Joseph Carlson 对 $IMAX 的判断变化
我要重点介绍的第一只股票是 IMAX。这是我一段时间以来觉得有趣的一只股票，尤其是因为现在很多电影，尤其是大制作，都以 IMAX 格式上映。
The first stock that I'll be highlighting is IMAX. This is one that I found interesting for some time, especially because so many movies now, especially the big ones, are being released in IMAX.
最新上映的是《奥德赛》，其票房将超过 10 亿美元。这部电影 100% 使用 IMAX 摄影机拍摄，这是这里最重要的区别。
The latest one to be released was The Odyssey, which is going to do over a billion dollars of sales. This movie was shot 100% using IMAX cameras and that is the most important distinction here.
很多人认为 IMAX 只是有一个方形屏幕或高屏幕，但这并不是 IMAX 的真正含义。要理解这只股票到底是什么，这家公司是什么，你需要理解 IMAX 到底是什么。
A lot of people view IMAX as just having a square screen or a tall screen and that's not really what IMAX is. To understand what this actual stock is, what the company is, you need to understand what IMAX actually is.
它几乎设定了一个标准，一个事物应有的标准。但在这种情况下，为了这个标准的存在，它必须从头到尾以 IMAX 格式完成。IMAX 参与了 IMAX 电影的整个制作过程。
It almost sets a standard, a standard of the way something should be. But in this case, for that standard to exist, it has to be done in IMAX from beginning to end. IMAX is involved in the entire production of an IMAX movie.
例如，克里斯托弗·诺兰联系了 IMAX，表示他们想为《奥德赛》使用 IMAX。这发生在几年前。克里斯托弗·诺兰还拥有上映时间和独家权。这就是为什么《奥德赛》有 IMAX 版本而新的《蜘蛛侠》没有。
诺兰是第一个排队的。IMAX 在诺兰开始拍摄这部电影之前就已经与他达成了承诺。
For example, Christopher Nolan contacted IMAX saying that they wanted to use IMAX for The Odyssey. This happened years ago. Christopher Nolan also had the release time and he had the exclusivity. This is why The Odyssey had IMAX and the new Spider-Man didn't. Nolan was first in line. IMAX had made a commitment with Nolan before he started filming the movie itself.
但接下来，你还必须以某种风格拍摄。大多数 IMAX 电影都有一部分，很大一部分，是用 IMAX 摄影机拍摄的。这些是巨大的胶片摄影机，能够捕捉数字无法复制的细节。用 IMAX 拍摄是一项更困难的任务，但它能在屏幕上捕捉更多细节。
But then from there, you also have to film in a certain style. Most IMAX movies have a portion of the movie, a large part of it, done in IMAX cameras. These are incredibly huge film cameras that capture detail that digital cannot replicate. It's a more difficult task to film with IMAX, but it captures more detail on the screen.
这是关于 IMAX 的另一个重大误解。很多人认为 IMAX 仅仅意味着屏幕很高，或者图像更方正、更方形而不是宽屏。但这并不是 IMAX 的真正含义。IMAX 摄影机实际上收集更多细节，这意味着屏幕上有更多像素、更多分辨率来显示更多信息。
所以它不仅仅是把图像拉伸成方形或非常高的图像。实际上只是有更多内容可以展示。它收集更多数据。它可以在更大的屏幕上显示更多内容，同时保持更多细节。
And this is another big misconception about IMAX. A lot of people think that IMAX simply means that the screen is tall or that the image is more boxy and squared and not widescreen. But that's not really what IMAX is. IMAX cameras actually collect more detail, meaning that there's more pixels, more resolution on the screen to display more information. So it's not simply taking an image and stretching it to a square image or really tall image. There's actually just more to show. It collects more data. It can display more on a larger screen while keeping more detail.
