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ORCL

Oracle Corporation Common Stock · Oracle Corporation Common Stock
窗口 08-18 → 08-25 · 回看 7 天(美东)

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$ORCLMeet Kevin发布 2026-08-24
Nancy Pelosi Reveals MASSIVE 7-figure AI Stock Purchase
Oracle是一个高风险的数据中心投资,由于高债务和不断上升的违约风险,股价较峰值下跌近60%。
看跌

甲骨文是那种肮脏的数据中心股票,其信用违约互换持续飙升,因为人们认为他们承担了太多债务,违约风险很高。甲骨文股票的表现也不太好。如果你看看甲骨文股票从峰值到现在的143/351,这与Bloom Energy在350年代中期的高点几乎相同,那已经下跌了近60%。这主要是因为他们的债务。

Oracle is, you know, the dirty sort of data center play whose credit default swaps continue to skyrocket because people think they're taking on so much debt, there's a high risk of default. Oracle stock has not exactly been doing them any favors, either. If you look at Oracle stock peak to where it is now at 143 / 351, which is eerily the same almost the same top that you had in in the mid 350s range over here for a Bloom Energy, that's down nearly 60%. Uh and it's mostly because of the debt they're taking on.

$ORCLMeet Kevin发布 2026-08-24
Memory Stock Crash, Bessent Bailout, Iran, Stocks & Real Estate
Oracle的高债务和不断上升的违约风险使其成为高风险交易对手,其作为集中客户对Bloom Energy构成风险。
看跌

Oracle 正在以三年期 4.5 和十年期 5.7 的利率筹集资金。

Oracle's raising money on a three-year at 4.5 and on a 10ear at 5.7.

嗯,让我们看看收入,收入,哦,他们与 Oracle 有合作关系,这也非常有趣。而且 Oracle 获得了以 113 美元购买 300 万股股票的选择权。哦,他们真幸运。好吧,为他们高兴。

所以,他们在这些认股权证上赚了不少。那非常好。所以,他们在那里做了一笔好买卖。

uh let's see here revenue revenue oh they have a partnership with Oracle that's also Very interesting. And Oracle got options to buy 3 million shares at 113. Oh, lucky them. Okay, good for them. So, they're nicely up on those warrants. That's very good. So, they made a good buy there.

那是 Oracle 的文件。我们看到了他们给 Oracle 的票据。

That's the Oracle doc. We saw the Oracle note from them.

所以他们与 Oracle 的交易占了他们第二季度收入的绝大部分。那真的很有趣。Oracle 的交易可能是最大的风险之一。那么,他们有没有提到那个嗯,集中度嗯,地理客户风险?我们来看看。

是的。是的。是的。看看那个。在这三个月里,来自两个客户的收入,其中第二个是关联方,附注 11,占我们收入的 44% 和 21%。哇。在之前的六个月里,来自一个客户的收入占我们收入的 73%。

哦,那对他们的 AI 基金和嗯 Oracle 来说真的很重。这几乎是 Oracle 疯狂债务的供应商。那让我更加看空。嗯,我要把它记下来。那是一个重要的点。所以,可能可能是最吓人的一行。

好的。所以这是过去六个月里 73% 的收入来自一个客户 Oracle,嗯,第一季度 44% 来自 Oracle。抱歉,那是第二季度。所以 Oracle 在疯狂花钱,Bloom 接住了。你知道,他们在捡这些钱。

So the Oracle deal they have is the vast majority of their Q2 revenue. That's really interesting. The Oracle deal is probably one of the biggest risks. So, did they say that uh concentration uh geographic customer risk? Here we go. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Look at that. During the three months, revenue from two customers, the second of which is a related party, note 11, accounted for 44% and 21% of our revenue. Wow. During the prior six months, revenue from one customer accounted for 73% of our revenue. Oo, that's really heavy on their AI fund and uh Oracle. This is almost a supplier to Oracles drunken debt. That makes me more bearish. Uh, I'm going to write that down. That's that's a big point. So, probably probably the scariest line. Okay. So this is 73% of rev in last 6 months one customer Oracle and um 44% of Q1 was Oracle. Sorry that was Q2. So Oracle is drunk spending and Bloom picks it up. You know, they're picking up the dollars.

