Meet Kevin 对 $INTU 的判断变化

Of course, the stock is actually falling on it. That's usual. That's like Oh, here we go. Here's the forecast. closing out the trading. Uh forecast comes in at a midpoint a little bit below 2351 divided by or 2351 minus 2328.23 plus 23.28 51 divided by 23.82. So it comes in at about a 1.3% miss on into it.

Let's write these down on forecast. So, revenue B, let's go because this guy's this has been a cheap software stock.

Okay, so into it into it comes in with let's write this down. Okay, here we go. into it is 1.3% miss on forecast for 2027 revenue.

You've got a uh revenue beat for Q4. So that would be 27 revenue start that basically starts July 2026. Rev beat for Q4. The beat was 4.35 divided by 4.27 that was about 1.8% beat here.

Then you have uh adjusted EPS forecast comes in at well operating income what is let's do operating adjusted operating income is the line I'm actually looking at. So for 2027, this is a this is definitely a lower guide for operating income. I've got the midpoint there 9 about 8 roughly about 8.1 billion versus the estimate that's a big miss versus the estimate of 9.97. So that's interesting. Uh that's a big miss. Big miss on adjusted operating income. Okay, so that's a miss of 8.1 versus 9.97. That's about a 18.8% miss on adjusted operating income.

Okay, so that's a miss of 8.1 versus 9.97. That's about a 18.8% miss on adjusted operating income. And then they say Q1 growth. Q1 forecast 4.3 billion. Oh, that must be their renewal period. Oh, no. That's that's revenue. That's not the bottom. Okay, that makes sense. Uh, versus 4.37 billion. So, that's also a miss on this. 4.37. That is a 1.6% miss.

So, a little messy. This is Let's see here. Uh, Q1 adjusted EPS misses as well. Well, Q1 revenue is supposed to be that's interesting. Q1 revcast up 11%. Uh, but forecast Q1 EPS misses at 2.46 per share versus 4.0 expected. Ouch. That's a big miss.

This is Let's see here. Uh, Q1 adjusted EPS misses as well. Well, Q1 revenue is supposed to be that's interesting. Q1 revcast up 11%. Uh, but forecast Q1 EPS misses at 2.46 per share versus 4.0 expected. Ouch. That's a big miss.

So Q1's missing. I wonder why. Let's see here. uh you've got Q4 business solutions were stable. So the forecast basically what we're getting is forecast on uh Q1 and 2027 EPS and revenue miss EPS misses harder and let me see revenue revenue. Yeah, EPS misses harder. So, you know, some margin compression here.

uh you've got Q4 business solutions were stable. So the forecast basically what we're getting is forecast on uh Q1 and 2027 EPS and revenue miss EPS misses harder

and let me see revenue revenue. Yeah, EPS misses harder. So, you know, some margin compression here. Uh, so we'll have to see why because the the revenue miss isn't that big of a deal for Q1. Q1 revenue miss revenue miss Q1 uh is 4.3 1.6%.

Uh, so we'll have to see why because the the revenue miss isn't that big of a deal for Q1. Q1 revenue miss revenue miss Q1 uh is 4.3 1.6%. And 2027 miss is they're getting hit. I wonder if they're getting hit by tokens 1.3%. Right. So, it's really the bottom line is getting hit. Bottom line is getting hit. Uh in my opinion, this is going to be token costs. I'm likely token costs.

And 2027 miss is they're getting hit. I wonder if they're getting hit by tokens 1.3%. Right. So, it's really the bottom line is getting hit. Bottom line is getting hit. Uh in my opinion, this is going to be token costs. I'm likely token costs.

Um revenue miss is nominal, you know, 1.3 to 1.6% 6% probably explained by um losing lowerend customers and uh hopefully offsetting with higherend customers, but that EPS miss uh but that EPS missing. So, you got to see what's going on. you know, if if they're doing what a lot of software companies are doing right now. A lot of software codes are seeing token costs skyrocket and uh that shows up in EPS. We'll see.

