Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $PLTR 的判断变化
现在就在评论区猜猜他们的股票薪酬是多少。在50亿的营收中。我还没看这个。我们有公司开支5.8亿。在评论区猜猜你认为股票薪酬是多少，我们来看看。我猜是8000万，我不知道。我还没看，可能完全错了。我们等着瞧。
Let's take throw throw guesses in the comments right now on what their stockbased comp is. One the five billion of topline revenue. And I haven't looked at this. We've got corporate expenses 580 million. Throw me a guess in the comments for what you think stockbased comp is and we'll take a look. I'm guessing it's a I'm guessing 80 million and I don't know. I haven't looked at could be totally wrong. We'll see.
好吧，老兄。我们走吧。我的意思是，如果你在那里工作过，如果你能做到，如果你有能力走进董事会说：“我想要8亿美元的薪酬，谢谢。”然后他们说：“哦，哦，好的，没问题。算我一个。”
All right, dude. Let's go. I mean, if you've worked there, like, if you can do it, if you you have the chops to go into the board and say, "I'd like $800 million of comp, please." And they're like, "Oh, oh, yeah, okay. Sign me up."
1.45亿。就这样。8000万。猜测不断涌来。现金流量表股票部分[哼声和笑声]11亿。
145 million. There you go. 80 million. Guesses are rolling in. Cash flow statement stock bit [snorts and laughter] 1.1 billion.
股票薪酬1129。怎么会这样？这太过分了。所以，让我搞清楚。我们回到P，因为显然我一直没有分享这个。所以，营收看起来不错，对吧？好的。营收增长，他们收入略低于50亿。好的，没问题。
毛利在赚钱。不错。这是你的研发费用。真的非常大。15亿。那太糟糕了。
Stock base comp 1129. H how is that? That's That's offensively large. So, let me get this straight. Let's go back to the P now because I apparently I wasn't sharing all this time. So, revenue looks good, right? Okay. Growing topline, they make just under five billion in revenue. Okay, fine. Gross profit making money. Not bad. Here. Here's your R&D expense. Really, really large. 1.5 billion. That That's That's rough.
他们怎么研发的？所以，我反应的是他们到底把这些钱藏在哪里？通常，股票薪酬是给员工的。大多数员工在销售和一般管理费用里。他们的GNA总费用是5.8亿。如果GNA只有5.8亿，你怎么藏11亿的成本？
how do they even R&D? So, what I'm what I'm reacting is where do they even hide this money? So, normally normally um stockbased comp goes to the employees. Most the employees go to sit in selling they sit in general administrative expenses. Their GNA is 580 million total expense. Where do you hide 1.1 billion in costs if your GNA is only 580?
这就是为什么COGS这么高。他们把员工叫来说：“嘿，你写代码软件。你是我收入生成机器的一部分。我把你推到销售成本里。这意味着这个销售成本数字是37亿。所以这不像你通常想的COGS，你通常想的是工厂工人或制造产品单位的人。
但如果你说你的产品是软件，我在这里猜测，你可以把这些不断生成用于产生收入的软件的人移到那里。那是一个更大的数字。现在37亿，更容易藏11亿的股票薪酬在COGS这样的总费用桶里。他们就是埋在那里。
That's why the COGS is so high. They take their employees and they say, "Hey, you write code software. you're part of my revenue generation machine. I'm going to push you into cost of goods sold. That means this cost of goods sold number is 1 point is 3.7 billion. So this isn't like you know normally think COGS you think like um you know factory workers or people who are making the units that are consumed when you sell the product. But if you say your product is software and I'm speculating here, you can and and these people are constantly generating software that's used to make revenue, you can move them up there. That's a bigger number. Now 1 3.7 billion, that's easier to hide 1.1 billion of stockbased comp overall expense bucket like COGS is. That's where they buried it.
你可以在这里看到，我无法移动鼠标来指向，但你可以看到右边这两个大的，最近两个期间，右边那个大的负数，那个和上一个之间的差距从负26亿到负37亿。那个差值是11亿。那个差值与这个股票薪酬11.29亿非常吻合。
And you can see right here between I can't move my mouse to point but you can see these two large um on the on the right hand side the two most recent periods that large negative on the right the gap between that one and the one previous that goes from 2.6 billion negative to 3.7 billion negative. That delta is 1.1 billion. And that delta lines up very well with this with this this stockbased comp $1.129 billion.
那太过分了。让我们看看他们有多少，所以拿出计算器。看看他们过去五年的所有股票薪酬。1129 + 1015 + 868 + 589 + 341。那是过去五年。从2021年到2025年，过去五年支付了40亿美元的股票薪酬。
That is offensively large. Like let's look at how much they've so what is bring up a calculator. Let's look at all their stockbased comp in the last five years. 1129 + 1015 + 868 + 589 plus 341. That's last five years. $4 billion in stockbased comp was paid out in the last five years from 2021 to 2025.
40亿美元，那几乎是他们一年的全部营收，作为薪酬的一部分给了员工，除了工资、现金奖金、医疗和福利之外。我敢肯定他们的办公室很豪华，或者这些人远程工作。我敢肯定他们有零食，也许还有无限带薪休假。有人真的来上班吗？
$4 billion that is almost one year's entire revenue was given away to the employees as part of uh on top of their salary, on top of cash bonuses, on top of health care and benefits. I'm sure their offices are lavish or maybe these guys work remote. I'm sure they get snacks and maybe unlimited paid vacation. like has anybody showing up to work like like that.
所以，不，我不喜欢这家公司，那只是在榨取股东的钱。
So, no, I I I I'm not a fan of this of this company that is uh that is that is just fleecing shareholders of their money.
让我们看看股票表现。目前市值是多少？市值260亿。所以260亿，他们给了多少？那是20%？40亿的股票对260亿。是的。当前市值的20%已经作为薪酬给了员工，如果你看五年图表，股票是平的。
Let's take a look at the the at the stock performance. What's the market cap currently? uh market cap 26 billion. So 26 billion they've given away what's that 20% 4 billion in stock against 26 billion. Yeah. 20 20% of the current market cap has been given to the employees as comp uh and their stock if you look at this uh five-year chart stock is flat.
股权所有者从这家公司得到什么？如果他们所做的只是印股票然后交给员工。员工兑现。他们在赚钱。你没有。这不是你想买的公司。
What are the equity owners getting out of this company? If everything they do is just print shares and hand them to the employees. The employees cash them out. They're making money. You are not. This is not a company you want to buy.
那我认为应该采取法律行动，有些东西太恶劣了，对股东如此不诚实，说别担心，我们会增长，我敢肯定如果你看过去几年的投资者演示，它可能说嘿买我们的股票，我们会增长营收，我们会盈利等等等等，股票做了什么？
什么也没做，为什么？因为他们从后门把它输送给自己的口袋。
that is that is a that I think that should be legal action there there's there's something so egregious about that something so disingenuous uh to the stock owners to say hey don't worry we're going to grow um like I'm sure if you looked at the investor presentations in this past couple years it probably said hey buy our stocks we're going to grow revenue we're going to earnings blah blah blah blah and what does the stock do nothing why because they're they're funneling it out the back door to themselves