Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $PLAY 的判断变化
Playboy似乎很有趣。非常低的市值，方向正确。收入同比增长11%，上个季度净利润为正，被遗忘的标志性品牌。
Playboy seems interesting. Very low market cap going in the right direction. Growing revenue 11% year-over-year positive net income last quarter forgotten iconic brand.
好吧，我不得不这么做。让我们看看。我内心的13岁小孩想看看这是怎么回事。好吧，让我们调出来。让我们看看一些现金流。
Okay, I had to do it. Let's uh let's see. The 13-year-old in me wants to see what this has to do. All right, let's pull it up. Let's take a look at some cash flow.
不是，让我们看看。Playboy股票。我们有什么？哎哟。每股40美元的峰值跌到每股1.22美元。哦，我的天。EBITDA企业市值1.36亿美元。
Wasn't Let's see. Playboy stock. What do we got? Ouch. $40 a share peak down to a$122 a share. Oh my god. Ebida enterprise market cap $136 million.
首先，如果你每股价格低于一美元，你可能会被退市。所以，如果你买入这家公司，存在严重的可能性，如果它被退市，你想要拿回资金将会更加困难。因此，他们需要进行大规模的反向拆股来提高股价。市场对反向拆股从来都不看好。
Well, first of all, I mean, if you're less than a dollar a share, you could be delisted. So, if you're buying this company, uh there's there's a serious potential that you could not if it's delisted, it's going to be much more harder to get your money out of that company should you want it. Um so, they need to do a massive reverse split to get their stock price up. Reverse splits are never looked favorably upon in the market.
收入去年没有增长，只增长了4%。好吧。利润率不错，毛利率70%，基于1.2亿美元的收入。但他们保留了其中的任何一部分吗？他们实现了8500万美元的毛利润，销售和行政费用为9100万。
运营这家公司花费了他们9100万，而收入只有1200万。你们看到了吗？所以，他们创造了1.2亿美元的收入，员工成本为9100万。这意味着人均收入大约是125美元。
Revenue not going I mean up 4% last year. Okay. Margins decent margin 70% gross profit margin on the 120 million. But did they keep any of that? So they made $85 million gross profit selling and general administration 91. It cost them $91 million to run a business that makesund 12 million. You guys see this? So they gener I'll make this a bit I can't make it bigger but I can shrink this so it's easier for you to see. So they made 120 million of revenue with a staff of 91 million. That means like revenue per employee is like a$125.
EBITDA为-2。让我们看看。发行股票。这就是他们弥补自由现金流缺口的方式。我打赌他们先看新的资产负债表，但之后他们可能会现金流不足。
Um, Ebida -2. Let's see. Issuing shares. That's how they're covering the free cash flow miss. I bet they're new balance sheet first, but then they're probably so missing cash flow.
手头只有4000万现金。库存。应收账款还好。物业。那是豪宅吗？在评论区告诉我。这个2200万美元的资产是洛杉矶的花花公子大厦吗？
Uh, only 40 million in cash on hand. inventory. A r fine property. Is that the mansion? Let me know in the comments. Is this $22 million asset the Playboy Mansion in LA?
有个想法。那座花花公子大厦的房地产价值是多少？股票的市值是多少？你能买入股票，关闭业务，出售房地产并赚钱吗？可能不行，但这只是个有趣的思维练习。
Here's a thought. How much is the real estate value of that Playboy Mansion? And what's the market cap of the stock? Could you buy the stock, shut down the business, sell the real estate and make money? Probably not, but just fun mental exercise.
应付账款没有增长。很好。我会担心应付账款在增长。长期债务。流动部分资本租赁。6300万的流动负债。哦，长期债务。哦，天哪，银行会接管这个家伙。长期债务大于收入。1.72亿的债务。
那只是银行贷款。更不用说1500万的资本租赁或2300万的其他债务，总计达到2.5亿的债务。
Um, payables not growing. Good. I'd be concerned that payables are growing. Long-term debt. Current port capital lease. 63 million of current liability. Ooh, long-term debt. Oh man, the bank's going to take this sucker. Long-term debt is is greater than revenue. 172 million of debt. That's just bank debt. Not not to mention the 15 million in capital leases or 23 million of others for a total of a quarter of a billion of debt.
这里有个问题。他们的大部分资产是无形资产。看到这个了吗？那可能来自最初的收购，当他们从赫夫纳那里买下它时。我假设，如果我记得的话。
Here's a problem. Most of their assets are intangible. See this? That's probably from the original acquisition when they bought it from Hefner. I'm assuming they if I remember
就硬资产而言，看起来你有一个物业，我假设那是物业，这里没有太多东西，但你有很多很多债务。让我们看看现金流量表。
terms of hard assets it looks like you got a property I'm assuming that's the property there's not much here but you have a lot a lot debt let's see cash flow statement.
所以，股票薪酬，没有。很好。很高兴看到。经营活动现金流为零。
So, stockbased comp, nothing. Great. Good to see. Cash operations is zero.
让我们获取更多历史数据。它曾经是正的，然后急剧转为负，现在大致盈亏平衡。所以，评论者，你说得对。你说得对。他们有点像在扭转局面。好吧。资本支出，没有。他们没有现金去做任何事。
Let's get some more history here. It was positive, then it went negative hard, and that's kind of break even. So, you're right, commenter. You're right. They are kind of like turning the ship around a little bit. Okay. Capex, nothing. They've got no cash to do anything with that.
很难喜欢，伙计。他们的债务太多了。而且，以这样的收入，他们需要运营得更精简，看看能否积累足够的现金来偿还债务。当你的收入是1.2亿时，你怎么偿还7亿的债务，对吧？那是负债吗？长期负债，长期资产，100，抱歉，我说错了，是172，不是700，1.72亿的债务。
It's tough to tough to like, man. They have way too much debt. Um, and I'm I'm not seeing with with that kind of revenue, they need to run a much cleaner operation to see if they can, you know, jin up enough cash to pay off the debt. How do you pay 700 million of debt when your revenue is 120 million, right? Is that the liability? Long-term liability assets longterm 100 I'm sorry I misspoke 172 not 700 172 million in debt.
他们必须非常努力地削减成本。所以，他们在一个在线内容制作业务中，销售成本中有3500万，然后他们真的支付给高管团队9100万。你必须削减所有这些。我认为你应该针对销售、一般和行政费用，并在总部裁掉大量人员。
专注于保持极度精简和灵活，看看能否将1.2亿收入中的更多保留到利润中。然后用它来偿还债务，也许3到5年后，你就能勉强维持一个无债务的业务，然后你可以开始增长。但他们还有很长的路要走。
Um they've got to they got to really work hard to uh to trim down costs. So, they got $35 million sitting in the cogs for a for a business that makes content online and then they're really paying their their executive staff 91 million. You got to cut all that stuff out. I think you go after SGNA here and you got to lay a ton of people off at HQ. focus on being super lean and scrappy and see if you can't try to keep a lot more of the 120 million of revenue to the bottom line. Then use that to pay down your debt and maybe 3 to 5 years from now you kind of ek out a business that is debtree then you can start growing it. Uh but they've got they've got a lot of a lot of way to go here.