Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $MSFT 的判断变化
我昨天看了微软的财报，绝对是一个强劲强劲的季度。
I uh I looked at um Microsoft's earnings yesterday and an absolute strong strong um quarter.
好的，微软营收 900 亿美元，同比增长 18%。嗯，那超出了预期。调整后每股收益 4.74 美元。这超出了 4.21 的预期。
All right, Microsoft revenue 90 billion up 18% year-over-year. Uh, that was a beat. Adjusted earnings per share $4.74. It's a beat over 421.
他们对Anthropic有一笔可观的投资，我之前不知道。我回到全屏，我之前不知道。我知道微软投资了OpenAI，但我不知道他们也投资了Anthropic。
Um, they have a nice size investment in Anthropic, which um, I wasn't I'll go back to full screen which I wasn't aware of. I didn't know Micros I knew Microsoft had invested in Open AI. I did not know they also invested in Anthropic.
Azure业务收入首次突破1000亿美元，同比增长40%。微软的Azure业务同比增长40%。这让我震惊。我继续被这些大型公司的可扩展性所震撼。像微软这样已经年收入900亿美元的大公司，怎么能有一个部门增长40%，并突破1000亿美元的年收入大关，太惊人了。
Azure business revenue crossed $100 billion dollar for the first time. Up 40% from the prior year. The Azure d the Azure business is up 40% year-over-year at Microsoft. It's astounding to me. I continue to be floored by the scalability of these these massive companies. How can a company so big as Microsoft who is already doing just 90 billion a year um grow have a division that grows 40% like that and crossing hundred billion dollar uh annual revenue mark amazing
智能云业务增长32%，微软云业务增长27%，Copilot有3000万付费席位，第一手采用数据已经确立了地位。好吧，不管这意味着什么。我想这意味着人们正在采用Copilot。好吧。
uh intelligent cloud business up 32% Microsoft cloud business up 27% and co-pilot $30 million paid co-pilot seat firsthand adoption numbers have put a stake in the ground. Okay, whatever that means. I guess this means that co-pilot people are adopting it. Fine.
2027年的资本支出指引为2500亿至2600亿美元。这令人震惊。
Uh capex 2027 guidance for capex is 250 to $260 billion. That is astounding.
现金流质量头条超过收入。我想在签署优质收益之前看到自由现金流和资本支出调整后的运营现金流。好的，这里的大事是他们的资本支出数字270亿。抱歉，在2027年他们将花费四分之一的万亿美元在资本支出上。
我的意思是，他们通常不会产生那么多现金流。所以，他们将不得不为此融资。那将会很有趣。我们会看到的。我们会看到他们的表现。
Uh cash flow quality headline beat revenue. Uh, I want to see free cash flow and capex adjusted operation cash flow before signing off quality earnings. Okay, the big thing here is their capex number 27 billion. Sorry, in 2027 they're going to spend a quarter trillion in capex. I mean, they don't make that much cash flow in general. So, they're going to have to finance that. Uh, That's going to be that's going to be interesting. We'll we'll see. We'll see how they perform.
他们继续碾压收益，这对他们来说很棒。这里的顶部蓝色数字是收入。绝对惊人。他们作为一家千亿美元公司收入翻了一番。他们现在的收入是2710亿到2810亿美元。嗯，这没有反映最近一个季度。
嗯，这是图表上七月份的数字。嗯，是的，它已经反映了。那数据很快。是的。所以，那是他们更新的数字。去年2810亿美元。太不可思议了。仅仅三年时间，他们就增加了1000亿美元的收入。那太疯狂了。
They continue to just crush earnings, which is great for them. Here is top blue number is revenue up here. Just absolute staggering. They have doubled revenue as a hundred billion dollar company. They're now 271 281 billion dollars of revenue. Um, this does not reflect the most recent Q. U, this is July's number on the chart. Uh, yeah, it does already. That data is fast. It does. So, that's their that's their updated number. $281 billion last year. It's incredible. In just what three years they've added a hundred billion in revenue. That's that's craziness.
不，这是去年的2800亿是去年的收入。他们今年完成的收入，2026年的收入是3810亿，增长18%。是的，我之前说的18%的同比增长是正确的。季度是900亿。他们公布的年度数字是3310亿。
那太疯狂了。让我们回到图表。3310亿。这意味着自从202[哼]他们从2000亿增长到现在。恭喜微软。太棒了。太棒了。
No, this is last year's 280 billion was topline last year. What they finished this year with Revenue for 2026 was 381 billion, up 18%. Yes, the 18% year-over-year comment I made earlier was correct. The quarter was 90 billion. The annual number that they put that they published is 331 billion. That is just insane. Let's go back to our charts. 331 billion. That means in just since 202 [snorts] they've grown from 200 billion dollars. It's just congratulations Microsoft. Amazing. Amazing.