Dividendology 对 $PEP 的判断变化
百事公司的股票目前仍然是投资者中争论最多的股票之一，而且实际上在过去几年里一直如此。最终，如果我们跳到股息明细表并查看百事公司，可以看到该股的股息率超过4%，作为快速参考，如果我们在这里查看Seeking Alpha上的历史股息率，这是该公司在过去十年中见过的最高股息率。
Pepsi stock continues to be one of the most debated stocks among investors right now, and really it's been that way over the last couple of years. Ultimately, if we jump over to the dividend breakdown sheet and look at Pepsi, what you can see is the stock is yielding over 4%, which real quick for reference, if we look here on Seeking Alpha and look at the historical dividend yield, this is the highest dividend yield the company has seen in the last decade.
起始股息率远高于正常水平，股息增长历史超过50年连续增加，10年和5年股息增长率大约在6%到7%之间。所以，你可以理解为什么这立即从股息角度吸引人们的注意，然后当你查看估值时，它正以过去5年中最低的估值倍数交易。
A much higher than normal starting dividend yield, a history of dividend growth over 50 consecutive years of dividend increases, with the 10 and 5-year dividend growth rates sitting roughly between 6% and 7%. So, you can see why this immediately catches people's eye from a dividend perspective, and then when you look at the valuation, it's trading at its lowest valuation multiple in the last 5 years.
然而，如果你关注这个频道已经有一段时间了，你知道我个人并不持有百事公司的股票。事实上，在过去大约三年里，我一直公开看空这只股票，你可以看到该股表现不佳。在过去5年中，下跌了约8%。
However, if you've been watching the channel for a while now, you know I don't personally own Pepsi in my portfolio. In fact, I've been outspokenly bearish on this stock over the last three or so years, and you can see the stock has not done well. In the last 5 years, down by about 8%.
有趣的是，当你查看这两只股票的历史估值时，百事公司用橙色表示，可口可乐用绿色表示。历史上，它们的估值水平相对接近，但从大约2023年底、2024年初开始，我们看到这些股票的估值倍数出现了巨大分歧。
And what's interesting is when you look at the historical valuation for these two stocks, we have Pepsi in the orange and then Coca-Cola in the green. Historically, they've traded at relatively similar valuation levels, but starting in around late 2023, early 2024, we started to see a wide divergence in the valuation multiples for these stocks.
百事公司现在的市盈率为16.6倍，而可口可乐的市盈率高达27倍。这两只股票之间的估值存在巨大分歧。这是否合理，还是百事公司已经成为一个巨大的机会？
Pepsi's now trading at a 16.6 PE multiple, while Coca-Cola is all the way up to 27 times earnings. That is a huge divergence in the valuation between these two stocks. Is that justified, or has Pepsi become a huge opportunity?
首先，让我们分解百事公司目前面临的一些问题。乍一看，股息指标确实看起来相当有吸引力，正如我们刚刚指出的，但根本问题始终是资本配置。
To start, let's break down some of the issues that Pepsi is currently facing. The dividend metrics at first glance do look quite attractive as we just pointed out, but the underlying issue is always capital allocation.
2025年，百事公司产生了约76亿美元的自由现金流，而支付的股息也是76亿美元。因此，自由现金流支付比率为99.5%。他们基本上将所有资本用于支付股息，如果我们稍微回顾一下，情况也不会好多少。
去年，自由现金流支付比率为100%。前年稍好一些，为84%，但在2022年，这一比率为110%。因此，我们现在连续四年基本上股息消耗了几乎所有的自由现金流。他们用所有的自由现金流来支付股息。
In 2025, Pepsi generated around 7.6 billion in free cash flow while dividends paid out was also 7.6 billion. So, the free cash flow payout ratio is 99.5%. They essentially used all of their capital to pay out dividends, and it doesn't get much better if we go back just a little bit. Last year, the free cash flow payout ratio was at 100%. The year before that, a little bit better, 84, but in 2022, it was at 110%. So, we now have four consecutive years where essentially dividends are eating up essentially all of the free cash flow. They're using all of their free cash flow to pay out dividends.
你会注意到的一件事是，该公司在过去几年中一直在略微回购股票。所以，一开始我们就知道，他们不仅用所有的自由现金流支付股息，而且还在回购股票。
One of the things you'll notice is the company has been slightly buying back shares over the last few years. So, right off the bat, we know they're not only paying out dividends using again all of their free cash flow to pay out dividends, but they're also buying back shares.
他们告诉我们的是股东总现金回报。这意味着股息加上股票回购约为89亿美元。其中79亿美元将用于支付股息，股票回购约为10亿美元。所以，基本上他们必须产生89亿美元的自由现金流来覆盖所有对股东的现金回报。
What they're telling us is total cash returns to shareholders. That means dividends plus share buybacks is approximately 8.9 billion. 7.9 billion will be paid out in dividends with share re purchases at around 1 billion. So, basically they have to generate 8.9 billion in free cash flow to cover all of their cash returns to shareholders.
所以，如果他们打算向股东返还89亿美元，为了不削弱资产负债表、不承担债务，他们需要产生89亿美元的自由现金流，而作为参考，该公司从未做到过这一点。事实上，过去十年的自由现金流增长略微为负。它没有增长，这显然非常令人担忧。
So, if they're going to return to shareholders 8.9 billion in order to not weaken the balance sheet, to take on debt, they need to generate 8.9 billion in free cash flow, which for reference the company has never done before. In fact, free cash growth over the past decade is slightly negative. It hasn't gone anywhere, which is obviously very concerning.
所以，我们真正需要问的问题，高于所有其他问题的是，自由现金流能否再次开始增长？现在，这是一个非常明显的问题，因为这是我们分析每只股票时都应该问的问题，但特别是对于百事公司，严格从股息可持续性的角度来看，这是一个非常重要的问题。
So, really the question we need to be asking above all other questions is can free cash flow start to grow again? Now, it's a very obvious question because that's the question we should be asking for every single stock we analyze, but particularly for Pepsi, strictly from a dividend sustainability perspective, it's a very important question.
如果我们跳到盈利能力表，公司增长自由现金流的最简单方式显然是增长收入。现在，数据将感谢Ticker Data加载，你可以看到5年收入增长实际上还不错。大约在6%。然而，特别是最近3年，它真的开始停滞不前。我们现在大约3年一直处于同一区间。
If we jump over to the profitability sheet, the easiest way for a company to grow free cash flow is obviously to grow revenues. Now, the data will load in thanks to Ticker Data and you can see 5-year revenue growth is actually not too bad. It's sitting at about 6%. However, in particular the last 3 years it's really started to stagnate. We've been sitting in the same range for about 3 years now.
现在，当然，如果一家公司的收入停滞不前，他们仍然可以通过扩大利润率来增长自由现金流。现在，毛利率没有扩大，但这并不是真正反映利润率的最佳指标。我们需要关注自由现金流利润率，这同样可以通过跳到自由现金流分析表并查看百事公司来实现。
Now, of course, if a company is stagnating revenues, they can still grow free cash flow by expanding their margins. Now, the gross profit margin hasn't expanded, but that's not the best indicator of really what the margins look like. We need to be looking at free cash flow margins, which again we can do by jumping to the free cash flow analysis sheet and looking at Pepsi.
他们告诉我们，他们预计2026年的自由现金流转换率至少为80%。自由现金流转换，这告诉我们什么？嗯，它告诉我们收益中有多少百分比直接转化为自由现金流。所以，再次跳回自由现金流分析表，这就是那个指标。
所以2025年是93.11%。他们告诉我们2026年将至少为80%。所以技术上可能会高一点，但这比我们在2025年看到的要低不少。所以这令人担忧。
What they tell us is they expect to have a free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80% in 2026. Free cash flow conversion, what is this telling us? Well, it's telling us what percentage of earnings are directly being translated into free cash flow. So again, jump back over to the free cash flow analysis sheet and here's that metric right here. So in 2025, it was 93.11%. They're telling us that in 2026, it'll be at least 80%. So technically it could be a little bit higher, but that's quite a bit lower than what we saw in 2025. So that's concerning.
自由现金流利润率可能会更差，再加上他们指导有机收入仅增长2%到4%，这基本上与通胀大致一致。所以实际上，从真正的实际收入增长来看，收入根本没有增长。所以这令人担忧。我们预计不会有强劲的收入增长，自由现金流转换率应该会更低，但与此同时，他们计划向股东分配89亿美元的资本，但自由现金流可能不会那么高。至少我看不到达到那个水平的路径。
Free cash flow margins are likely to be worse, combined with the fact that they're guiding towards organic revenue to increase by just 2 to 4% which again is essentially somewhat in line with inflation. So really on a true real revenue growth basis, revenue's not growing at all. So this is concerning. We're not expected to see strong revenue growth, free cash flow conversion ratio should be lower, but at the exact same time, they plan to distribute 8.9 billion of capital to shareholders, but free cash flow likely won't be that high. At least I don't see the path forward to hitting that level.
所以我对百事公司的主要担忧再次纯粹是资本配置。人们看到高起始股息率、历史性的股息增长水平以及连续50年的股息增长，并认为这是一个绝佳的机会，尤其是在市盈率处于5-10年低点的情况下。
但现实是，这些都是向后看的指标。这只股票的问题在于资本配置。
So my main concern with Pepsi again is purely capital allocation. People see that high starting dividend yield, the historic dividend growth levels in 50 consecutive years of dividend growth, and assume this is a great opportunity particularly when looking at that PE multiple at a 5-10 year low. But the reality is these are all backwards-looking metrics. The issue for this stock is capital allocation.
现在他们正在尝试进行并购，例如与Poppy的并购，以再次刺激增长，但同样，这将削弱资产负债表，因为他们没有产生足够的自由现金流来进行这些收购，因为他们用所有的自由现金流来支付股息。更不用说，他们目前正在应对消费疲软。
Now they're doing things like attempting mergers and acquisitions like with Poppy for example to start to spur growth again, but again, that's going to weaken the balance sheet because they're not generating enough free cash flow to pursue these acquisitions because they're using all their free cash flow to pay out dividends. Not to mention, they're currently dealing with a weakening consumer.
所以，是的，即使在当前价格下，我对百事股票也有疑虑，因为让我展示一下即使在当前价格下估值是什么样子。让我们继续看我们的股息贴现模型。这是我对百事的第一个疑虑，至少就他们目前的估值而言。
再次强调，我们根据他们支付的股息以及该股息未来的增长来评估股票。我们已经看到了他们面临的困难，不仅是在增长股息方面，而且是在未来几年内仅仅维持股息而不真正削弱资产负债表方面。
So, yes, I do have issues with Pepsi stock even at these prices because let me show you what valuation looks like even at these prices. Let's go ahead and jump over to our dividend discount model. And here's my first issue with Pepsi, at least with their valuation right now. Again, we're valuing the stock based on how much they pay out in dividends and how much that dividend will grow in the future. And we've already seen the difficulty they're going to have, not in just growing the dividend, but in simply maintaining the dividend over the next few years without really weakening the balance sheet.
因此，考虑到这一点，如果他们以大约3%的速度增长股息，说实话这可能算是慷慨的，尽管这低于历史股息增长率，他们的公允价值将在105美元左右，意味着较当前价格有26%的下行空间。
So, with that in mind, if they grew dividends at about 3%, which to be honest could potentially be generous, even though it's lower than the historical dividend growth rates, their fair value would be around $105, implying 26% downside from current prices.
现在，百事是那些历史上被视为非常防御性的股票之一，而且它绝对是抗AI的，这意味着这些类型的股票目前往往会有溢价交易。
Now, Pepsi is one of those stocks that historically has been viewed as very defensive, and it's definitely AI-resistant, which means those are the types of stocks that tend to trade at a premium right now.
但是，市场中的很多人开始意识到百事的股息指标已不如从前。他们的资本配置也不如从前，甚至收入增长和利润率也不如从前。
But, a lot of the market is starting to wake up to the fact that Pepsi's dividend metrics aren't what they used to be. Their capital allocation is not what it used to be, and even revenue growth in the margins are not what it used to be.
这并不是说事情不能好转。但是，当你审视这些前瞻性指引，并将其与当前资本配置情况相对照，你可以看到即使在接下来的几年里，百事股票仍然存在担忧。
That's not to say that things can't turn around. But, when you look at this forward-looking guidance and look at it relative to what their capital allocation is currently looking like, you can see even in the next few years, there's still concerns for Pepsi stock.
所以，再次强调，这并不意味着他们不能扭转局面。但是，我们总是必须通过风险回报情景的视角来看待投资。而目前，回报不足以让我承担投资百事股票的风险。即使在这个估值水平，一个对百事来说历史性的低估值，我也无法让数字为我工作，从而考虑将其加入我的投资组合。
So, again, this doesn't mean they can't turn things around. But, we always have to look at investments through the lens of a risk-to-reward scenario. And right now, the reward is not high enough for me to take on the risk of investing into Pepsi stock. Even at this valuation level, a historically low valuation for Pepsi, I can't make the numbers work for me to consider adding this into my portfolio.
所以，这绝对是一个有趣的案例研究，一只值得放在观察名单上并密切关注未来几个季度发展的股票。但说实话，我确实认为我过去几年的评估是正确的。我们看到百事下跌，并继续在这个相对于2023年接近每股200美元交易时的低区间内交易。
So, it's definitely an interesting case study, a stock to have on your watch list and watch closely with what develops over the next few quarters. But, to be honest, I do think my assessment over the last few years has been right. We've seen Pepsi decline and continue to trade in this low range relative to what they were trading at back in 2023 when they were close to $200 a share.
现在，我们来看百事股票，这是一只我在过去几年里一直非常批评的股票。我曾警告投资者这只股票潜伏的潜在问题，以及目前正在发生的问题，结果，我们可以看到这些问题已经显现，股价处于52周低点。
事实上，百事现在的5年回报率为负11%，对于一只在我们经济中如此重要的股票来说，这令人难以置信。但这就是我们现在面临的现实。
Now, we have Pepsi stock, a stock I've been very critical of over the last couple of years. I've warned investors of the potential issues that are looming with this stock, the issues that are currently going on, and as a result, we can see those issues have come to fruition, and the stock is at a 52-week low. In fact, the 5-year returns now for Pepsi are minus 11%, which is mind-blowing to think about for a stock that is this much of a staple in our economy. But, that's the reality that we're looking at right now.
问题是，在这些价格交易时，他们处于过去5年最低的估值倍数之一，市盈率仅为15.95，而平均值为21.3，突然间，该股票的收益率比历史上高得多。该股票目前的收益率远高于4%，而且，这又是一只股息王股票，连续50多年增加股息，10年和5年股息复合年增长率超过6%。
所以，当你考虑到历史股息增长、不错的初始股息收益率和历史高水平的股息增长时，从表面上看，这看起来是一个极具吸引力的股息机会。但如果你就此停止分析，你会错过一些绝对关键的见解。
Now, the thing is, trading at these prices is they're at one of their lowest valuation multiples in the last 5 years, with a PE multiple of just 15.95, where the average is 21.3, and all of a sudden, the stock is yielding quite a bit more than it historically has. The stock is yielding well over 4% at this point, and again, this is another dividend king stock with over 50 consecutive years of dividend increases, and a 10 and 5-year dividend CAGR of over 6%. So, when you consider the historic dividend growth, the nice starting dividend yield, and the historical high levels of dividend growth, on the surface level, that looks like an incredibly attractive dividend opportunity. But, if you stopped your analysis right there, you would be missing some absolutely critical insights.
让我告诉你我的意思。首先，让我们跳到我们的自由现金流表。我不想只看自由现金流表，但我想更深入地了解这只股票的实际自由现金流指标。让我告诉你为什么。我们将输入股票代码Pepsi。
现在我们看到的是相对简单的。这是经营现金流、资本支出，记住，经营现金流减去资本支出等于自由现金流。自由现金流是内在价值的最终驱动因素。如果自由现金流增长，那么股票可以增加股息。
它可以回购股票。最终，它可以再投资于业务，这将推动股价上涨。所以，自由现金流基本上是我们的黄金指标。现在，我们会注意到，从2015年到2025年，百事的自由现金流实际上停滞不前。
它没有任何增长。所以，显然，这是第一个主要担忧。
And let me show you what I mean. To start, let's jump over to our free cash flow sheet. I don't want to just look at the free cash flow sheet, but I want to take a much deeper dive into what the actual free cash flow metrics for this stock look like. And let me show you why. We'll go ahead and plug in the ticker Pepsi. Now, what we're looking at here is relatively simple. It's operating cash flows, capital expenditures, and remember, operating cash flow minus capital expenditures equals free cash flow. And free cash flow is the ultimate driver of intrinsic value. If free cash flow is growing, then a stock can grow its dividends. It can buy back shares. And ultimately, it can reinvest back into the business, which will push the share price higher. So, free cash flow is essentially our golden metric. Now, what we'll notice is from 2015 to 2025 for Pepsi, free cash flow actually has stagnated. It hasn't seen any growth whatsoever. So, obviously, that's the first major concern.
不过，我们可以看到的一件事是经营现金流已经增长。所以，核心业务产生的现金流，是的，已经增长，但资本支出也增长了。现在，我们在2025年开始看到资本支出回落，所以这是一个好迹象。
但请仔细观察他们的股息情况。自由现金流为76亿美元，我们可以看到在2025年，是的，自由现金流为76亿美元，但股息也是76亿美元。所以，这家公司用所有的自由现金流来支付股息。
Now, one of the things we can see though is operating cash flows have grown. So, the cash flows the core business is generating, yes, that's grown, but capital expenditures have grown. Now, we started to see a pullback in CapEx in 2025, so that's a good sign. But, take a close look at what's going on with their dividends. With free cash flow at 7.6 billion, what we can see is in 2025, yes, free cash flow at 7.6 billion, but dividends was also 7.6 billion. So, this company used all of their free cash flow to pay out dividends.
现在请记住，在资本配置方面，有五个选项。我一直强调这一点，但这是投资者必须理解的最重要的概念之一。公司如何利用自由现金流？他们可以再投资于业务。他们可以尝试并购。他们可以偿还债务、回购股票和支付股息。
那么，如果百事用100%的自由现金流来支付股息，这意味着什么？这意味着他们没有剩余资本来做我刚才提到的其他选项。所以，最终的问题是，百事能否开始以一定的速度增长自由现金流，以便他们能够开始再投资于业务，轻松覆盖那些股息支付，开始回购股票？这就是百事一切的关键所在。
Now, keep in mind, when it comes to capital allocation, there's five options. I hammer this home all the time, but it is one of the most important concepts that investors have to understand. How can a company utilize free cash flow? Well, they can reinvest back into the business. They can attempt mergers and acquisitions. They could pay down debt, buy back shares, and pay out a dividend. So, what does it mean if Pepsi's using 100% of their free cash flow to pay out dividends? Well, it means that they don't have capital left over to do those other options that I just mentioned. So, ultimately, the question is, can Pepsi start growing free cash flow at a rate where they can start reinvesting back into the business, where they can easily cover those dividend payments, where they can start to buy back shares? That's ultimately what everything hinges on for Pepsi.
那么，他们的指引是什么样的？我在dividendology.com上写过这个，但这里有三个关键要点。有机收入预计仅增长2%至4%。所以，这基本上就是与通胀一致的收入增长，因此，最终收入根本没有增长。
此外，他们还表示预计自由现金流转换率至少为80%。这意味着什么？它告诉我们他们实际上将多少百分比的收益转化为自由现金流。但可怕的是，如果我们回到我们的自由现金流分析，看看百事公司，当我们放大时，仔细看看这个关键指标。
我们可以看到，在2025年，自由现金流转换率为93%。他们告诉我们，今年将接近80%。所以，不仅有机收入实际上没有超过通胀率增长，而且他们的自由现金流转换率在接下来的一年里还会更低。
因此，这两点都将使得在2026年最终增长自由现金流变得非常困难，但这里最大的危险信号是，他们对股东的总现金回报将约为89亿美元。他们支付79亿美元的股息，顺便说一下，目前自由现金流并没有覆盖这些股息支付，但同时，他们回购了价值10亿美元的股票。
所以，他们向股东返还了89亿美元的资本，而自由现金流可能不会比2025年高多少。所以，这些无疑是投资者需要警惕的危险信号。
So, what does their guidance look like? And I was writing about this over on dividendology.com, but there's three key takeaways. Organic revenue is projected to increase only between 2 and 4%. So, that's essentially revenue growth in line with inflation, so ultimately, revenue is not growing at all. Now, they also stated they expect a free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 80%. Now, what does this mean? Well, it's telling us what percentage of earnings they're actually translating into free cash flow. But, here's what's scary. If we jump back over to our free cash flow analysis and look at Pepsi, take a close look at this key metric when we zoom in. We can see in 2025, free cash flow conversion was 93%. They're telling us that this year, it'll be closer to 80%. So, not only is organic revenue really not increasing any above the rate of inflation, but their free cash flow conversion ratio is going to be even lower over the next year. So, both of these are going to make it very hard to ultimately grow free cash flow in 2026, but here's the biggest red flag of them all. Their total cash return to shareholders will be approximately 8.9 billion. They're paying out 7.9 billion in dividends, which by the way, right now, free cash flow is not covering those dividend payouts, but at the exact same time, they're buying back 1 billion dollars worth of shares. So, that's 8.9 billion of capital they're returning to shareholders, while free cash flow likely won't at least be much higher than it was in 2025. So, those are undoubtedly red flags that investors need to be aware of.
那么，这对百事公司的估值意味着什么？实际上，这相对简单。如果我们跳到我们的估值表，一旦我们将百事公司输入，跳到我们的股息贴现模型，这开始真正描绘出画面。即使百事公司未来以1%甚至2%的速度增长股息，这只股票仍然存在显著的下行空间。
问题在于，目前他们无法增长股息。至少他们无法可持续地增长股息。他们最近宣布增加4%的股息，但他们只能通过削弱资产负债表来做到这一点，因为他们用所有的自由现金流来支付股息、回购股票。
当然，这并不意味着百事公司不能扭转局面，但百事公司目前的资本配置问题是非常真实的。这足以让我远离这只股票。
Now, ultimately, what does this mean for Pepsi in terms of valuation? Well, it's actually relatively simple. If we jump over to our valuation sheet, once we have Pepsi plugged in, jump over to our dividend discount model, and this starts to really paint the picture. Even if Pepsi grows its dividend at one or even 2% moving forward, there is still significant downside for this stock. And the issue with this is right now, they can't grow their dividend. They can't sustainably grow their dividend at least. They recently announced a 4% dividend increase, but they can only do that by weakening the balance sheet because they're using all their free cash flow to pay out dividends, to buy back shares. Now, of course, this doesn't mean that Pepsi can't turn things around, but the capital allocation issues at Pepsi right now are very real. And that's enough to keep me away from this stock.
这给麦当劳带来了一些严重的优势，至少相对于他们的大多数同行而言，因为当你谈论像麦当劳这样的股票时，再次，让我们以百事公司为例，因为我们刚刚看过它。从表面上看，你可能会认为可能有很多相似之处，但事实并非如此。由于他们实施的新商业模式，麦当劳更具抗衰退性。
Now, this gives McDonald's some serious advantages, at least relative to most of their peers, because when you talk about a stock like McDonald's, again, let's use Pepsi as an example since we just looked at them. On the surface level, you think there might be a lot of similarities, but that's simply not the case. McDonald's is much more recession-proof due to the new business model that they've implemented.