The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $LVMH 的判断变化

2026-09-03
Ranking our Portfolio Watchlist – Meta, CSU, Copart, Shopify (Tier List)
对LVMH持中性态度;因营业利润大幅下滑(从225亿美元降至不足170亿美元)且缺乏明显催化剂,尽管估值吸引人,仍将其置于C/D级。

我实际上也考虑过再看LVMH和MS,有点像奢侈品剧本以及他们如何运作。

I actually thought about also looking at LVMH and MS again sort of as like the luxury playbook and how they are doing.

所以LVMH第一次进入我的视野是在2024年。我们大师社区的一位成员和我谈过它,奢侈品行业听起来太好了,不像是真的。你知道,有很多非常富有的人,他们不在乎价格,他们非常对价格不敏感,而且他们对这些奢侈品上瘾。

所以你可以看到LVMH的营业利润在2023年达到顶峰。这在当时非常符合叙事。然后我们看到它大幅下降。所以220亿美元的营业利润,22.5亿美元的营业利润在23年12月那个财年,然后在过去12个月略低于170亿美元。所以这是一个戏剧性的下降。

So uh LVMH was first uh was first put on my radar um back in 2024. a member of our uh mastermind community talked to me about it and um you know the luxury industry it just sounded uh the thesis sounded too good to be true. You know it was uh oh there's a lot of really rich people and they don't care about the price for what they pay. Uh they're you know very very price insensitive uh and you know they're addicted to these luxury goods. Um and and so that was very much like you could see uh the operating profit peaked in 2023 for LVMH. That was very much uh the narrative uh at the time. Um and then we've seen that decline substantially. Uh so 22 billion in operating profit, 22.5 billion um in operating profit uh in December 23 for that fiscal year and then in the last 12 months a bit under 17 billion. Um so that's a that's a dramatic um decline.