The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $MSFT 的判断变化
嗯，我们收到了一个请求，要求接下来做微软。那我们做这个怎么样？嗯，我想上次我们也谈了一点微软。就在我们报道MX7的时候，对我来说，它是七巨头中唯一一家我觉得自己没有强烈观点的公司。
比如，如果我看亚马逊，我有相当强烈的观点；如果我看谷歌或Alphabet，我有强烈的观点；但微软的情况并非如此。
Well, we got a request to do Microsoft next. So, how about we do that? Um I think even last time we talked a bit about Microsoft. Uh just when we cover the MX7 to me it's like the one Mac 7 company where I feel like I I just don't have a strong opinion like it probably if I would look at Amazon I have a pretty strong opinion if I look at you know Google or Alphabet I have a strong opinion not so much the case for Microsoft
嗯，我不认为它会消失，你知道，如果我们看10年的时间跨度，我认为这是相当合理的。但我对你的观点很感兴趣，因为我觉得你昨天刚在社区做了一次演讲，你知道，有一张幻灯片我觉得挺有意思的。
嗯，让我们看看能不能调出来。这张。所以，也许你可以带我们看看你在这里发现了什么，以及这如何改变你对微软10年后的看法。
um I don't see it go away and you know if we look at 10ear time horizon um I think that's that's pretty fair but I would be interested what's your opinion because I think you gave let's get it up here I think you just yesterday gave a talk on the community um you know one slide that I found pretty interesting. Um, let's see if we can pull it up. This one. So, maybe you can just walk us through what you found here and how that changes your view on Microsoft in 10 years time.
Meta、微软、Alphabet、英伟达、甲骨文、亚马逊这类公司，它们的资产负债表外负债有3万亿美元，尚未出现在这些公司的财务报表上。
Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Oracle, Amazon these types of companies u there's $3 trillion uh in offbalance sheet liabilities that have not yet shown up uh on the financial statements of these companies.
所以，他们正在做出这些巨额承诺，而微软的情况不像Alphabet那么严重，但他们今年仍将进行约1750亿美元的资本支出。
So, they're making these massive massive commitments and and Microsoft is not quite um as bad, let's say, as as Alphabet. Um but they're still doing about $175 billion in capex this year.
实际上，这变成了一个关于根本问题的讨论：你认为这笔资本的回报会是多少？显然，这些都是市值数万亿美元的公司，但如果你回到两年前，你肯定会说这些是行业巨头，基本上不可战胜，拥有堡垒般的资产负债表，当然它们会存在并强大几十年。
我并不是在反对这一点。但同时，他们下注的规模之大。
And really, it becomes a conversation about, you know, fundamentally, what do you think the return on this capital is going to be? Uh, and so these are obviously multi-t trillion dollar companies, but if you went back two years ago, you would have for sure said these are titans of industry that are basically invincible and have fortress balance sheets and of course they will be uh around and very strong for uh decades and decades and decades. And I'm not arguing uh against that. But at the same time, the magnitude of the bets that they're making.
如果对AI计算能力的需求基本上低于他们的预期，而他们预期AI计算需求将呈指数级增长，那么这些合同承诺可能会拖累他们几十年，我们可能会回头说，这基本上就是这些公司自我毁灭的方式。
Um, if a if demand for AI computing power uh basically falls short of what of what they're projecting and they're projecting, you know, exponential increases in demand for for AI compute. Um, these contractual commitments uh could weigh them down for decades and we may look back and say that, you know, this is basically how these companies destroyed themselves.
我声明一下，我认为这种情况的概率是5%。我认为这远非我的基准情形。但重点是，这些公司正在下注的规模是他们以前从未有过的，其后果尚未确定。
Um I for the record I put like let's say there's a 5% probability of that. I think that's uh not anywhere close to what I would say is my is my base case. But the point being uh these companies are are making um uh bets at at a size uh that really they never have before. Um and you know the consequences of that are are uh yet to be determined.
我可能对微软更乐观一些。我不像了解Alphabet那样了解微软的业务，但我同意聊天中的观点，它可能是S级或A级。
Um, I'm probably more optimistic uh with Microsoft. Um, you know, I don't like I don't know the business as well as I know Alphabet for example, but I think I agree with the chat. It's probably it's probably S to A tier.
