Joseph Carlson 对 $NKE 的判断变化
耐克在峰值时交易价格约为每股 180 美元，自那以后一直在下跌。
Nike traded up to around $180 per share on its peak and ever since then it's been tumbling down this mountain.
下一个扭转操作是耐克。现在，这个像 Adobe 一样下跌了很多，因为耐克的收入多年来一直在攀升，现在却在下降。收入实际上在过去几年中下降了。公司的息税前利润在下降，净利润在下降，自由现金流在下降。
The next turnaround play we get to is Nike. Now, this one like Adobe's down big for Nike's revenue was climbing for years and then now it's decreasing. The revenue's actually declined over the past couple of years. The EBIT of the company's in a decline, the net income of the company's in a decline, the free cash flow of the company's in a decline.
现在，你可能会看这家公司说：“嗯，耐克不是一只好股票，因为数字在下降。它处于衰退中，而且它的估值仍然相对充分。它的交易价格是 24 倍远期市盈率，3.6% 的自由现金流收益率。”
Now, you may look at this company and say, "Well, Nike's not a great stock because the numbers are going down. It's in decline and it still trades at a relatively full valuation. It's trading at a 24 forward PE ratio, a 3.6% free cash flow yield."
但我认为这是看待耐克的错误方式。耐克今天看起来昂贵的主要原因是这些数字的下降是暂时的，而且实际上是耐克管理层自己造成的。
But, I believe that's the wrong way to look at Nike. The big reason that Nike looks expensive today is because these declines in these numbers are temporary and they're actually self-induced by Nike's management.
耐克目前正在经历其执行结构、业务运营方式的巨大变革。他们正在清理旧库存。他们不再只是数字化销售所有东西。他们正在回归正常的物流和零售商。他们实际上在大量清理库存，很多旧产品，他们大幅打折以将其从货架和账本上清除。
Nike right now is going through a huge change in their execution structure, the way that they run their business. They're getting rid of old inventory. They're not selling everything just digitally. They're going back to their normal logistics and retailers. They're actually offloading a lot of inventory, a lot of old product that they're substantially discounting to get them off of the shelves and off of their books.
投资者的问题是品牌能否持续。如果你相信耐克仍然拥有一个可以收取溢价的坚实品牌，并且利润率最终会在这些变化后回升，那么耐克今天可能被严重低估，是一个好的扭转操作。
The question for investors is if the brand will sustain. If you believe Nike still has a solid brand that can charge a premium and margins will eventually tick back up after these changes, then Nike is likely deeply undervalued today and a good turnaround play.