So, you got to see what's going on. you know, if if they're doing what a lot of software companies are doing right now. A lot of software codes are seeing token costs skyrocket and uh that shows up in EPS. We'll see. Okay. So, that's interesting.

Okay. So, that's interesting. Let's Did we put into it on here? Yeah, we put into it on here. Okay. Let's push that through. Let's actually go look at the filing then. And then SEC earnings. So, let's go find out what that one says.

Let's Did we put into it on here? Yeah, we put into it on here. Okay. Let's push that through. Let's actually go look at the filing then. And then SEC earnings. So, let's go find out what that one says.

All right, let's go see what's going on. What was in some of the documents here for into it. You could actually see the in it earnings came out here on the alpha wire nicely, which is kind of cool. So, you could see them come through in case you wanted to kind of see those yourself on the alpha wire. Some of the big companies will have their earnings come right through on the wire, which is nice. Okay, let's go see into it. Investor relations. That's probably gonna drag software down tomorrow and earnings release a 25. Yeah, here we go. Okay, you can see the alpha wire for a sec while I pull this into it. Q4 earnings plus release 825. Okay, this is right here. Let's go see where their expenses went.

Okay, we surpassed 20 billion in revenue for the full year fueled by big bets. Blah blah blah. Strategy is to win. Uh, our strategy is to win AIdriven export platform by creating a financial system of intelligence that does work for consumers, businesses, and accountants. Fine. Total revenue grew 14%. Great. So, it's an expectations miss. 16% on global businesses. Consumer revenue grew. Operating income grew. Earnings per share grew 20%. So, what's with the forecast? Why did we miss on the forecast? These were just expectations that got hit because this all looks like growth.

QuickBooks online revenue increased 23%. Online services revenue increased 16%. Excluding Mailchimp, online services grew 24%. So Mailchimp is getting hit probably because of like AI email.

Uh uh yes, there is a CPO transition going on. You're right. We could probably do a video on it for Nvidia. Okay. Uh but back to this consumer revenue increased 11%. So

Turboax only 7% growth. Turboax live revenue up 37% though representing 53% of Turboax revenue. Interesting. Credit Karma increase. How does Credit Karma still keep making money? 20% increase on Credit Karma. So Turboax is still in shrink mode. Uh that doesn't surprise me.

Okay, let's see here. Capital allocation into it repurchased 5.5 billion of stock. That's fine. Mailchimp will be a separate reporting segment. That's fine. They're trying to show that the other part of the business is growing. outside of Mailchimp.

Okay, let's go look at their statements balance sheet cash flow. Okay, this is the cash flow statement. So the cash flow statement indicates net income grew net income grew by 4566 divided by 3869. Net income up 18%. Then I've got uh let's see here. Sharebase compensation is not up that much. Well, the stock has also been going down. 1968 4.4%.

You've got uh let's see here. operating purchases of corporate and customer fund investments. Okay, so they've got a big financing arm. Plant property and equipment is pretty nominal. So we really got maturities of corporate and fund investments. Pretty substantial cash flow. It's about 8.7 in what time frame is that for the year? Yeah, 8.7 billion in cash flow. Yeah, this has a cap of $97 billion. So, call it 8.6 here. So, you know, this is really like about a 9% free cash flow yield. So, it's a pretty high cash flow yield. The the valuation is pretty suppressed based on how much cash they make.

Uh purchase notes for investment, principal notes, that's a lending business, repayments of debt, proceeds of long-term. What do we got here? Buybacks, dividends, and then they did take on debts of 1.7. We'll see what the balance sheet looks like. Did take on some borrowing. borrowing probably to do buybacks. Borrowing in part going to buybacks.