微软Azure，我认为它将继续从AI计算需求中受益匪浅。把它放在任何低于这个级别的地方都有点可笑，因为正如我所说，存在合理的担忧，可能更多是从今天的估值角度来看，当你以当前的市盈率买入时，未来所有这些资本支出将如何影响收益，最终会波及损益表。
Um, you know, Microsoft Azure, I think that's going to continue to to benefit uh very very well from uh demand for for AI compute. >> I yeah it would be sort of comical to to put it anywhere below that because uh like I said there are legitimate concerns probably more from the valuation perspective today of um when you're buying in at the current price to earnings um how are earnings going to be impacted by all this capex in the future that eventually is going to ripple across the income statement.
对吧？如果你借更多债来为数据中心融资，这不会影响往绩收益，但你会看到未来收益的利息支出更高，这会降低你的利润率等等。
Right? If you you take on more debt to finance data centers um that doesn't affect trailing earnings, but you're going to see higher interest payments on uh you know future earnings and that's going to reduce your margins and these kind of things.
所以我认为关于今天估值的吸引力存在合理的问题。但考虑到微软的多元化和根深蒂固，在10年的视野内，我很难说它不是S级。
Um so I think there's legitimate questions around uh the attractiveness of the valuation today. Um, but just given how diversified and entrenched Microsoft is, uh, on a 10-year horizon, it would be very hard for me to argue that they're they're not S tier.
我认为这非常不确定。我们在这里看到，比如折旧设为7年，利润就上升了。利润会下降多少非常不确定，基本上你可以计算部分，如果你只看折旧计划，但加上所有的表外债务，这是他们下的一个巨大赌注，就像，好吧，我们认为它会得到回报吗？我不太确定。
Um, I think it's just very uncertain. I mean basically we see it here like make depreciation 7 years and the profits pop up. it's so uncertain like how much profits will go down and I mean basically you can calculate parts of it right if you just look at the depreciation schedule but then with the all of the um offbalance sheet debt it's just a huge bet that they're making where it's just like okay do we think it will pay off I'm not quite sure
正如我们上周讨论的，我认为这些公司中的大多数，这是好事，都是高质量且几乎垄断的，如果投资没有回报，你烧了很多现金，但你仍然是你所在领域的头号玩家，你会在未来2到3年内赚回这些现金。
um as we discussed last week I think most of these companies and that's a good thing are such high quality and almost monopolies in what they do primarily that if it doesn't pay off you have burned a lot of cash but you still are the number one in what you do and you will earn that cash back over the next 2 or 3 years.
所以这就是为什么我说10年时间范围。我认为这些公司中任何一家都不会有重大问题，因为如果投资不成功，它们不会……我只想说，不会有其他公司出现。
So that's why I'm saying 10 year time horizon. I don't think any of these companies will have major problems because again if it doesn't work out it's not like they will get well I just want to say it doesn't like there will be any other company coming up.
我们可以谈谈Parent，这是我们下周三在节目中报道的一家公司。敬请期待，因为我觉得像微软这样的公司最终可能会在那里遇到一些问题。
We could talk about Parent here which is a company we cover on the show uh next Wednesday. So stay tuned for that because I feel like especially a comp company like Microsoft might get into some problems there eventually.
但我同意。我认为长期是S级，短期来看，今天的价值我会给低一些。我也不认为它是S级。我认为它一点也不贵。但我可能会给A级。
Um, but I agree. I think S tier longterm, keep it short. Value today, I would put it lower. Um, I don't think it's also S tier. I think it's not expensive at all. Um, but I would probably just go a tier.
我认为我对10年前景更乐观，因为到那时，我非常确定公司仍然存在，而且可能比今天更好。时间越短，我越觉得不确定那个赌注是否会自然得到回报。
Um, I think if I I'm more bullish on the 10-year outlook because I think at that point, I'm very sure the company still exists and it's likely better than today. Um, the more short-term you go, the more I feel like I don't know if that bet will pay off naturally.
甚至B级。好吧，我觉得那没问题。我认为……只是因为，我的意思是，它基本上以接近市场市盈率的价格交易，但他们资本支出占收入的比例远高于标普500中位数公司。所以从根本上说，估值存在更多不确定性，因为我们不知道资本回报会是多少。
>> even B. Okay, I think that's fine. I think >> just because of the just because of I mean I think it's like you know basically trading near the the market multiple um but the percentage of capex as you know share of revenue that they're spending is dramatically more than the median S&P 500 company. So just fundamentally there's a lot more uncertainty about the valuation because we don't like I said we don't know what the returns on capital are going to be.
