Joseph Carlson After Hours 对 $MSFT 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
在那之后，我们有微软。微软排名第八。这是一个104,000美元的仓位。其中50,000美元是收益，权重为7%。要让微软获得那10,000美元，我需要它从当前交易的490美元跌至每股400美元。
在最近一次财报后，微软上涨了约25%。它涨得很疯狂。在那之前，它处于每股400美元。所以，如果微软只是回吐上次财报上涨的收益，那么这将是获得那10,000美元的股票。我们可以假设未来5年每股收益增长率为温和的12.4%。
有了这个，我相信微软合适的每股收益倍数相当高，考虑到其护城河和公司的结构，我认为它应该以28倍交易。在这些假设下，以每股400美元买入，未来5年复合年增长率为16.8%，我相信这将明显跑赢市场。
After that, we have Microsoft. Microsoft is number eight. It's a $104,000 position. $50,000 of that being gains, and it's a 7% weighted position. For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the $490 that it currently trades at. After the last earnings report, Microsoft shot up around 25%. It went up like crazy. And before that, it was at $400 per share. So, if Microsoft simply gives up the gains of its last earnings report bump, then this will be the one that gets that $10,000. We can assume a modest 12.4% EPS growth rate over the next 5 years. With that, I believe that Microsoft's appropriate EPS multiple quite high given the moat and the
要让微软获得那10,000美元，我需要它从当前交易的490美元跌至每股400美元。现在，在那之后，我们有微软。微软排名第八。这是一个104,000美元的仓位。其中50,000美元是收益，权重为7%。
要让微软获得那10,000美元，我需要它从当前交易的490美元跌至每股400美元。在最近一次财报后，微软上涨了约25%。它涨得很疯狂。在那之前，它处于每股400美元。所以，如果微软只是回吐上次财报上涨的收益，那么这将是获得那10,000美元的股票。
我们可以假设未来5年每股收益增长率为温和的12.4%。有了这个，我相信微软合适的每股收益倍数相当高，考虑到其护城河和公司的结构，我认为它应该以28倍交易。在这些假设下，以每股400美元买入，未来5年复合年增长率为16.8%，我相信这将明显跑赢市场。
For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the $490 that it currently trades at. Now, after that, we have Microsoft. Microsoft is number eight. It's a $104,000 position. $50,000 of that being gains, and it's a 7% weighted position. For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the $490 that it currently trades at. After the last earnings report, Microsoft shot up around 25%. It went up like crazy. And before that, it was at $400 per share. So, if Microsoft simply gives up the gains of its last earnings report bump, then this will be the one that gets that $10,000. We can assume a modest 12.4% EPS growth rate over the next 5 years. With that, I believe that Microsoft's appropriate EPS multiple quite high given the moat and the structure of the company, I think it should trade at a 28. And with those assumptions, buying it at $400 per share gives us a compounded annual growth rate of 16.8% over the next 5 years, which I believe would soundly outperform the market.