Okay, let's go look at balance sheet. I've got bills. Bills of 1.2. No, that's going to be bills of call it 9 to 3. 4 plus the other 4.2 billion and current current liabilities before funds and amounts due to customers, funds payable and amounts due to customers. Five billion funds due to customers because they also have the QuickBooks banking. That's probably where some of that sits. Long-term debts are pretty much all of those. So, that's about seven 7.5 billionish long-term. Okay. So, we should see 5 billion the cash due to the customers. There it is. Funds held for customers, right? So, this five billion washes with that five billion. 4.2 in bills. I've got 4.7 in cash and then here are the investments. So enough cash to pay uh bills, you know, but you know, you still have the long term. So it's kind of it's meh. Still have long-term after cash representing about one year of cash flow. Yellowish balance sheet. You know, it's not not the greatest, but they do have nice cash flow. they just, you know, moved that to buybacks instead. Uh, you know, call it 8 billion free cash flow. Uh, could pay off but bought back stock instead.

Okay. How's their income statement? So, income sits at revenue. Here we go. So total revenue 43 54 / 383 31 13.6% increase in rev their costs of goods sold 894 divided by 3783 that's only 23.6% cost. That's like nothing. And then this is like 16 divided by 571 2.8% cost like the super high margin products. Uh very high margin products. Gross margin is 894 + 16 + 43 divided by and that's okay that's fine. Divided by 4354. Oh, 78.2%. On the gross margin side. That's really good.

And then if I look at we've got some restructuring expenses here, but I've got SGNA. The S is up. Oh, good. Only up 1%. These are year-over-year on three months, right? Yeah. Only up 1% on sales. That's good. That's up 7%. So, I mean, they're they're spending 1% more on sales and they're driving revenue 13.6%. So, that's actually going well. And then GNA down. Obviously, you got some restructuring costs in here. That's a hit, but you could I mean, that's not going to be recurring, so you should be able to add that back in. So, operating income would have gone up a lot more if it weren't for that hit. So, the restructuring hit hurt. I wonder if that's in their forecast.

Uh her bottom line. I wonder if that's why that that would actually be better because it would be one time in terms of why they're getting hit here. Uh is restructuring causing forward EPS miss. That's not as bad.

Okay, let's see here. See if they have any notes. Out of coffee. I'm out of coffee. It's not coffee. It's coffee. No. Dang it. Restructure. Wait here. Yeah, they don't they just don't really mention anything, so you'd have to wait for the call for it. But I wonder if that's what's going on on the net side. Tax, taxes, conference call, forecasts. Doesn't say up here. Well, their 10Q will show when it comes out and so will their earnings call. Let me look at their last earnings call. See if that gives guidance because that's not that would not be that bad. That would actually be good because it means they're reducing their cost. So I need an earnings call for in it in it earnings call. Here we go. So the last one was May. Oh, there it is. Look, look, look, look. That's crazy. It's the first thing that comes up and really there are several things that lead to a 17% reduction in workers. So um note from August 25 is this section why um EPS is being cut for 2027 fiscal year which is July 2026 to June 2027. Uh if so, EPS miss is actually a good thing, but that should have been built in in terms of the severance cost to the forecast, but it wasn't apparently. We'll find out. We'll find out more in the earnings calls, but that's probably what it is. It's they're they're literally replacing people with AI.

Uh a couple things. We're very aggressive to tackle customers that are less than 5,000 around one time offers, right? basically weak pee pe at the under 50,000 people at under 50k.

Uh oh yeah, Mailchimp revenue is down because Kevin stopped emailing to Daily Wealth and Kevin made an app with the team obviously to send the Daily Wealth. Remember, you can get the Daily Wealth alert free. You just download the Meek Kevin app. download the Meek Heaven app, you get not only the uh wire service, but then you get the daily wealth as well, which I just think is kind of nice. Try to send that out around 7 o'clock, 78ish at night, California time. Little nighttime read short. Uh, okay. Well, that's going to be very interesting. If that's where the EPS hit came from, it's actually a good thing. So, we'll have to wait and see what happens.