Dividendology 对 $MSFT 的判断变化
有趣的是，我们可以看到微软排在第一位。在过去五年中，微软的盈利以高速增长，每股收益复合年增长率超过 18%。你会注意到，他们的交易价格远低于四年平均市盈率。
What's interesting is we can see Microsoft came in at number one. Now, Microsoft over the last five years has grown earnings at a high rate with a EPS CAGR of above 18%. And what you'll notice is they're trading quite a bit below their four-year average PE multiple.
如果我们在这里看微软的 Forecaster，有几件不同的事情值得指出。如果我们看过去五年的销售额，可以看到它大幅增长。与此同时，股价也攀升了。但你会注意到，如果你看去年，他们下跌了 3%，但股价一直非常波动，特别是从大约四月到目前。
股价从最高每股 541 美元一路下跌到 356，回升到 460，然后迅速跌回 352。在最近的财报之后，又达到约每股 506 美元的高点。这是很大的波动。
So, if we look at Microsoft here on Forecaster, there's a couple of different things worth pointing out. If we look at sales over the last five years, we can see it's grown substantially. And along with it, the share price has climbed higher. But what you will notice is if you look in the last year, they're down by 3%, but the share price has been incredibly choppy, particularly from around April to really around current day. The stock went from trading as high as $541 a share all the way down to 356, climbed back up to 460, and then quickly fell all the way back down to 352. And then after the recent earnings report, peaked at about $506 a share. That is a lot of volatility.
但我们必须记住，这些超级投资者的买入是在第二季度进行的。这意味着什么？这意味着这些投资者的买入是在这个区间内进行的。虽然我们不知道确切的买入价格，但很明显很多超级投资者在逢低买入微软。
But what we have to remember is these super investor purchases were made during Q2. So what does that mean? Well, it means these investor purchases were bought in this range right here. And so all we don't know exact purchase prices, it's clear a lot of super investors were buying the dip on Microsoft.
现在，如果我们看微软的基本面，你会看到营收和盈利等实际上并未受到影响。事实上，营收增长相当漂亮。他们仍然以高速增长营收。事实上，即使我们看每股收益、毛利率等，情况看起来仍然非常强劲。基本每股收益在过去几年中大幅增长。
Now, if we look at the fundamentals for Microsoft, you'll see things like revenue and earnings really haven't been impacted. In fact, the revenue growth is pretty beautiful. They're still growing revenues at a high rate. In fact, even if we look at earnings per share, gross profit ratios, things still look incredibly strong. Basic earnings per share has grown substantially in the last few years.
那么，问题是什么？明显的问题是资本支出的增加。这是大多数大型科技股目前都在经历的事情，因为它们正在竞争昂贵的 AI 竞赛。如果我们向下滚动到底部，我们可以看到资本支出的情况。它显著增加，特别是在过去几年。基本上翻了一番。
So, what's the issue? Well, the obvious issue is the increase in CapEx spending. And this is something that most big tech stocks are going through right now as they compete in the expensive AI race. If we scroll down here to the bottom, we can see what CapEx spending looks like. It's ramped up significantly, particularly in just the last couple of years. It's essentially doubled.
然而，很多人似乎忽略了，也许超级投资者没有忽略，因为这是最常被买入的股票，那就是从资本支出的角度来看，微软比大多数公司健康得多。我们怎么知道？首先，他们是少数几家没有积极发行债务的公司之一，尤其是超大规模股票。
However, what a lot of people seem to be missing, maybe not super investors as it is the most frequently bought stock, is the fact that Microsoft from a CapEx perspective is in a much healthier position than most companies. How do we know this? Well, for one, they're one of the few companies, particularly hyperscaler stocks, that aren't aggressively issuing debt right now.
然而，微软的情况并非如此。事实上，微软仍然自由现金流为正，并且预计即使在这次资本支出周期中也将继续保持这种状态。同样重要的是，微软已经有大量的合同需求来支持其增加的资本支出。这正是市场希望看到的。
他们的商业剩余履约义务增加了 84%，达到 6780 亿美元，创造了所有大型科技公司中最大的收入积压之一。这是尚未确认的收入。
However, that's not the case for Microsoft. In fact, Microsoft is still free cash flow positive, and they're projected to continue to stay that way, even through this CapEx cycle. And just as important, Microsoft already has substantial contracted demand supporting their increased CapEx spending. This is what the market wants to see. Their commercial remaining performance obligations increased 84% to $678 billion creating one of the largest backlogs of revenue in all big tech. This is revenue that has not yet been recognized.
这很好，但他们已经有大量积压订单一段时间了。那么，发生了什么变化？为什么我们看到他们的股价如此波动，特别是从 2025 年 4 月左右到现在？投资者之前对微软尽管有大量积压订单，但大部分积压订单与 OpenAI 相关，这基本上造成了客户集中风险。
但现在，微软的 AI 增长已经变得更加多元化。其全年云收入中近 90% 来自前沿模型公司（如 OpenAI）以外的客户。因此，他们基本上已经摆脱了这种客户集中风险。这对微软来说是一件大事。
Now, this is great, but they've had a massive backlog for a while now. So, what changed? Why did we see such choppiness in their share price particularly from around April of 2025 to now? Well, investors previously had an issue with the fact that the despite Microsoft had a massive backlog, most of that backlog was tied to OpenAI which essentially created customer concentration risk. But, now Microsoft's AI growth has become significantly more diversified. Nearly 90% of its full-year cloud revenue came from customers outside frontier model companies such as OpenAI. So, they've essentially alleviated themselves from this customer concentration risk. This is a big deal for Microsoft.
有趣的是，与此同时，如果我们跳到政治标签，我们可以看到在第二季度不仅仅是超级投资者在买入微软。与过去一年相比，第二季度国会买入量明显更多。
Now, what's interesting is along with this, if we jump over to the political tab, we can see it really wasn't just super investors buying Microsoft in Q2. It saw quite a bit more congressional buying in Q2 than it had really over the last year.
超级投资者绝对仍然喜欢微软、Meta 和 Visa 在这个价格水平。微软和Meta的交易价格仍远低于历史估值倍数。
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices still. Microsoft and Meta are still trading well below the historic valuation multiples.
但这些公司大多是历史上资本轻型企业，现在由于微软和Meta的资本支出而不那么明显，但这些公司能产生高投入资本回报率，并拥有惊人的毛利率。
But these are for the most part historically capital light businesses, not so much now with the CapEx spending from Microsoft and Meta, but companies that generate high return on invested capital and have incredible gross profit margins.