Rich Habits 对 $MSFT 的判断变化
你看看微软、Meta 和亚马逊，它们正在进口数百亿美元的半导体设备、电信设备等。但微软刚刚公布了 900 亿美元的季度营收。其云业务年化营收刚刚达到 1000 亿美元。
You go look at Microsoft and Meta and Amazon. They're importing hundreds of billions of dollars of semiconductor equipment and telecom equipment and things of that nature. But Microsoft just posted $90 billion in quarterly revenue. Their cloud business just hit a hundred billion in annualized revenue.
现在，微软讲述了一个更令人安心的故事。营收达到 900 亿美元，增长 18%，超出预期近 5%。每股收益为 4.81 美元，远超 424 美元的共识预期。智能云板块增长 31.6%。
Azure 在加速，而非减速。微软云营收单季度突破 545 亿美元。这是唯一一家 AI 支出明显转化为 AI 营收的超大规模企业，与许多其他公司不同。
Now, Microsoft told a more reassuring story. Revenue hit 90 billion, up 18% and beating estimates by nearly 5%. Earnings came in at $4.81 per share, crushing the $424 consensus. And the intelligent cloud segment grew 31.6%. Azure is accelerating, not decelerating. And Microsoft cloud revenue crossed 54.5 billion in a single quarter. This is one hyperscaler where AI spending is clearly translating into AI revenue right now unlike so many others.
所以想想看，Meta、Alphabet、微软和亚马逊，仅 2026 年，它们的 AI 相关资本支出合计就可能接近 5000 亿美元。Meta 为 1300 亿至 1450 亿美元，Alphabet 为 1950 亿至 2050 亿美元，而微软和亚马逊本周尚未更新指引。
So if you think about it, between Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, we're looking at combined AI related capital expenditures approaching 500 billion in 2026 alone. Meta at 130 to 145 billion, Alphabet at 195 to 205 billion, and Microsoft and Amazon have not yet updated their guidance this week.
微软正在证明这一论点。营收增长快于成本，AI 明显在吸引客户使用 Azure。微软目前股价在 420 到 430 美元。Wall Street favorites 的目标价是 522 美元，对吧？
所以华尔街喜欢微软，但你再看看其他一些支出大户，他们就像：“是啊，我们不喜欢那只股票，跌了 10%。”
Microsoft is proving the thesis. Revenue is growing faster than costs and AI is clearly pulling customers onto Azour. Uh Microsoft $420, $430 a share right now. Wall Street favorites has a price target of $522, right? So Wall Street likes Microsoft, but then you go look at some of these other spenders and they're like, "Yeah, we don't like that stock go down 10%."
我持有大量苹果股票。我持有大量微软股票。我还会持有亚马逊、特斯拉、Alphabet。我认为这些都很好。我不会卖出任何这些股票。我会买入更多。我持有大量微软股票。
I've got a ton of Apple. I got a ton of Microsoft. I'm going to got, you know, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet. I think it's all great. I'm not selling any of this stuff. I'm buying more. I got a ton of Microsoft.