着他们明年将难以维持那些特别股息。
And if we look at the base dividend coverage, basically, it's sitting at 100%, essentially meaning the company is using all their net investment income right now to pay out dividends, which in short means it's going to be difficult for them to maintain those special dividends over the next year.
所以，现实是，如果你今天买入这只股票，你更有可能获得接近 9.5% 的收益率，而不是 11.1%，至少基于当前数字看起来是这样。话虽如此，为什么这个 BDC 下跌这么多？
So, the reality is you're more than likely going to get a yield of closer to 9.5% versus 11.1% if you buy this stock today, at least based on how the current numbers look. Now, with that being said, why is this BDC down so much?
然而，这并没有改变太多。很多这些 BDC 在其投资组合中对软件公司有大量敞口，一般来说，市场认为这些类型的公司容易受到 AI 的颠覆。如果我们在这里看 Hercules Capital，HTGC，我们可以看到大约 33%，接近 34% 的贷款组合与科技/软件公司有关。这对很多投资者来说是一个重大担忧。
However, this hasn't changed nearly as much. A lot of these BDCs have significant exposure to software companies in their portfolio, which generally speaking the market feels are the type of companies that are prone to disruption from AI. And if we look at Hercules Capital right here, HTGC, we can see about 33, close to 34% of their loan portfolio is tied up with tech/software companies. That's a major concern for a lot of investors.
在 2026 年第二季度，Hercules 产生了每股 50 美分的净投资收入，这轻松覆盖了 40 美分的常规股息（不是总股息），覆盖率为 125%。所以，对于第二季度来说，这是一个好迹象。
During Q2 of 2026, Hercules generated 50 cents per share of net investment income, which comfortably covered the 40-cent regular dividend, not the total dividend, by 125%. So, for Q2, that's a good sign.
目前，HTGC 的投资组合中只有 0.1% 是由已停止产生利息收入的问题贷款组成的，这确实突显了公司异常强劲的信贷质量。我的意思是，0.1% 对于 BDC 来说是非常低的。
Only 0.1% of HTGC's portfolio is currently made up of troubled loans that have stopped generating interest income, which really highlights the company's exceptionally strong credit quality. I mean, 0.1% that's incredibly low for a BDC.
是的，软件敞口很高，但整体投资组合表现非常好，当你看到公司的估值时，这就开始变得合理了。是的，他们目前的交易价格约为其历史平均估值倍数 1.37，而 10 年平均值为 1.38。
但即便如此，如果你看过去 5 年，他们仍然在其估值倍数的较低端交易。
Yes, software exposure is high, but the overall portfolio has done tremendously well, which when you look at the company's valuation, it starts to make sense. Yes, they're trading at about their historic average valuation multiple of 1.37, while the 10-year average is 1.38. But, even then, if you look at it in the last 5 years, they're still trading on the lower end of their valuation multiple.
但与此同时，如果他们能够维持 9.5% 的收益率，同时慢慢增长其净资产价值（这正是分析师预计他们在未来 3 年将做的事情），那么当我们看价格与有形账面价值每股之比时，他们完全有理由以轻微溢价交易。
But, at the exact same time, if they can maintain a 9.5% yield, while simultaneously slowly growing their net asset value, which is exactly what analysts are projecting them to do over the next 3 years, then they have every right to be trading at a slight premium when we look at the price to tangible book value per share.
但是，当你开始深入研究这个 BDC 的基础贷款组合和股息覆盖率时，你可以看到这看起来是更具吸引力的机会之一，特别是在非常高收益领域。
But, when you start to dive into the underlying loan portfolio and the dividend coverage for this BDC, you can see this looks like one of the more attractive opportunities, particularly in the very high yield space.