所以，我认为B级甚至可能是宽大的，但是……我认为B级是公平的，正如我们在这里看到的。我只是相信聊天。如果他们告诉我25倍远期市盈率，我就接受这是事实。但我认为我们大致在这个水平交易。
如果你为微软支付25倍远期收益，我认为那是公平的。
So, um I think B might even be charitable, but uh >> I think B is fair as we see here. I mean, I'm just trusting the chat right now. If they tell me 25 times forward PE, I just accept the fact that that's true. Um but I think that's about where we're trading. And I think if you pay 25 times forward earnings for for Microsoft, um I think that's fair.
抱歉，但那是明年的盈利，对吧？所以我们谈论的是这些表外负债、资本支出承诺、他们正在筹集的债务的利息，这些会影响盈利，不是明年，而是接下来的一年又一年又一年。所以，如果你真的只盯着基于明年盈利的估值，我认为这有点陷阱，因为如果你真的想彻底分析，你需要模拟预期的折旧和利息成本，而这些将大幅增长。
>> sorry but but that's next year's earnings, right? So like you know we're talking about the the these off balance sheet obligations, the capex commitments, the interest on the debt that they're raising that's going to affect earnings not so much next year but the following year and the following year and the following year. So, I would say it's a little bit of a trap if you're really fixated on just what the valuation is based on next year's earnings because you really wanted to be thorough about it. You would need to model out uh you know the expected uh depreciation and interest costs um which are going to grow significantly.
好的，Salesforce。嗯，我觉得我们可以快速讨论，因为我有点像看待其他SaaS公司那样看待Salesforce，就像我看待微软和Max 7一样。不是因为质量同样高，只是因为它不太让我兴奋。
All right, Salesforce. Um, I think we can do it quick because I kind of look at Salesforce similarly, um, compared to the other SAS companies as I do to Microsoft when I look at the Max 7. Um, not because quality is as high, just because I feel like it doesn't excite me that much.
我知道它比微软和Constellation便宜，但今天的价值不仅仅意味着我们只看价格。你仍然需要有质量，这在三到四年后也很重要。我认为它的质量低于其他公司，以至于我不认为它在未来三年会比微软或Constellation更有优势。
I know it's cheaper than Microsoft and Constellation but value today does not only mean we only look at the price. you still have to have the quality and that matters also in 3 to four years time. I think the quality is lower than than these other companies to the extent where I wouldn't see it you know better positioned even for the next 3 years um than Microsoft or or consolation.
还有很多其他公司，甚至我不知道微软，如果AI让你有机会以比过去便宜得多的方式制造产品，我可以看到很多更强大的公司扩展到Salesforce目前主导的领域。
there's so many other companies even I don't know Microsoft you know if AI gives you the opportunity to make products way cheaper than it used to I could see so many stronger companies um sort of expand into fields that Salesforce is now dominating
所以，我们今天要做的是，我们准备了一个分级列表。实际上我们有两个分级列表。所以，首先，我们将讨论最大的 7 家公司，正如你在这里看到的。此外，我们还有一些额外的。所以，我们将讨论最大的 7 家，比如 Meta、Google、Microsoft 这些公司。
So, what we'll do today, um, we have a tier list prepared. We actually have two tier lists. So, for one, we will talk about um the max 7 companies as you can see here. Plus, we have some extras. So, we will talk about the Max 7s like you know, Meta, Google, Microsoft, those those sorts of companies.
而且总的来说，我认为 Sean，当我们报道 Microsoft 时，你有很多这样的循环交易，这也是一家我们可能会列出的公司，也许我们应该接下来做那个。我认为当我们在那一集中做研究时，我们只是坐在那里试图弄清楚在这些循环交易中资金到底流向哪里，这非常困难。
and just generally you have a lot of these circular deals I think Sean when we covered Microsoft um which is also a company that we will list maybe we should do that one next um I think when we did the research in the episode, we were just sitting there trying to figure out where money is actually going in all of these circular deals and it was incredibly difficult.
所以，也许我接下来从那家公司开始，Microsoft。我得说，我很久以前就推荐过它。我认为之后股价上涨得相当不错。我们没有拥有它。我们没有为投资组合购买它。
Um, so maybe I'd start with that company next, Microsoft. Um, I got to say I pitched it a while ago. Um, I think the stock went up quite nicely afterwards, too. Um, we didn't own it. We we didn't buy it for the um, for the portfolio.
