Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $NVDA 的判断变化

Nvidia reported 96 billion dollars in sales, which was more than double from the same quarter last year. The management team thought they were going to deliver closer to 90 billion dollars in sales. They exceeded those expectations by roughly 5 to 6 billion.

Nvidia also revised upwards their outlook for how much revenue they expect next year. And for the first time, they highlighted a revenue growth target for the fiscal year ahead. This is something that Nvidia's management team hadn't done before. So, I'm happy to see Nvidia's stock investors reacting positively to the news. Nvidia's stock is up almost 10% on the day after they reported these announcements. For the first time in a long time, Nvidia's stock price reacting positively to the company reporting good numbers, which they've been doing for a few years now.

So, one important thing to know about that 70% revenue growth outlook for fiscal year 2028 that I mentioned earlier is that the management team said that this is a supply-constrained outlook. Meaning, if they had more supply available, they would be able to generate more revenue growth than what the management team is highlighting here.

So, this is 70% growth, which is better than what Wall Street analysts were expecting from Nvidia in the fiscal year 2028.

But, it's also coming with limitations. If they didn't have those limitations, revenue growth could have been a lot higher. So, one of the factors that's driving this growth for Nvidia is coming from hyperscaler spending on capital expenditure to build data centers.

The management team highlighted here cloud industry backlog is now greater than $2 trillion. CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly 800 billion in 2026 and 1.3 trillion in 2027.

Now, Nvidia is estimating 1.3 trillion. I can't confirm that number from my research into Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. They didn't give those precise numbers that allow me to tally it all up to 1.3 trillion for calendar year 2027. But what I can say from my research into those companies is they all indicated that they will be spending more next year than they spent this year. So, it jives with what the management team is saying here that the total spending will increase in 2027. Although, I haven't seen specific numbers from those hyperscalers to confirm that 1.3 trillion in 2027 is a precise estimate. So, I'm estimating at least 900 billion in 2027 and 1.3 trillion certainly seems very possible given the rapid rate of increase in spending from those companies, given the strong backlogs they see.

And so, it's not just revenue at a large scale, but it's revenue at a large scale with lucrative profit margins that's supporting continued investments in these categories. And that's a nice segue into a big deal that Nvidia's announcing during the conference call here. They're saying AWS will be deploying an additional 2 million GPUs starting this quarter through the second quarter of fiscal 2029 along with CPUs from Nvidia. Some integrated with Reuben, which is the GPUs, others are stand-alone.

So, Nvidia capturing major demand here from Amazon. And this has doubled the power of any other deal because Amazon has its own proprietary chips. They have GPUs, they have CPUs and that chips business for Amazon is growing by triple digits and Amazon reported that it's approaching a $25 billion annual run rate revenue business. And so, they could choose to rely on their own proprietary chips exclusively, but the market demand for Nvidia GPUs remains robust even though there are options available from hyperscalers like Amazon and Alphabet that have invested in their own proprietary chips that are viable competitors.

Additionally, Amazon will adopt Nvidia's full physical AI stack to power its fleet of warehouse robots. And I've been talking about how robots and driverless car technology could be the next catalyst for demand for Nvidia. The data center buildout is likely to last until 2028 at least. And if there should be a drop-off in demand from building these data centers, then there could be a new source of demand coming from warehouse robots, humanoid robots, driverless car technology, which I think will come before robots or more broadly available outside of warehouse automation. And so Nvidia's ability to innovate and drive demand from various revenue from various sources has been ongoing for over two decades now.

And so investors that are concerned about Nvidia's demand drying up when data center buildouts reaches a peak level, I think those concerns are valid to some degree, but they need to be put into a longer-term perspective and understand that this is a company with capabilities of innovating. And so if their innovation is not targeted towards large language models, that's right now the primary source, large language models, and the more recent thing is the proliferation of agentic AI. The next thing could be driverless car technology, robots, uh developments in health care. And so there There other sources of demand that could further accelerate or further catalyze sales for Nvidia.

So, of course, I'm thrilled to see Nvidia stock price jumping by 10% today. I own Nvidia stock. It's almost the largest position in my portfolio. In fact, after today's increase by 10%, I haven't checked just yet, but it might have overtaken Netflix as the largest position in my portfolio again. For a brief moment, Netflix surpassed Nvidia as the largest position in my portfolio. I wouldn't be surprised if now Nvidia is the larger position in my portfolio cuz they were very close.

I also recently upgraded Nvidia to the best stock to buy ranking across my coverage universe. So, I'm happy to see the share price performing so well so quickly after I upgraded Nvidia as the number one stock to buy.