Rich Habits 对 $NVDA 的判断变化
英伟达令人难以置信的季度收益报告英伟达在收盘后不久公布了财报，在我们录制本期节目时，股价上涨了 10%。因此，第二财季营收达到 962 亿美元，同比增长近 106%，远超华尔街预期的 920 亿美元。
Nvidia's unbelievable quarterly earnings report Nvidia reported earnings early after the bell and the stock is up 10% as we're recording this episode. So fiscal Q2 revenue came in at 96.2 billion, up nearly 106% year-over-year, which blew past Wall Street's expectations of $92 billion.
调整后每股收益为 2.22 美元，超出华尔街预期 13 美分。现在，数据中心收入——目前整个业务的关键——达到 890 亿美元，而预期为 850 亿美元，同比增长 117%。
Adjusted earnings per share was $2.22, beating Wall Street's estimates by 13 per share. Now, data center revenue, the whole ballgame at this point, hit $89 billion against expectations of $85 billion, increasing 117% year-over-year.
毛利率保持在 75%，与华尔街的预期完全一致。该公司在那 3 个月期间产生了超过 210 亿美元的自由现金流。
Gross profit margins held at 75%, which was right in line with Wall Street's expectations. The company threw off over $21 billion of free cash flow during that 3-month period of time.
英伟达还在本季度通过回购和股息向股东返还了 260 亿美元，并且他们仍有 990 亿美元的回购授权。是的，打破华尔街模型的是指引。
Nvidia also handed $26 billion back to shareholders during the quarter in both buybacks and dividends and they've still have $99 billion left on that repurchase authorization. Yes, the number that broke Wall Street's model was the guidance.
首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯告诉投资者，英伟达预计 2028 财年营收将同比增长 70%。
CFO Colette Crest told investors Nvidia expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow 70% yearover-year.
分析师此前建模为 44%。因此，基于约 3960 亿美元的 2027 财年基数，70% 的下限将使 2028 财年营收达到约 6730 亿美元，这将使英伟达在总营收上超过苹果和 Alphabet，仅次于亚马逊。
Analysts were modeling 44%. So off of a roughly 396 billion fiscal 2027 base and that 70% floor puts fiscal 2028 revenue around $673 billion which would put Nvidia ahead of Apple and Alphabet and behind only Amazon in total company revenue.
而疯狂的是，他们的首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯表示，70% 的数字是下限。这是下限，因为这是他们指引中受供应限制的下限，对吧？因此，不受限制的需求将使营收增长接近 100%，这太疯狂了。
And the wild part is Colette Crest their chief financial officer said that that 70% number is the floor. And it's the floor because it's the supply constrained floor of their guidance, right? So unconstrained demand puts them closer to 100% revenue growth, which is bonkers.
我的意思是，就像你说的，2027年的基数基本上是4000亿美元。在此基础上加上70%的增长，就达到6750亿美元。但如果没有供应限制，这个数字在2028年实际上可能接近8000亿美元的年化收入，对英伟达来说。
I mean, literally like you're you're saying 2027 base is essentially 400 billion. You slap 70% growth on top of that, which gets you to 675 billion. But if they weren't supply constrained, that number could actually be closer to $800 billion in annualized revenue in 2028 for Nvidia,
这简直太疯狂了。我们已经持有英伟达多年了。我们看到了像英伟达和美光这样的公司的大幅上涨。
which is just crazy. We've owned Nvidia now for years. We've seen this massive rise in these companies like Nvidia and Micron and all that.
看到这一点，奥斯汀，这甚至很有趣，因为我们长期以来一直对Rich Habits Network的听众和这个播客说，我们认为英伟达被低估了，而这些数字确实在当前股价中显示了这一点。
And to see that and it's it's even funny Austin because we've been saying for a long time to our listeners in the Rich Habits Network and here on the podcast that we believe Nvidia is underpriced and these numbers really show that in the current stock price.