我认为如果我们完全不带偏见，有充分的理由也把它放在 S 级。就我个人而言，这只是我的直觉，所以请给我一个更中立的观点，各位。我认为我会把它放在 B 和 C 级之间。我认为这在某种程度上是不公平的，因为它是一家多元化的公司。
它也有很多我们谈到的优势。但你有一个软件套件，基本上“足够好”在过去 10 年或 20 年里一直是它的口号。基本上，他们提供的很多工具都是捆绑销售的，这之所以有效，是因为对于企业客户来说，他们可以使用 Teams 而不是 Slack，因为这已经足够好了。
在人工智能时代，软件会变得越来越好，而且更容易构建。Microsoft 拥有巨大的分销优势，这是人工智能中最重要的因素之一，然而，如果我把他们与 Amazon 和 Google 相比，我就是不认为他们处于同一水平，如果你问我 30 年后我更愿意拥有哪家公司。
I think there's a good case to make if we are just completely unbiased. Um, to also put it in the S tier. Personally, and it's just my gut feeling, so please um, give me a more neutral view, guys. I think I would put it between B and C tier. And I think that's unfair to some extent because it's a diversified company. It also has a lot of the advantages that we talk about. But you have a software suite where basically good enough has been you know the mantra for the last 10 10 years or 20 years. Basically a lot of the tools that they offer they sell in bundles and it works because for enterprise customers they can just use teams over Slack because that's good enough. Um in times of AI where software will become better and better and it's way easier to build it. um Microsoft has this huge distribution advantage which is one of the most important things in AI and yet if I compare them to to Amazon and Google I just don't see them at the same level if you ask me 30 years out which company would I rather own.
所以，是的，我想我会把它放在 B 级，也许是这两者的混合，你们告诉我它应该放在哪里。哦，你们告诉我它是 S 级，因为它是你见过的最好的公司。
Um so yeah I think I'll put it let's say Btier maybe maybe a mix of those two and you guys tell me where where it should go. Oh you guys tell me it's ST because it's the best company you ever see you've ever seen.
>> 从我的角度来看，我认为你说得完全正确，Daniel。我的意思是，对我来说，我从未拥有过这家公司的原因，尽管它显然是一个巨大的复利机器，是因为我真的不怎么使用它的任何产品，就像你提到的 Teams。
我从不使用，我使用 Zoom 或 Google Meets。但是，你知道，我确实认为你关于分销的观点非常重要。而且我不知道，也许他们会想办法改进他们的一些产品，让它们不仅仅是足够好，而是实际上比所有其他产品好得多。
而且如果他们拥有这种分销优势，你知道，显然他们将能够比一些小型初创公司更快地让更多用户看到那个产品。但是，是的，我认为 B 或 C 对我来说也完全合理。我不认为它与 Alphabet 或 Google 或抱歉 Amazon 处于同一水平。
>> I mean from my standpoint I think you're you're completely correct there Daniel. I mean, um, for me, the reason that I've never owned the business, even though obviously it's been this massive compounder, is I just don't really use like any of its products, you know, like you mentioned Teams there. We I I never use I use Zoom or I use Google Meets. Um, but, you know, I I do think that your point there on the distribution, that's really important. And I don't know, maybe they'll figure out how to improve some of their products and get them, you know, not just being good enough, but actually like much much better than everything else. And if because they have that distribution advantage, you know, obviously they're going to be able to get that product in front of more eyes a lot quicker than, you know, some small startup's going to be able to. Um, but yeah, I I I uh I think B or C makes complete sense to me as well. I that that that's I don't think it's at the same it's quite at the same level as either uh Alphabet or Google or sorry uh Amazon.
>> 天哪，我不知道。是的，对我来说，Microsoft 可能是最接近我两个坚定选择之一的，Microsoft 和 Nvidia 是最接近的。[笑声] 我认为他们会做得很好。我不认为他们会受到大规模颠覆。
但是，我不认为他们具有与 Google 和 Amazon 相同的持久性和上行潜力。所以，是的，我对 Microsoft 目前的状况感到满意。
>> God, I don't know. Yeah, Microsoft to me is the one that probably Microsoft and Nvidia are the closest to being in my two hard piles. [laughter] Like I I think it I think they'll do well. Like I don't see I don't see them getting massively disrupted. Um but I I I don't see the same durability um and and upside potential as as Google and Amazon. So yeah, I think I'm I'm happy with with Microsoft where it is.
所以对我来说，在 30 年的时间框架内，我的意思是，我得看看我们的列表，各位，我们能把它放在 SpaceX 下面吗？我认为那太苛刻了，但否则我们几乎把它放在 Microsoft 和 Meta 之上，我们是不是犯了一个错误？
so for me and video 30-year time frame I mean I got to look at our list here guys can we put it below SpaceX I think that's just harsh but otherwise we put it almost above Microsoft and Meta did we make a mistake here