Joseph Carlson 对 $MELI 的判断变化
接下来，我必须强调 Mercado Libre。它是整个南美洲最好的公司。它与亚马逊非常相似，但这也是很多投资者搞错的地方。
Next, I have to highlight Mercado Libre. It's the best company in all of South America. It is very similar to Amazon, but that's also where a lot of investors get it wrong.
确实，Mercado Libre 是一家大型零售企业，但它与亚马逊最大的区别在于，亚马逊专注于云托管和零售，而 Mercado Libre 专注于金融方面。这就是这只股票变得非常有趣的地方。
It is true that Mercado Libre is a massive retail business, but its biggest difference from Amazon is that while Amazon focused on cloud hosting and retail, Mercado Libre is focused on the financial aspect. And this is where this stock gets really interesting.
如果我们看一些关键绩效指标，其中之一是金融科技月活跃用户。这一数字一直在大幅增长。2024 年，他们有 4900 万金融科技月活跃用户。现在他们有 8800 万。而且每个季度都在增长。
其中很多是信用卡。所以这与亚马逊非常不同，而且增长概况也与亚马逊不同。
If we look at some of the KPIs here, one of them is the Fintech monthly active users. And this has been growing substantially. In 2024, they had 49 million monthly active Fintech users. Now they have 88 million. It's also growing every single quarter. And a lot of this is credit card. So this is very different than Amazon, and it's also different in the growth profile than an Amazon.
最大的区别在于，Mercado Libre 的总可寻址市场不受拉丁美洲零售业的限制。它不受拉丁美洲在线销售的限制。现在它是一个大得多的 TAM。现在，每当人们花钱、存钱、借钱或转账时，公司都能赚钱。
这是一个非常有趣的看涨理由，而且他们正在抓住这一点。
The biggest differentiator is that Mercado Libre's total addressable market is not limited by Latin America's retail. It's not limited by Latin America online sales. It's now a much greater TAM. The company now makes money anytime people spend or save or borrow or transfer money from one person to another. That is a very interesting bull case for this company and one that they're seizing.
Mercado Libre 的困难之处在于，像许多雄心勃勃、涉足多个巨大垂直领域的公司一样，投资者必须等待。虽然收入继续以前所未有的速度增长，但股价在过去 5 年相对持平。这是因为它像 2021 年的许多公司一样被高估，而且他们牺牲短期经济和盈利能力来换取更多增长。
所以这家公司的投资者需要耐心，但回报可能巨大。在拉丁美洲建立一家大型银行和金融科技公司，以及最大的零售商。
The difficult part about Mercado Libre is like many of these companies that are highly ambitious and go for multiple huge verticals, investors have to wait. While the revenue continues to grow at a pace that we've never seen before for any company ever, we also have the stock price relatively flat for the past 5 years. That is because of both it being overpriced, like many companies in 2021, but also they're sacrificing their short-term economics and profitability to get more growth. So investors in this company need to be patient, but the prize is likely huge. And building up both a massive banking and Fintech company in Latin America, as well as the biggest retailer.