杰富瑞分析师布莱恩·柯蒂斯将他的报告命名为“皇帝反击战”，并写道，70%的增长下限比华尔街之前基于Blackwell加Rubin框架建立的模型高出2000亿美元。他认为到2029财年收入有望达到1万亿美元。他维持了买入评级，目标价在300美元左右。
And Jeff analyst Blaine Curtis titled his note the emperor strikes back and wrote that the 70% growth floor is 200 billion above the prior Blackwell plus Rubin framework Wall Street had built its models around. He sees a clear path to $1 trillion of revenue in fiscal year 2029. And he kept his buy rating around that $300 price point.
但那个目标价并不是目前华尔街其他目标价所在的位置。Evercore的目标价是465美元。他们的分析师表示，英伟达目前是其整个覆盖范围内最具吸引力的风险回报比之一，仅以2027年每股收益的13倍交易。
But that price target is not where other Wall Street price targets are being shared right now. Evercore has a price target of $465. Their analyst is saying that Nvidia is one of the most compelling riskreward ratios in their entire coverage universe right now, trading at just 13 times 2027 earnings per share.
作为背景，罗伯特，标普500指数目前平均交易在20倍。所以英伟达现在比标普500更便宜，这太疯狂了。
For context, Robert, the S&P 500 as an index on average right now is trading at 20 times. So Nvidia right now is cheaper than the S&P 500, which is bonkers.
有一个问题。毛利率指引下调至2027日历年度的72%至73%，而之前是70年代中期，第三季度指引为1080亿美元，高于华尔街预期的1048.6亿美元。
There is one wrinkle. Gross margins are guided down to 72 to 73% for calendar year 2027 from the mid70s previously and Q3 guidance came in at 108 billion ahead of the 104.86 billion Wall Street wanted.
但英伟达明确表示，该数字假设来自中国的收入为零。零。这不是隐藏的风险。这是一个明确的风险。而且他们仍然指引高于华尔街的预期。所以，我认为目前对英伟达来说都是好消息，一帆风顺。
But Nvidia explicitly said it's assuming zero revenue from China in that number. Zero. And that's not a hidden risk. That's a stated one. And they're still guiding above what the street expected. So, I think it's all good news and smooth sailing for Nvidia right now.
对我来说，我认为这是英伟达不再保守地超越指引，而是开始公开告诉华尔街其模型太小的时刻。所以，当一家公司出来说，“我们的下限是70%的增长，但我们的实际需求接近100%。”那不仅仅是企业的对冲基金语言。那是一家客户多于可用计算能力的公司。
For me, I think this is the moment Nvidia stopped being the beat and guide conservatively story and started openly telling Wall Street its models are just too small. And so, when a company comes out and says, "Our floor is 70% growth, but our actual demand is closer to 100%." That's just not corporate hedge fund speak. That's a company that has more customers than compute available.
今天早上在wall street favorites.com上查看英伟达，在今天的上涨之前，它大约在每股229美元，而分析师共识目标价为每股365美元。在这次财报之前，华尔街已经定价了超过50%的上涨空间。
And I pulled up Nvidia on wall street favorites.com this morning before today's pop and it was sitting at around $229 a share against a consensus analyst target of $365 a share. Over 50% upside is already priced in by the street before this print.
现在，如果以Evercore的465美元目标价和比旧框架高出2000亿美元的指引数字来计算，你就会开始理解为什么该股大涨两位数，而我们Rich Habits播客认为它将在未来几年继续增长。
Now bake it in at $465 price target from Evercore and a guidance number $200 billion above that old framework and you start to understand why the stock ripped double digits and we here at the Rich Habits podcast believe it's going to continue to grow in the coming years.
是的，对我来说，一个重要的收获是，两年来，AI交易不得不为“支出何时停止”辩护。英伟达刚刚用一个华尔街没有分析师预料到的数字回答了这个问题。
Yeah, for me a big takeaway is that for two years the AI trade has had to defend itself against when does the spending stop. Nvidia just answered that question with a number that no analyst on Wall Street was expecting.