所以,这实际上不仅仅是对数据中心的押注。这就像是对 Oracle 的押注。那么,Oracle 的股票表现如何?让我们去看看。嗯,Oracle,Oracle,Oracle。我总是觉得好笑,你知道,当 Oracle 的股票下跌时,你几乎可以说,哦,天哪,他们没预料到。

它就是个混蛋。嗯,但你知道,就像 Elon 常说的,命运喜欢讽刺,你知道。

So, this is actually more than just a data center bet. It's all It's like a bet on Oracle. So, how's Oracle stock performing? Let's go find out. Uh, Oracle, Oracle, Oracle. I always think it's funny that, you know, as Oracle stock goes down, you could kind of say like, "Oh man, they didn't see that one coming. It's just it's just being an a-hole." Um, but you know, it's like what Elon always says, fate loves irony, you know.

他们上个季度 44% 的收入来自 Oracle。而在过去六个月里,73% 来自 Oracle。Oracle 是,你知道,那个肮脏的数据中心玩家,其信用违约互换持续飙升,因为人们认为他们承担了太多债务。

违约风险很高。Oracle 的股票也没有给他们带来什么好处。如果你看看 Oracle 的股票从峰值到现在的 143 除以 351,这几乎和 Bloom Energy 在 350 多点的顶部一模一样。

那下跌了将近 60%。嗯,这主要是因为他们在承担的债务。

44% of their Q1 or their last quarter's revenue came from Oracle. And in the last 6 months, 73% came from Oracle. Oracle is, you know, the dirty sort of data center play whose credit default swaps continue to skyrocket because people think they're taking on so much debt. There's a high risk of default. Oracle stock has not exactly been doing them any favors either. If you look at Oracle stock peak to where it is now at 143 divided by 351, which is eerily the same almost the same top that you had um in in the mid 350s range over here for Bloom Energy. That's down nearly 60%. Uh and it's mostly because of the debt they're taking on.

那可能将不仅仅依赖于人工智能用途的扩展,无论是在医疗保健、机器人、你知道,太空,你知道,无论什么,AGI,你知道,我不相信 AGI,但不管怎样。嗯,我们真正希望看到的是那种繁荣的扩展,就像我们在内存周期中讨论的那样,在你最终得到那种最终衰退之前,你可以扩展数据中心平台。

理想情况下,你会得到更多 AI 数据中心增长的曲线,你真的会让燃料电池成为不仅仅是 Oracle 购买的核心产品,还有其他数据中心。

What that's probably going to rely on is not just an expansion of what artificial intelligence is used for, whether it's in healthcare, robotics, you know, space, you know, whatever, AGI, which, you know, I don't believe in AGI, but whatever. Um, what we really want to see is an expansion of that boom, kind of like what we talked about in that memory cycle where you can expand out that data center plateau before you kind of get that eventual decline. Ideally, you get some more scurves of AI data center growth and you really get fuel cells becoming sort of a core product for not just Oracle uh that they purchase but also other data centers.

所以那并不使 Bloom Energy 成为一家坏公司。这是一个集中风险。现在那并不意味着有集中风险的公司就是坏的。就像,关键是交易对手是谁?所以在这种情况下,交易对手是 Oracle,其信用违约互换正在飙升。

So that doesn't make Bloom Energy a bad company. It's a concentrated risk. Now that doesn't mean companies with concentrated risk are bad. Like it's just who's the counterparty? So in this case the counterparty is Oracle which credit default swaps are skyrocketing on.

我们真的希望看到扩展到其他数据中心,而不仅仅是 Oracle。

We really want to see expansion to other data centers rather than just Oracle.

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