Daniel Pronk 对 $PLTR 的判断变化

All right, now let's move on to the fourth stock that I want to talk about. And this one is Palunteer because Palanteer, I think, had the best earnings report of the entire season, at least from what I saw. So, let's take a look at the highlights. This screenshot shows us that Palunteer had 115% US revenue growth and it grew 23% quarter-over-arter. US commercial revenue grew 149% and US government revenue grew 90% year-over-year. Total revenue grew 93% which means that Palunteer's business nearly doubled on a year-over-year basis which is just insane. And operating in free cash flow came in at about 1.22 billion with a 63% free cash flow margin. So Palunteer's business is highly profitable while nearly doubling its revenue again on a year-over-year basis. That is truly impressive.

Palanteer is also expecting revenue of about $2.16 billion for the third quarter, which is 83% year-over-year growth versus Q3 last year. It's expecting the fullear revenue to come in at 8.15 billion, which is fullear growth of 82%. So, Palanteer is expecting to nearly double its business in 2026. And then lastly, we can see that it is expecting free cash flow of 4.6 6 billion for the full year which is a free cash flow margin of over 50%. So it is expecting to be highly profitable for the full year as well.

Now the next screenshot here shows Palanteer's cash flow statement and I want to show you this because it's truly ridiculous. Here we can see that operating cash flow came in at 2.1 billion for the first 6 months of 2026 versus 850 million for the first 6 months of 2025. So operating cash flow has more than doubled on a year-over-year basis year to date. It's actually up about 150%. However, Palanteer's capex, which is its property, plant, and equipment purchases, was only $22 million so far year to date, and last year it was only $14 million. So, Palanteer has more than doubled its operating cash flow, while its capex only increased by $8 million. and almost all of the operating cash flow has become free cash flow for the business which means that this cash is flowing straight to the balance sheet. So to put it simply, Palunteer's business is an absolute cash printer.

Now the final screenshot that I want to show you is Palunteer's rule of 40 score which is sitting at 155. Nvidia has a score of 153 and then you can see all of the other very high quality companies that are much further down. And this is just ridiculous. A rule of 40 score of 155 shows just how much that Palanteer stands out on its own, especially in the software industry.

So now let's head over to Stock Unlock really quickly and take a look at some of Palunteer's metrics here. And in the trailing 12 months, we can see that the business has now done about $6.2 billion of revenue. And if we turn on the percent growth rates, we can see that the revenue growth has been consistently accelerating since the fourth quarter of 2023. So, there has now been 3 years of consistent acceleration with the trailing 12 months revenue growing by 79%. Palanteer's free cash flow is also scaling extremely well with 3.4 billion produced in the trailing 12 months now and you can clearly see that the free cash flow of this business is growing rapidly.

Now, as I said earlier, Palanteer is expecting about $4.6 billion of free cash flow for this year and its market cap is currently about 416 billion. So if we divide this by 4.6, then it means that Palanteer's business is trading for a price to free cash flow of about 90 based on their current year estimates. This is still a very high multiple to pay for any business. Again, 90 times free cash flow. This isn't sales we're talking about. This is their free cash flow guidance for this year. So I do think that Palanteer's business is still on the more expensive end. And I do think it is worth running a quick DCF to show you what I mean here. So here in this quick DCF just as an example I said that Palunteer will grow its free cash flow by 50% annually over the next 3 years and trade for 55 times free cash flow. And even in this DCF we get a 12% compounded annual growth rate to the share price. So don't get me wrong I think that Palanteer is an incredible company but it is priced for a lot of growth here. Buying the stock right now means that the business would nearly have to quadruple its free cash flow over the next three years and maintain a 55 multiple. It's not impossible, but I think that this is a lot to ask from the business just for a 12% annual return to the share price.

So don't get me wrong I think that Palanteer is an incredible company but it is priced for a lot of growth here. Buying the stock right now means that the business would nearly have to quadruple its free cash flow over the next three years and maintain a 55 multiple. It's not impossible, but I think that this is a lot to ask from the business just for a 12% annual return to the share price. So overall, I think that Palunteer's fundamentals are absolutely ridiculous. I mean, I don't think you can even question that at this point. Again, revenue is nearly doubling with a 63% free cash flow margin with capex basically not growing at all and with the balance sheet being pristine. My only sticking point is I think that a lot of this growth is already priced into the business. And even if it continues to see very strong growth and trade for a high multiple, then it could still produce around a 12% annual return. So, it's not impossible that the stock could beat this DCF in these estimates here. But I'm a more conservative investor and I don't really want to underwrite this growth into my portfolio just to get a 12% annual return. So for me, I'm going to continue passing on Palanteer. But seriously, the fundamentals of this business are absolutely incredible.

Buying the stock right now means that the business would nearly have to quadruple its free cash flow over the next three years and maintain a 55 multiple. It's not impossible, but I think that this is a lot to ask from the business just for a 12% annual return to the share price.

So overall, I think that Palunteer's fundamentals are absolutely ridiculous. I mean, I don't think you can even question that at this point. Again, revenue is nearly doubling with a 63% free cash flow margin with capex basically not growing at all and with the balance sheet being pristine. My only sticking point is I think that a lot of this growth is already priced into the business. And even if it continues to see very strong growth and trade for a high multiple, then it could still produce around a 12% annual return. So, it's not impossible that the stock could beat this DCF in these estimates here. But I'm a more conservative investor and I don't really want to underwrite this growth into my portfolio just to get a 12% annual return. So for me, I'm going to continue passing on Palanteer. But seriously, the fundamentals of this business are absolutely incredible.

I mean, I don't think you can even question that at this point. Again, revenue is nearly doubling with a 63% free cash flow margin with capex basically not growing at all and with the balance sheet being pristine.

My only sticking point is I think that a lot of this growth is already priced into the business. And even if it continues to see very strong growth and trade for a high multiple, then it could still produce around a 12% annual return. So, it's not impossible that the stock could beat this DCF in these estimates here.

But I'm a more conservative investor and I don't really want to underwrite this growth into my portfolio just to get a 12% annual return. So for me, I'm going to continue passing on Palanteer. But seriously, the fundamentals of this business are absolutely incredible.