Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $MELI 的判断变化
Mercado Libre 达到了一个重要里程碑，在最近一个季度营收超过 100 亿美元，同比增长 50%。管理层最近实施了一项新策略，降低了免费送货的门槛，为消费者增加了便利。
Mercado Libre reached an important milestone surpassing $10 billion in revenue representing 50% year-over-year growth in its most recently completed quarter. Management recently implemented a new strategy lowering the threshold for free shipping adding convenience to consumers.
所以当 Mercado Libre 开始这项策略时，我很乐观它会成功，因为我在 Amazon 身上看到过类似情况，而到目前为止它确实成功了，营收显著增长。
So when Mercado Libre started this strategy, I was optimistic that it would be successful because of what I've seen from Amazon and so far it has been successful with revenue increasing meaningfully.
话虽如此，这是否让 Mercado Libre 的股票成为一个买入机会？所以 Mercado Libre 季度营收超过 100 亿美元，同比增长 50%，过去十二个月营收为 350 亿美元，你可以看到公司历史上惊人的增长。
That being said, does this make Mercado Libre stock a buying opportunity? So Mercado Libre surpassed $10 billion in quarterly revenue which was up 50% trailing 12 month it reported $35 billion in revenue and you can see the phenomenal growth in the company's history.
这家公司仅仅十年前营收约为 10 亿美元，现在已超过 350 亿美元。电子商务只是其业务的一部分。它还运营金融服务和贷款业务，其贷款组合同比增长 75%，但管理团队表示他们保持信贷质量，违约率与历史平均水平一致。
This company just 10 years ago was generating around $1 billion in revenue and now it's up over 35 billion. E-commerce is just one part of its business profile. It also operates a financial services and lending segment where its loan portfolio increased by 75% year-over-year but the management team said they're maintaining credit quality and default rates are consistent with historical averages.
更低的送货门槛应该会继续带来更多客户，并且随着公司为消费者提供更多便利，每位买家的支出也会增加。但当然，每当公司实施激励计划、促销计划、折扣等以使购买更方便、更容易、更实惠时，我总是想看看盈利能力，它如何影响利润和利润率。
The lower shipping threshold should continue to bring more customers and spend per buyer increasing as the company makes it more convenient for consumers. But of course, anytime a company implements a incentive program, promotion program, discount, etc. to make purchasing more convenient, more accessible, more affordable, I always want to look at the profitability, how it's impacting profits and profit margins.
公司的运营盈利能力明显下降，大约下降了一半。其营业利润率在 2023 年约为 16%，而根据最新数据已降至 8.25%。
And there is a noticeable decline in the company's operating profitability, which has roughly fallen by half. Its operating profit margin was around 16% in 2023, and that's fallen to 8 and 1/4% as of the most recent update.
现在，随着公司网络密度增加，降低送货门槛对其盈利能力的影响应该会减弱。这是因为如果 Mercado Libre 已经在向某个社区送货，然后另一个客户在同一社区购买，那么每次送货的成本就会降低。
Now, as the company densifies its network, the impact to its profitability of the lower shipping threshold should diminish. That's because if Mercado Libre is already making a delivery to a neighborhood, and then another customer makes a purchase in that same neighborhood, the cost per delivery decreases.
随着公司进一步增加网络密度，这种好处会扩大，正如我在 Amazon 身上看到的，他们显著降低了服务客户的成本，其营业利润率接近 15%。
And that benefit expands as the company densifies the network further, as I've seen from Amazon, which has lowered their cost to serve customers meaningfully, and their operating profit margins are approaching 15%.
同样，Mercado Libre 的投资资本回报率在多年改善后也呈下降趋势。目前为 8.6%，也大约是 2025 年水平的一半。
Similarly, Mercado Libre's return on invested capital, after several years of improvement, has trended downward. At 8.6%, it's also about half where it was in 2025.
所以，这里的平衡需要持续监控。我相信管理层也在关注这一点。
So, the balance here is something that needs to be monitored continuously. And this is something I'm sure management is watching.
抵消因素是什么？我们获得了多少新客户，这项新政策带来了多少额外收入，相对于它在整体利润上花费了多少？我们继续这项政策是否值得？
The offset, right? How many new customers are we getting, and how much more revenue are we generating as a result of this new policy versus how much is it costing on the bottom line overall? Is it worth it for us to continue this policy?
根据管理团队目前所见，他们告诉投资者他们喜欢所看到的情况。他们喜欢这项策略的回报，并将继续这项纪律性的策略，降低送货门槛，通过提供更低总购买金额的免费送货来提供更多便利。
And according to the management team from what they've seen so far, they told investors that they like what they're seeing. They like the return on this strategy and they're going to continue this disciplined strategy of lowering shipping threshold and allowing more convenience by offering free shipping on a lower total purchase amount.
估值也接近多年来的最低水平。Mercado Libre 的远期市盈率为 34.6，接近过去几年你能买入这只股票的最低水平。
The valuation is also near its lowest levels in years. Mercado Libre is trading at a forward price to earnings of 34.6, which is near the lowest you've been able to buy this stock going back several years.
现在，Mercado Libre 在拉丁美洲经济中运营，该地区的增长速度超过美国经济。这是因为其发展程度不如美国，而当国家仍处于发展的早期阶段时，其增长率可能比美国等更发达的经济体更快。
Now, Mercado Libre is operating in a part of the world, the Latin American economy, which is growing faster than the United States economy. That's because it's not as far along in development and so when countries are still in the earlier stages of development, their growth rates can be faster than more developed economies like the United States.
所以，你有一个在增长行业运营的业务，因为它增加了更多便利，实体店无法与在线购物的便利竞争。所以，它在一个受益于顺风的行业中，在一个比发达国家增长更快的国家中，因此 Mercado Libre 的营收增长有强大的顺风。
So, you've got a business that's operating in an industry that's growing because it's adding more convenience and brick-and-mortar businesses can't compete with the convenience of online shopping. So, it's in an industry that's capturing a tailwind in a country that's growing faster than developed countries and so you've got a powerful tailwind for top-line growth for Mercado Libre.
我还更新了对Mercado Libre的贴现现金流估值。我上调了对该业务预期自由现金流量的估计，我的公允价值估计为每股2,253美元，而当前市场价格为1,966美元。该股看起来仍被低估。
I also updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Mercado Libre. I revised higher my estimates for how much free cash flow I expect this business will generate and my fair value estimate came to $2,253 per share compared to the current market price of $1,966. The stock still looks undervalued.