The Compound 对 $META 的判断变化

OpenAI is going to become the going to become bigger than Meta in 3 and a half years if you believe their projections. And they're going to do that while spending more than twice of Meta's OPEX.

Meta as well, but they're not doing anything. They're just they're just rolling in their filth.

you don't have a hyperscaler spending on Nvidia chips to serve itself. Except in the case of Meta,

To be clear, I was wrong back in 2024. And why? Cuz I was naive. I was like, the market's a sensible place. Microsoft and Google, Amazon, Meta wouldn't spend hundreds of billions of dollars for no goddamn reason.

It doesn't fix the fact that it's very clear that Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, their overall growth is slowing. Otherwise, they would have never done this. They are slowing down.

other than meta other so meta is a whole other basket case this is actually a point though okay all right but it is true that AWS and Azure and um Google cloud are seeing accelerating growth

Meta is not in that business. But that's the point I'm making. You'll notice that AI is not making meta grow massively. It's just the ones who get the money from anthropic and open AI.

Well, meadow meadows the Metabulls and I'm not one of them, but the Metabulls would argue they're not rent and compute. They think they want to prioritize it to improve reels.

Um, they could at any time do an about face and say, "Oh, yeah, by the way, now we're a data center. Um, and we're going to rent compute." And if they do that, I think you would agree with me that day at least, the stock goes up.

But their core business, which is serving ads, is in better shape than it's ever been. They had their first decline in users.

the users are declining though that will decline too again it's I understand what you're saying I'm saying for now it looks good

met has talked about spending 10 billion if they're spending 10 billion a year on anthropic the story came out today That's also really bad because Mark Zuckerberg changed the name of his company to Meta mere years ago and then just dumped that in 2023. Like this man does not care. He has complete control. He will stop doing something on a whim. That's a really bad situation.

I think Mark Zuckerberg is a scumbag. I think he's an piece of He is He cares. He does not give a rat about his customers. He has turned Facebook and Instagram into a hell hole. He has deliberately I've seen documents. I published them where he they Mark Zuckerberg requested 12% perpetual growth of all the numbers. They at one point for years were growing I think time spent on app not realizing that engagement was dropping because they were measuring the wrong thing. They have made that product like all of these companies worse to increase growth.

Same with Google, Meta. I think it was Google and Meta changed how ads work around how the first bid thing. I think that they basically have a way of producing more money out of it and raising the bid.

So Meta would say, "Well, here's Instagram. How much do you pay for it? Zero."

It's 12 billion and then maybe 17 billion. like 1% of Meta's market cap basically. But so what will this do? So Meta will enforce Meta will enforce the 2-hour daily limit on Instagram and Facebook for children as part of a record claim.

Meta was horribly wrong, of course.

People say one of these days Meta is going to throw in the towel. And say that capex projection we gave you last quarter, don't rely on that. It's actually going to be lower.

Uh Meta 16 times like where's the mania?

Amazon, Google, maybe Microsoft, definitely Meta are going to have to take out a bunch of debt. I think Meta and Amazon both guided lower than expected in Q3. So, we're already seeing some slowdown. How interesting. But the point is, they are going to have to spend more and more and more and more money and more. Even if they're buying the same amount of GPUs they plan to 6 months ago, they're going to have to spend more cuz they're more expensive now.