Mark Roussin, CPA 对 $NVDA 的判断变化

It comes down to one company, one company that will impact entire sectors, and that company happens to be Nvidia. This Wednesday, Nvidia will report earnings after the bell, and I know many of you already understand that Nvidia is the largest company, but does everyone understand just how important of a report this could be?

Because Nvidia isn't simply reporting on Nvidia anymore. Nvidia itself has pulled back from recent highs. So today, we're going to break down exactly what Wall Street expects from Nvidia, what I'm watching beyond just revenue and EPS, a look at the guidance, which may very well be the most important item from that earnings report, and whether Nvidia is actually cheap at today's valuations, how to play earnings if you want to get involved before the report, and then we're going to look at the companies that could experience some of the biggest moves after the company reports.

Because Wednesday night isn't just Nvidia earnings, it's an earnings report on the entire AI trade. And for me, I do own Nvidia shares. It is a top 10 holding inside of my portfolio.

Nvidia is currently worth roughly $5 trillion. Again, it is the largest company in the S&P 500. And over the past 12 months, shares of Nvidia are up about 20%.

One company's earnings report can now materially affect the major indices simply because of how enormous its weighting is.

However, bringing it back to Nvidia, shares of the AI chip giant have held up rather well during that same time span, with shares of Nvidia up 5%. But shares have been pulling back into earnings, down 8%, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's lowering expectations is how I see it.

And that's why Nvidia earnings matter. If Nvidia tells us demand remains extremely strong, capacity remains constrained, customers continue ordering aggressively, and visibility extends deep into 2027, that provides another piece of evidence that this AI investment cycle remains intact and still in the early to mid innings.

And I think that's the story that CEO Jensen Huang is going to tell when the company reports on Wednesday evening. However, if Nvidia begins talking about customers delaying orders or weakening demand, excess capacity, or slowing deployments, well, then we have a very different conversation.

Well, Wall Street, as you can see on your screen here, currently expects approximately revenue of $92 billion. That would be roughly 97% growth year-over-year. Adjusted EPS is expected to come in around $2.09. That's roughly 99% growth year-over-year. And that is center revenues alone is expected to come in at 85.3 billion, representing growth of approximately 100%.

So, revenues, earnings per share, data center revenue, all pretty much doubling year-over-year. Stop and think about that. We're talking about a $5 trillion company potentially growing quarterly revenue and all of that by 100%. That is incredible.

But those numbers aren't the real bar. Here's where Nvidia earnings get interesting. Wall Street already expects Nvidia to beat expectations. That's no secret. Nvidia has beaten revenue estimates in 19 of the past 20 quarters and EPS expectations they've beat in 18 of the past 20 quarters.

So simply reporting 92.1 billion in revenue and $2.09 in EPS isn't necessarily going to make investors happy. In fact, they'll probably be pretty upset. The market wants beat, raise, and strong guidance and confidence that demand remains strong.

That's the unofficial Nvidia earnings standard because if the company comes in and reports $2.10, sure it beats EPS by 1 cent and then revenues of 92.3 billion with no change to forward guidance, expect the stock and the entire sector in fact to fall and potentially fall pretty hard.

That would be a huge jolt that could spark a market-wide sell-off. The first is going to be data center growth. This is the heartbeat of the AI thesis. If data centers continue to dramatically outperform, that's bullish not only for Nvidia, but the entire AI infrastructure ecosystem.

The second item is going to be gross margins. This one isn't getting enough attention in my opinion. Nvidia previously guided towards approximately 75% non-GAAP gross margins for the quarter. That's an incredible margin number. But investors need to watch whether increasing system complexities and component costs, including memory, begin putting pressure on profitability. Analysts have recently flagged modest gross margin pressures as something to watch. If revenues beat, but margins disappoint, the market could focus on margins.

The third item is going to be Q3 guidance and this might be the most important of the entire report. Wall Street currently expects roughly 104 billion for the next quarter, which would be in Q3. If Jensen guides meaningfully above that, that's potentially very bullish. If guidance comes in at 104 or below, you could see the stock sell off even if the Q2 numbers were fantastic because stocks don't trade on what happened yesterday. They trade on what investors think is going to happen tomorrow.

So, no doubt guidance is key, and a strong guidance number is what can ultimately jolt this stock price higher, and not just this stock price, an entire AI sector.

The fourth item that we're paying close attention to is going to be Vera Rubin. This is probably the biggest product discussion I'm watching. Nvidia is transitioning towards its next-gen Vera Rubin platform, and investors want confirmation. Is the rollout on schedule and is customer demand remaining strong? Nvidia recently announced a massive partnership with SK Group involving Vera Rubin infrastructure and next-gen HBM memory with its first planned AI factory coming online in 2027. Rubin matters because Nvidia has to continue giving customers a reason to upgrade. Blackwell, that was incredible, but Nvidia can't stop there. The road map is the moat.