再加上1600亿美元的自有资金保证其客户能够继续购买，这是财报电话会议中也谈到的某种循环融资。这要么是半导体行业历史上从未有过的公司最自信的指引，要么是英伟达的命运现在与其自身客户、资产负债表和循环融资紧密相连的最清晰迹象。
That paired with $ 160 billion dollars of its own money guaranteeing that its customers can keep buying, which was sort of the circular financing stuff that was also talked about during the earnings call. That's either the most confident guidance that we've heard from a company like ever in the history of the semiconductor industry or the clearest sign yet of how tightly Nvidia's fortunes are now wound around its own customers and the balance sheet and the circular financing.
你可以认为这是好事或坏事，但我的看法是英伟达是一个怪物。
You can either think of it as a good thing or a bad thing, but my take is that Nvidia is a monster.
而且，罗伯特，我们几周前谈过这个。我们看到英伟达的交易价格在192、195美元左右。我当时想，等等，英伟达现在的定价好像是有史以来最便宜的股票。怎么回事？为什么？我们去投钱吧。
And you know, Robert, we were talking about it a couple weeks ago. We saw Nvidia was trading at like 192 195 a share. And I was like, wait, Nvidia's priced right now as if it's like, you know, the cheapest name in like ever. Like what's going on? Why? Let's go put money.
我记得在我们拍摄之前，我们在规划节目时，我说，我们赶紧投1万美元到英伟达。所以我们俩都投了，现在它到了230美元左右。
And like I remember before we were filming, we're you know uh outlining the episode and I was like, let's go put 10 grand in Nvidia real quick. And so we both did and now it's at 230 a share or whatever.
现在整个世界都在以人工智能为核心进行重建。在未来十年，英伟达将成为这一基础设施建设中最大的受益者之一。毫无疑问。
It's just like the entire world is being rebuilt right now with AI in mind. Nvidia will be one of the largest beneficiaries of that infrastructure buildout over the next decade. Full stop.
英伟达的首席财务官刚刚告诉我们，情况将会如此，并且将继续如此，因为需求是无穷无尽的。是的，百分之百。我同意，而且我很高兴我们很早就看好英伟达，并且判断正确。
And Nvidia's CFO just told us that that's going to be the case and is going to remain the case because the demand is just insatiable. Yeah, 100%. And I agree and I'm so glad we've been early and right about Nvidia.
很多人都在想，下一个英伟达什么时候出现？这什么时候会发生？而我在想，你和我正在讨论，目前的目标价是多么便宜。当我们讨论它时，价格是196，现在已经是200多了。我认为它将继续增长。
And so many people, you know, are sitting there, when's the next Nvidia going to happen? When's this going to happen? And I'm sitting there thinking, you know, you and I are talking about it, how inexpensive it is as a as a target price right now. Um, when we were talking about it at 196 and now it's at two something. Um, and I think it's just going to continue to grow.
我喜欢这家公司，它是这一切的中心，就像元老一样，还有AMD、美光、台积电，以及你提到的ASML。所以，我认为这个组合是长期参与人工智能交易的绝佳方式。
And I love them as a company, you know, being kind of that granddaddy in the center of it all, you know, along with AMD and Micron and like Taiwan Semiconductor. and you mentioned ASML. So, I think that collective right there is just a great way to be in this AI trade for the long term.
这些GPU显然是英伟达的GPU，所以这对英伟达有利。
these GPUs are obviously Nvidia's GPUs right like or so like that's good for Nvidia
下一个英伟达是什么时候？
When's the next Nvidia?
英伟达，我对这个世界感到非常愤怒，因为现在没有人明白英伟达有多便宜。如果你在10年前投资1万美元于英伟达，那么这笔1万美元的投资总回报将是1,407,000美元。
Nvidia, I am so mad at the world that right now nobody gets how cheap Nvidia is. And the total return on $10,000 with Nvidia, if you invested in it 10 years ago, would be $1,407,000 on a $10,000 investment with Nvidia.
英伟达明天公布财报。他们很可能会大幅超出预期。但仍然有可能股价在财报公布后下跌5%到10%，这不应该发生。
Nvidia announces earnings tomorrow. They're going to crush earnings more than likely. But there's still a chance that the stock goes down 5 to 10% on those earnings, which should not happen.
英伟达很便宜。
um Nvidia's inexpensive.