所以 IMAX 是更大的摄影机、更多的胶片、更多的细节、更大的画面。而且这还不止于此。IMAX 对音频也有极其详细和具体的标准。对于 IMAX 影厅，他们对音频必须如何工作、一切必须如何发声都有具体细节。
为了确保无论谁去全球任何一家 IMAX 影院都能获得一致的体验，他们都拥有相同水平的音频质量和视觉质量。IMAX 还会定期审计这些影院，确保它们符合所有标准。
So IMAX is bigger cameras, more film, more detail, bigger picture. And it doesn't end there. IMAX also has incredibly detailed and specific standards for audio. For an IMAX auditorium, they have specific details of how the audio must work, how everything must sound. And in order to ensure a consistent experience whenever somebody goes to any IMAX theater across the globe that they all have the same level of quality of audio quality and visual quality. IMAX also routinely audits these theaters making sure that they're compliant with all the standards.
你现在开始明白 IMAX 是什么了吗？这不仅仅是一个拉伸的屏幕或更大的图像。IMAX 代表了观看电影最高水平的标杆。一个到目前为止没有其他人能匹敌的标杆。这就是这只股票变得有趣的地方。
Are you starting to see what IMAX is now? This isn't just a stretched screen or a bigger image. IMAX represents the standard of the highest level of viewing a movie. A standard that nobody else so far can match. And this is where the stock gets interesting.
我们知道现在 IMAX 股票已经上涨了一些。今年上涨了 40%，得益于这些大制作电影。回顾过去一年，它上涨了 100%，看到股票这样上涨可能会让你觉得你错过了机会，或者股票被高估了。但情况可能并非如此。
We know that right now IMAX stock has gone up a bit. It's up 40% this year off of the back of these big movies. When you look over the past year it's up 100% and seeing the stock trend up like this may give you the impression that you missed the train or that the stock is overvalued. But that may not be the case.
当我们看 IMAX 的实际倍数时，它们看起来并不太差。它的远期市盈率为 27 倍，自由现金流收益率为 4.5%。它确实有一些基于股票的补偿，所以这将其降至正常化的 3.5% 自由现金流收益率。
When we look at IMAX's actual multiples they don't look too bad. It's at a 27 forward PE ratio with a 4 and 1/2% free cash flow yield. It does have some stock-based comp so that takes it down to a normalized 3 and 1/2% free cash flow yield.
但当我审视 IMAX 时，我看到了其他投资者我相信仍然忽视的东西。IMAX 的定价基于其当前的财务状况和当前的业务经济状况，就好像它将继续像以前那样有机增长一样。但我相信有可能发生戏剧性的变化。
那就是 IMAX 被对待的方式更像是一场音乐会，而不是一家电影院。
But when I look at IMAX I see something that other investors I believe are still missing. IMAX is being priced on its current financials and the current economic of the business as if it's going to continue organically growing how it has previously. But I believe there's a chance for a dramatic change. And that is that IMAX gets treated less like a movie theater and more like a concert.
如果你想想 IMAX 代表什么，它把看电影的体验从去看电影变成了去参加一个活动。当你去看 IMAX 电影，在最大的屏幕上、最大的音响系统、最大的影厅里观看时，你是在参加一个活动。一个像去喜剧俱乐部、音乐会或球赛那样的活动。
If you think about what IMAX represents it changes the movie going experience from going to the movies to now going to an event. When you go to an IMAX movie and you see it on the biggest screen with the biggest sound system in the biggest auditorium you are going to an event. An event like going to a comedy club or a concert or a ball game.
活动和喜剧俱乐部有激增定价。他们有基于需求的定价。他们有弹性定价。所以对泰勒·斯威夫特门票的需求越大，对世界杯比赛的需求越大，价格就越高。所有这些公司都在这样做，除了 IMAX。
IMAX 仍然以每张票约 15 到 20 美元的价格为人们排队数月观看的电影定价。人们显然会支付 IMAX 所收取票价的多倍。
Events and comedy clubs have surge pricing. They have pricing based on demand. They have flex pricing. So the more demand there is for Taylor Swift tickets the more demand there is for a World Cup game the higher the price is. All of these companies are doing this except for IMAX. IMAX is a company that still prices their tickets for about $15 to $20 per ticket for a movie that people are lining up for months to see. People would obviously pay multiples over the price of the ticket that IMAX is charging.