So, the fifth item that I'm paying close attention to is going to be something that could be very new to the company, and that would be China. Nvidia's ability to sell advanced AI products into China has been one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the company, and the current guidance that we have seen thus far has implied nothing coming from China. The company gets zero in data center revenue from China. Imagine if those floodgates open to a degree, meaning older model chips, and recent reports suggest Chinese customers have begun receiving approvals for H200 purchases, which could potentially reopen an important revenue opportunity for the company. I expect analysts to really push Jensen during the Q&A session. Well, will we get it from them? Well, I don't know. We haven't in the past, but if we do get something, that's another angle that could jolt the stock and the entire sector even higher.

So, now let's take a look at part three, which is going to center around valuation, because this is where the Nvidia conversation really becomes interesting. We're talking about a company doubling their revenue, doubling in earnings, strong margins over 70% huge amounts of free cash flow. Look at this chart here. The start of the pandemic, this company was generating 4.6 billion in free cash flow. That's a lot of cash. In the past 12 months alone, they've generated nearly $120 billion, and that number is only going higher when they report. Insane numbers. Yet, when you look at valuation, it's just absurd. Nvidia trades at a next 12 months earnings multiple of 20 times. And if you go out 18 months from now, we're talking about a 16x multiple. That is far below a market multiple. It's lower than many companies providing single-digit earnings growth, which is wild. Now, compare that against Nvidia's growth, we're talking about a company that's expected to double their quarterly revenue, double their earnings, with earnings still expected to grow 50% all of next year, even. If looking at those figures and we just take the conservative approach and just assume 50% growth, we are still talking about a company with a PEG ratio of less than 0.5. I love stocks with PEGs below one, but we're talking about below 0.5.

So, with that, why is Nvidia so difficult to value for investors? Well, for me, I think the stock is incredibly cheap. It's not that difficult. And investors have a hard time though wrapping their head around the fact that the company continues to put up these growth figures. Growth for this year and the year prior, we're going up against insane comps, and they blew away those expectations. But, if earnings growth does in fact slow, and slow dramatically, well, that's when the multiple can expand very quickly. And, I guess that is the risk that some investors are looking at.

Now, we're going to move on and let you know the reason I chose today's title. Nvidia isn't operating in isolation. It's essentially sitting in the middle of the entire AI supply chain. Taiwan Semi, well, they manufacture advanced chips for the likes of Nvidia, might I add. And then Nvidia and AMD, well, they provide compute.

Nvidia sits right in the middle of all of that. So, when Jensen talks, Wall Street listens for clues about all of it. Because if, and that's a big if, for some reason the demand is faltering, all of these companies are likely coming down. The entire demand story starts with Nvidia.

If Nvidia says AI accelerator demand remains enormous, hyperscalers continue increasing their spending, well, customers can't get enough compute, that's evidence that AMD is competing inside an enormous and expanding market.

So, strong Nvidia demand can actually reinforce my AMD thesis. The danger would be if Jensen starts talking about weakening accelerator demand because then investors aren't debating market share anymore. They're debating whether the entire market is slowing.

Nvidia needs someone to manufacture these advanced chips. Taiwan Semi is one of Nvidia's most critical manufacturing partners. If Nvidia raises expectations for Blackwell and Rubin, that potentially means more advanced wafers, more advanced packaging, more capacity requirements, more demand for Taiwan Semi.

So, strong Nvidia guidance is another data point supporting Taiwan Semi's leading-edge manufacturing outlook.

These companies are more nuanced because Broadcom and Marvell benefit from AI spending, but it also represents one of Nvidia's biggest long-term threats. Why? Custom silicon. Google, Meta, OpenAI, other hyperscalers, these companies increasingly want AI accelerators designed specifically for their own workloads. Broadcom and Marvell help enable those chips. So, if Nvidia says overall AI infrastructure spending continues exploding, that's great for both Broadcom and Marvell. But if Jensen starts discussing competitive pressures from custom accelerators, that's another important positive signal for both of these companies.

This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing. Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.

If Nvidia continues talking about larger AI factories, rack-scale systems, and enormous clusters, that's bullish for the networking demand. So, Nvidia's commentary could effectively set the tone for both reports.

Nvidia's recent expanded relationship with SK Hynix specifically includes long-term collaboration around next-gen HBM. If Rubin demand remains exceptionally strong, HBM demand should

That includes the likes of AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and several others. And before we jump any further, do me a huge favor, smash that like button down below, and let me know in the comment section, do you already own Nvidia? Are you a shareholder or not?

And with that being said, let's jump right into it with part number one with where things stand currently. Before looking at earnings expectations, we need some context. Think about how absurd that number is.

