Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $QCOM 的判断变化
让我们看看高通。我对它不太了解。他们是不是该发财报了？我是说，他们营收持续增长。440亿。看起来他们在新冠疫情前后有个飙升。所以，一些增长可能只是价格上涨。我不知道增长中有多少是销量还是价格。
Let's take a look at Qualcomm. I I I don't know it all that well off the top of my head. Are they due to report? I mean, they're continuing to grow revenue. 44 billion. It seems like they got a spike around CO, though. So, some of that growth might just be price increase. I don't know how much of the the growth is is unit versus price.
我提这个只是因为高通的营收似乎在新冠疫情后立即飙升。我想知道他们的价格变动中有多少是销量与价格。自由现金流增长得很漂亮。哇，那就像一个45度的完美转折。自由现金流收益率接近7%。
EVA 13.5，业务稳步增长。经营现金流，股权激励在上升，但没有那么快。杠杆率非常低。他们有50亿债务，但他们赚140亿EBITDA。所以杠杆率非常低。你可以在这里的图表中看到。
企业价值和市值，蓝色和绿色非常接近。所以意味着低债务。让我们看看。200日移动平均线非常接近200日移动平均线。库存天数在增加。所以他们持有更多库存，这是我们在其他业务中看到的，他们正在回购。
在我看来很好。我是说，它符合所有条件。好的，ROIC在25%左右。很好。而且这不是一年的飙升，而是持续了很多年。看起来是个好交易。它有股息收益率。是的。有股息。有股息收益率。好的。
看起来是个稳健的业务，而且价格相当便宜。让我们看看整体。这是你的EBITDA财年。现在交易在13倍。它曾经是16倍。它曾经是11倍。它曾经是6倍。它曾经是12倍。它曾经是28倍。
9倍。13倍。所以，看起来企业EV，它似乎在这个水平交易了很长时间。13倍对于以这个速度增长的业务来说似乎很低，但它在这个水平已经有一段时间了。所以，我不知道为什么，但市场似乎并不真正尊重它的增长率并给它更高的倍数。
这可能只是高通名字的遗留问题，以及90年代科技泡沫。我不确定。
I only bring that up because Qualcomm's revenue seems to spike right after COVID. Uh, and I'm wondering how much of their price movement was was unit um price versus units free cash flows growth growing beautifully. Wow, that's that's like a great 45 degree turn or angle. Free cash flow yield 6 almost 7%. EVA 13 and a half on a business that's growing steadily. Operating cash flow, stockbased comp moving up but not nearly as fast. Leverage is very low. They have five billion of of debt but they make 14 billion of EPIDA. So beautifully underleveraged. You can see that here in the chart. Um enterprise value and uh and and market cap blue and the green are very close to each other. So it means low debt. Uh let's see. 200 day moving average very close to to the 200 day moving average. Inventory is grow increasing uh excuse me days of inventory outstanding is increasing. So they're holding more inventory which is something we're seem to be seeing in other businesses where they're buying backs. It looks good to me. I mean look it's checking all the boxes. Okay, here we go. ROIC in the mid mid20s. Great. And that's it's not just a spike for one year, but it's sustained over many, many years. Seems like a great deal. It's got a dividend yield to me. Yep. Got a dividend. Got a dividend yield. Okay. It seems like a solid business and it seems like it's fairly cheaply priced. Let's take a look at overall. Um here's your EVIDA fiscal year. It's trading at 13 times right now. It was at 16. It's been 11. It's been six. It's been 12. It's been 28. 9. 13. So, it looks like the enterprise EV, it seems to trade at this level for a long time. The 13 X seems low for a business that's growing at it rate, but it's been at this level for some time. So, I don't know why, but the market doesn't seem to really want to respect its growth rate and give it a higher multiple. It could just be legacy of Qualcomm's name and being around the tech tech bubble in the 90s. I'm not sure.