Everything Money 对 $QQQ 的判断变化
今年，当所有人都在追逐英伟达和人工智能股票时，一只不起眼的小型股息ETF在2026年悄然超越了QQQ和标普500指数。
While everyone was chasing Nvidia and AI stocks this year, a boring little dividend ETF quietly passed up QQQ and the S&P 500 in 2026.
各位，如果QQQ和SPY随着时间的推移会创出更高的高点，我的猜测是它们长期来看可能会跑赢SCHD。但如果出现糟糕的熊市，我真的认为SCHD与标普和QQQ之间的表现差异将会非常大，SCHD将主导另外两个指数。
Guys, if QQQ and SPY have higher highs to make as time goes on, my guess is they'll probably outperform SCHD in the long run. But if we have a bad bare market, I really think the difference in the SCHD performance versus the S&P and the and the um and QQQ will be very very large with the SCHD dominating the other two indexes.
当你持有QQQ时，你无法选择持有哪些科技股。你只能全部持有，包括赢家和输家。
When you own QQQ, you don't get to choose which tech stocks you hold. You're stuck with all of them, the winners and the losers.
如果你看看它们的历史，在最近的科技人工智能繁荣之前，它们基本上是同步的。SCHD与SPY保持了同步，但自人工智能繁荣以来，它最近受到了重创。正因为如此，我确实相信当人工智能繁荣结束时，SCHD的跌幅将远小于我们讨论的那些大公司、大企业和更广泛的指数。
If you look at their history, they're pretty much in tandem until this recent tech AI boom. SHD kept its own with SPY, but it's been crushed lately since the AI boom happened. Because of that, I do believe that when the AI boom ends, SCHD will fall a lot less than the big names and the big companies and the broader indexes that we're talking about.
问题就在这里。SPY和QQQ。正如我之前提到的，这些基金是按市值加权的，最大的公司占据最大的权重。目前，最大的公司都在以巨大的估值交易，基于一个假设，即人工智能将为它们带来丰厚利润。
但如果人工智能支出不能像他们希望的那样迅速转化为利润，会发生什么？当投资者看到数十亿美元流出，却还没有任何回报时，会发生什么？
Here's the problem. SPY and QQQ. As I mentioned earlier, these funds are weighted by market cap, and the biggest companies take up the most space. Right now, the biggest companies are all trading at massive valuations based on one assumption that AI is going to print money for them. But what happens if that AI spending doesn't translate into profits as fast as they want? What happens when investors look at the tens of billions going out the door and nothing coming back yet?
但你看过去3年、5年和10年，SPY和QQQ在每一个时期都击败了SCHD。
But you look at the last 3, five, and 10 years, SPY and QQQ have beaten CHD over every single one of those periods.
如果你在2000年的最高点买入QQQ，你会看到它立即下跌80%以上。但到今天，如果你一路坚持定投，你仍然可以获得超过15%的年化回报。考虑到你一开始就经历了80%的下跌，这太疯狂了。
If you bought QQQ at the very peak of 2000, you would have seen it immediately drop 80 plus%. But to today, if you kept dollar cost averaging along the way, you still would have made over 15% annualized return on your money. That's crazy considering you started with an 80% drop.
另一方面，SPY和QQQ，这些公司倾向于将大部分收益留在公司内部，这意味着你永远不需要缴纳那些税。在20或30年的时间里，这种税收拖累会侵蚀你相当大一部分回报，除非你把它放在税收优惠账户中。
SPY and QQQ on the other hand, those companies tend to keep most of their earnings inside the company, which means you don't pay those taxes ever. Over 20 or 30 years, that tax drag on CHD can eat it way at a meaningful chunk of your returns unless you have it in a tax advantage account.
各位，把你的钱放在像SCHD、SPY甚至一点点QQQ这样的ETF中，这是明智的。
And look, guys, having your money in an ETF like CHD, SPY, or even a little QQQ, that's smart.
同样的事情在某个时候也会发生在标普和QQQ身上。事实上，当道尔顿和豪斯，当我把他带进来时，我说：“道尔顿，我想持有SPY和QQQ。”他一天后回来找我，他说：“为什么不选SCHD？”
The same thing will happen with the S&P and QQQ at some point. In fact, when Dalton and House when I brought him on board, I said, "Daltton, I want to own SPY and QQQ." Came back to me a day later, he goes, "Why not SCHD?"
我们相信，标普500指数和QQQ在未来10或15年内可能带来较低的回报，但罗素2000指数基于其历史，可能是最好的机会之一。
We believe that the S&P 500 and QQQ could deliver lower returns over the next 10 or 15 years, but the Russell 2000 could be one of the best opportunities out there based on its history.