但这就是问题所在。IMAX 不能设定票价，只有影院才能。IMAX 是一家轻资产企业，不拥有任何实体影院。他们只是授权他们的技术，与创作者合作，并审计影院以确保它们符合标准。但这就是 IMAX 的麻烦所在。
But that's the issue. IMAX can't set the ticket prices, only the theaters can. IMAX is an asset-light business that doesn't own any physical theaters. They simply license their technology, they work with creators, and they audit the theaters to make sure that they're up to standards. But that's where the trouble comes in for IMAX.
正因为如此，IMAX 留下了巨大的价值盈余。本可以卖到 70 美元一张的电影票现在卖 20 美元一张。但有理由相信这种情况可能会改变。想想这里的潜力。目前，IMAX 的定价基于稳定的有机增长，也许每年收入增长 10% 到 15%。
看起来即使按照目前的定价结构，它也能实现这一目标，仅仅因为对 IMAX 好电影的需求已经提高了。
And because of that, IMAX is leaving a huge value surplus on the table. Tickets that could be selling for $70 a movie are now selling for $20 a movie. But there's reason to believe that could change. And just think of the potential here. Right now, IMAX is being priced with steady organic growth, maybe growing revenue by 10% to 15% per year. And it looks like it will accomplish that even with its current pricing structure, simply because the demand for good movies in IMAX has been raised.
而且每年都有更多电影登陆 IMAX。下一部将是《沙丘 3》。之后，他们已经排好了 2027 年和 2028 年的电影，他们甚至正在与制片人洽谈 2029 年的电影。未来几年，IMAX 已经签署了协议。
他们已经有了有机的收入增长。已经重新燃起了人们对这种音乐会式体验的兴趣，去看 IMAX 电影。
And every year, there's more movies coming to IMAX. The next one is going to be Dune 3. After that, they already have movies lined up for 2027 and 2028, and they're even in talks with producers for movies in 2029. Years into the future, IMAX has signed up deals. They already have organic revenue growth. There's already a resurgence of people interested in this concert-like experience going to an IMAX movie.
而且我相信，像AMC这样的公司转向高峰定价、基于需求的定价，以配合IMAX的重要发行，只是时间问题。如果这种情况发生，IMAX的收入可能在一年内跃升。它可能会大幅上升，因为那些票的价值会高得多。
And I believe it's only a matter of time until companies like AMC move to surge pricing, to demand-based pricing based on the key IMAX releases. If and when that happens, IMAX's revenue could jump in a single year. It could go up substantially because those tickets would be worth so much more.
举个例子，在eBay或其他可以转售门票的二级市场上，诺兰的《奥德赛》IMAX 70毫米首周票的价格在每张300美元到1000美元之间。这部电影在社交媒体上走红。人们觉得他们需要用IMAX观看，许多财力雄厚的人愿意支付远高于标准票价的价格。
As an example, on the secondary markets like eBay or other websites that you can flip tickets, the first week release of the IMAX 70 mm tickets for Nolan's The Odyssey were going anywhere for $300 to $1,000 per tickets. This movie went viral on social media. People felt like they needed to see it with IMAX, and many people with deep pockets were willing to pay much more than the standard ticket price.
当然，票价上涨对消费者不利，我知道你们中的许多人可能会抱怨这是票价变得更贵的又一个例子，但这就是游戏规则。如果有足够的需求，公司最终会通过提高价格来匹配这种需求。而IMAX拥有其他公司无法比拟的特殊之处。
所以，即使价格呈上升趋势，我相信这家公司仍有巨大的潜力。
Now, of course, the tickets being more expensive isn't good for consumers, and I know that many of you may gripe that this is another example of tickets becoming more expensive, but that is the name of the game. If there is enough demand, companies will eventually match that demand with increased prices. And IMAX has something special that no other company has been able to match. So, even with the price trending upwards, I believe there is huge potential for this company.