Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $MRVL 的判断变化

Marvell just delivered what I thought to be an excellent quarterly result. The results were so good in fact that the company revised upwards its outlook for the rest of this year and for 2028.

In fact, for the full fiscal year 2027, Marvell now expects revenue to grow approximately 45% to 12 billion. That was up from the previous $11.5 billion estimate. Furthermore, they increased their 2028 revenue outlook to approximately 18 billion and that was up from 16.5 billion just a few months ago.

So, despite those excellent numbers and revisions upward, Marvell stock price fell almost 10% following these announcements. Of course, I warned investors that Marvell stock was overvalued going into these results and barring some kind of spectacular result that investors were not already anticipating, there was more downside than upside.

But what about now? After the dip, is Marvell stock a buying opportunity?

So, in its most recently completed quarter, Marvell delivered a record-setting Q2 with $2.74 billion in revenue. That was up 37% year-over-year. And as you heard me say with the forecasts for the full year 2027 and the full year 2028, Marvell expects continued acceleration in revenue growth.

Right? So, not only is revenue growing at a very nice pace, 37% is excellent, but the company expects the rate of increase to continue increasing for the rest of this year and for the rest of 2028.

Marvell attributes this to continued strong demand across their data center portfolio where revenue growth accelerated. AI related bookings remain exceptionally robust and we expect our revenue growth to accelerate further through the remainder of this year. Again, given the strength we're revising our revenue outlook for 2027 and 2028 compared to just 3 months ago.

And they've been doing this for several months now and so many AI companies have been doing this for several quarters now where they give us these very big numbers and investors remain skeptical of these big numbers and they come back to us 3 months later and they deliver numbers that were better than expected and they revise the figures even higher.

So demand keeps increasing and accelerating, shocking investors and continuing this trend. There's no end in sight for when the AI boom will moderate or stop increasing at an increasing rate.

The estimates I'm seeing suggest that 2027 will be another significant growth year for artificial intelligence and the entire ecosystem and 2028 is when we don't have line of sight just yet as far as what the figures will look like.

So if there should be a slowdown, it's not likely to happen until 2028.

So not only is Marvell's revenue increasing and accelerating, but their profit margins are as well. They're forecasting gross profit margins of about 53% in the upcoming quarter and their margins have been increasing significantly in recent quarters.

Given the sales forecast and given the acceleration, I wouldn't be surprised if Marvell's profit margins continue to increase. In its 3 months that ended August 1st, 2026, the company reported the net sales increasing significantly from the same time last year, and their operating income increased as well, jumping to 460 million, up from 290 million in the same quarter last year.

This is even after the company significantly increased their spending on research and development. So, their profits are improving while the management is still investing in its future.

These are good signs for Marvell stock investors. And again, reiterating what I said in the beginning of the video, I thought Marvell delivered an excellent quarter. The only reason the stock price is down is because it was so expensive going into this quarterly update.

That created a lot of enthusiasm around Marvell stock, and investors hurried up and bought the stock. Despite that, the $1 trillion valuation is likely to take some time to take hold if the company actually ever hits that target.

The cash flow from operations improved to 605 million, up from 462 million in the same quarter last year.

The company is spending more on property and equipment, becoming more capital-intensive. This is historically an asset-light business model that primarily designs the products and has outsourcing of manufacturing. But, you can see here over the previous 3 months, their purchases of property and equipment more than doubled to 127 million from 48 million. And over the 6-month period so far in fiscal 2027, their CapEx has increased to 282 million, up from 166 million.

That still left the company significant cash to repurchase stock. They spent 200 million buying back stock in the most recently completed quarter, the same amount as they did in the same quarter last year.

However, for the first 6 months of the year, the 400 million in repurchases of common stock is less than the 540 million they spent last year, which makes sense to me considering that I felt that the stock has been overvalued for a few months now.

So, after this drop-off, Marvell is now selling at a forward price to earnings of 34.5, which seems like a reasonable price for this stock.

However, there are many better semiconductor companies to buy that are selling at much cheaper valuations. So, there are other companies I prefer over Marvell on a forward price to earnings basis looking at the valuation.

Similarly, when looking at my discounted cash flow model, the market price at $218 today after the 10% decline is still well above my fair value estimate of 181.

So, I last updated my ranking of Marvell on June 10th informing investors that it didn't look like a buying opportunity. Today, August 28th, after I evaluated the company's quarterly financial results, I will reiterate that I still don't see this as a buying opportunity.

Again, great performance, business is booming, revenues accelerating, profit margins are increasing. However, the market is already incorporating a lot of these positive prospects into the valuation.