So, what was once the leaders is now the laggards. I don't think the market is suddenly believing that AI is going away. I think investors are asking a much more important question. How much of this AI boom is already priced in to many of these stock prices? Because there's a huge difference between saying AI is going to change the world and saying AI stocks are attractive investments at today's prices. Those are not the same statement.

Now let's move to the $500 billion question. We've now reached the point where hyperscalers are spending extraordinary amounts of money building AI infrastructure. Whether you're talking about Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Oracle, AI labs, sovereign governments, everyone wants compute. But Wall Street is increasingly asking, "Well, where is the return in all of this spending?"

Is it possible? Sure, but that's not the angle I'm taking. Now let's move to the next part of this video and look at what Wall Street expects. What are the expectations heading into the numbers when Nvidia reports at the closing bell on Wednesday?

And for those of you that have taken my Investing Accelerator program, which is my 12-week self-paced program, you can find a link to that down in the description below, but those that have taken it have heard me say a number of times, when it comes to stocks reporting, it's less about what you've done for me, meaning the most recent quarterly report, and more about what you're going to do for me, meaning the forward guidance.

Think about our AI investment stack from last weekend's Investors Weekly Playbook video that I put out on Sunday. And if you missed that, go check it out. I'll link it down in the description below, and you'll see it up here up top. But, here's a look at the AI investor stack I introduced in that very video.

Broadcom, Marvell, and Credo, they provide networking and custom silicon. If you want to throw in a company like Micron, they offer memory, and that supply chain is critical to all of this. Cloud companies deploy infrastructure, data centers house it, power companies support it.

So, when Jensen talks, Wall Street listens for clues about all of it. But, what are some of the other companies to have on your watch list that will be impacted by these earnings on Wednesday night?

That's much worse for AMD. And we already heard from them. And they reported strong earnings and strong guidance, setting up the stage for strong demand.

That's why I'll be listening closely to Jensen's discussion around networking.

So, with that, there's really two scenarios that could take place after the report on Wednesday night. Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply. If we get that combination, I think you could see a significant relief rally across AI, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, potentially even AI infrastructure and data center names because the market gets confirmation the AI spending cycle isn't over. And to be clear, this is the scenario I'm not only hoping for, but also it's my expectation.

But then there's scenario two where Nvidia disappoints. This is where things could get real ugly. And this would be a surprise because it rarely ever happens. And again, Nvidia doesn't necessarily have to report bad numbers for stocks to sell off. Imagine revenues beating, EPS beating, but Q3 guidance disappoints or gross margins compress, Rubin experiences delays, or Jensen starts talking about customers becoming a little more cautious. Suddenly, the conversation changes completely. And given how much money has flowed into AI infrastructure, investors could start taking some risk off across the entire sector. That's why Wednesday could create such a major jolt.

Options markets, well, they're currently pricing approximately a 6% move in Nvidia in either direction around the report on a company worth $5 trillion dollars. 6% represents roughly a $300 billion market value one way or another from one earnings report.

So, there's one final thing I want investors to understand. Even if Nvidia reports phenomenal numbers, the stock could still fall. In fact, Nvidia that share their shares have declined the day following their report over the course of the past four earnings report. Why? Expectations. Everyone knows Nvidia's going to report enormous growth. Everyone knows AI spending has remained strong. Everyone expects another good quarter. The question isn't will Nvidia beat? The question is, can Nvidia beat expectations by enough to exceed the expectations already embedded into the stock and raise the bar in terms of forward guidance? That's a much higher bar. And that's why I wouldn't try to gamble on the immediate post earnings reaction. I'm much more interested in what the report tells me about the next 3 to 5 years for the stock.

So, in conclusion, Nvidia reports Wednesday, and this is probably the most important earnings report remaining in the season. I'm watching 92 plus billion in revenue, $2.09 EPS, hoping for higher, 75% gross margins, and Q3 guidance versus roughly $104 billion. What's the take on rumor demand? Is there any sales heading into China? And most importantly, Jensen Huang's commentary around infrastructure spending. Because if Nvidia tells us demand remains extraordinary, that doesn't just strengthen my Nvidia thesis, it strengthens my conviction across much of the AI investment stack. AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and potentially many more. But if we start seeing cracks, I'm not going to ignore them simply because I'm bullish on AI. That's the entire purpose of following earnings. Our thesis should follow the fundamentals, not the other way around. And Wednesday night, we're going to get one of the most important updates of those fundamentals we receive all year.

Now, I want to hear from you. What happens after Nvidia reports? Do you believe it's going to break out to new all-time highs? Or does the AI trade experience another major sell-off? Let me know down in the comments below. And more importantly, if Nvidia does sell off after earnings, are you buying the dip?

So, if Nvidia says overall AI infrastructure spending continues exploding, that's great for both Broadcom and Marvell. But if Jensen starts discussing competitive pressures from custom accelerators, that's another important positive signal for both of these companies.

Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply.