Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $PEP 的判断变化
百事公司的管理团队重申了其长期指引，即能够实现4%的营收增长。然而，近期的不利因素正在影响该公司。消费者开车频率降低，去加油站的次数也减少了，这损害了百事在便利店和加油站渠道的销售。
PepsiCo's management team reiterated its long-term guidance for its ability to generate 4% revenue growth. However, near-term headwinds are impacting the company. Consumers are driving less frequently and visiting gas stations less often, and that's hurting PepsiCo sales at the convenience store and gas station channel.
此外，消费者的可支配收入减少，因此他们用减少的支出能力购买必需品，而像百事的零食和饮料这样的非必需或可选购买被降级。
Furthermore, consumers have less disposable income, and so they're using that decreasing spending power to buy necessities, and so disposable or optional purchases like PepsiCo snacks and beverages are being deprioritized.
为了抵消这些挑战，百事正在增加营销投资、降低价格，并利用一大笔关税退款来资助这些举措。
PepsiCo, to help offset those challenges, is increasing investments in marketing, lowering prices, and using a big tariff refund to fund those initiatives.
但这一切是否使百事的股票成为一个买入机会？因此，通过有机销售增长和收购，百事在增加营收方面做得非常出色。在过去的12个月里，它产生了970亿美元的收入，这比2017年的大约600亿美元有所增加。
But does all of this make PepsiCo's stock a buying opportunity? So, through organic sales growth and acquisitions, PepsiCo has done a great job increasing its revenue. Over the trailing 12-month period, it generated 97 billion worth, and that's up from roughly 60 billion in 2017.
规模在饮料和零食行业是一个至关重要的因素。百事几十年来建立的分销网络帮助公司扩大其覆盖面。
Scale is a critically important factor in the beverage and snack industry. Distribution networks Pepsi has established over decades helps the company expand its access.
它学会了如何向全球客户交付、制造和营销其产品。凭借如此大的规模，公司可以更有效、更高效地交付这些产品。如果你已经派卡车和司机到世界各地的这些地点，让卡车满载是有帮助的，因此随着效率的提高，每件商品的交付成本会下降。
It's learned how to deliver, manufacture, and market its products to customers worldwide. And with scale of this size, the company can deliver those products more effectively and efficiently. If you're already sending trucks and drivers to each of these locations around the world, it helps to have those trucks full, and so the cost per item delivered decreases as you improve efficiency.
效率和营业利润率一直是百事投资者最大的抱怨。他们将百事与可口可乐进行比较，并羡慕可口可乐所表现出的那种业绩。然而，自2023年以来，百事一直在提高其营业利润率，达到15.5%。
And efficiency and operating profit margin has been the biggest complaint for investors of Pepsico. They compare Pepsico to Coca-Cola and envy the kind of performance that Coca-Cola is delivering. Pepsico has been improving their operating profit margin since 2023, however, at 15 and 1/2%.
话虽如此，短期内，管理团队愿意接受略低的利润率以改善销量增长。多年来，百事和其他饮料及零食公司一直在随着投入成本的增加而提高价格。
That said, shorter term, the management team is okay with absorbing slightly lower margins to improve volume growth. For years, Pepsico and other beverage and snack companies have been raising prices as their cost of inputs have increased.
因此，百事在最近几个月更多地面临这一事实，并正在做出决策以抵消这些影响。保持价格不变或降低价格，或提供更小的包装尺寸，以便消费者能够在预算内购买他们的产品。
And so Pepsico has been facing this fact more so in recent months and is making decisions to offset those impacts. Keeping prices either the same or lowering prices or offering smaller package sizes so that consumers can purchase their products within their budget.
百事的投入资本回报率为14.5%，虽然波动，但在过去十年的大部分时间里一直围绕这个范围。重要的是，这个超过14%的ROIC数字高于公司的加权平均资本成本，这是我寻找的为股东增加价值的管理团队的阈值。
Pepsico's return on invested capital at 14 and 1/2% has been volatile, but around this range for the better part of the previous decade. Importantly, this figure of ROIC of over 14% is above the company's weighted average cost of capital, which is the threshold I look for in a management team that's adding shareholder value.
鉴于这些近期的不利因素，投资者对百事公司的股票已变得悲观。目前其远期市盈率仅为15.7，这接近过去几年中你能买到该股票的最便宜水平。
Given these near-term headwinds, investors have grown pessimistic about Pepsi stock. It's now trading at a forward price to earnings ratio of just 15.7, which is near the cheapest you've been able to buy this stock going back several years.
你可以看到这一价格走势反映在百事公司的股价上，该股已从2月份的每股170多美元跌至今天的141美元。我还更新了对百事公司的折现现金流估值，并做了两项重要调整。
And you can see that price action reflected in PepsiCo stock price, which has fallen from over $170 per share in February down to $141 today. I also updated my discounted cash flow valuation for PepsiCo with two important changes.
首先，我上调了对该公司从现在到长期内将产生的现金流量的预期。其次，我也上调了公司的风险状况，将贝塔系数提高至0.6，考虑到公司面临的所有前所未有的情况，以及我估计百事公司未来的风险高于过去的风险。
First of all, I revised higher the amount of cash flow I expect the business will generate between today and the very long run. Secondly, I also revised higher the risk profile of the company increasing the beta to 0.6 given all of the unprecedented circumstances the company is facing and my estimates that the risk going forward for Pepsi are higher than the risk looking backward.
尽管如此，在贝塔系数为0.6的情况下，其波动性仍仅为标普500指数中普通股票波动性的一小部分。因此，这只股票非常适合更厌恶风险的投资者。
Still, at a beta of 0.6, it's still a fraction of the volatility of the average stock in the S&P 500 index. So, this stock fits well for investors that are more risk averse.
而百事公司的公允价值估计仍显示其被低估，为177美元，而当前市场价格为141美元。所以，回答我在视频开头提出的问题，是的，我确实认为百事公司的股票是一只被低估的股息股，值得买入，而且我对这一评级的信心水平相对较高，信念程度也相对较高。
And the fair value estimate for PepsiCo still looks undervalued at $177 compared to the current market price of $141. So, to answer the question I posed early in the video, yes, I do think PepsiCo stock is an undervalued dividend stock to buy and I have a relatively high confidence level, a relatively high conviction level on this ranking.
我会将百事公司的股票列为我的买入机会之一，我会说它在当前市场中的买入机会中排名前一半。
I would rank Pepsico stock as one of my I would say it would be ranked in the top half of my buying opportunities in the market right now.