Joseph Carlson 对 $ROL 的判断变化
Rollins，一家害虫防治企业，也处于大幅下滑之中。
Rollins, which is a pest control business, is also on a big downturn.
然后是Rollins，一家大型害虫防治公司，由于表现良好而享有高溢价。我不会称这是一个普通的扭亏为盈的股票，因为Rollins实际上并不处于绝望境地。这家公司并没有那么糟糕。事实上，这家公司实际上经营得相当不错。
Then we have Rollins, a massive pest control company that was at a big premium because of how well it was doing. I wouldn't call this one a normal turnaround play because Rollins really isn't in desperation. The company's not doing that poorly. In fact, the company's actually operating quite well.
但股价远远超出了其本身。它再次交易在每股65美元。现在它的交易价格大约是那个价格的一半。多年来，Rollins Corporation一直以溢价交易，市盈率约为57倍。现在它的市盈率为33倍。
自由现金流收益率过去约为2%。现在它已经上升到3.5%。
But the stock price got way ahead of itself. It was trading again at $65 per share. Now it's trading at about half of that. For years Rollins Corporation traded at a premium, around a 57 trailing PE ratio. Now it trades at a 33. The free cash flow yield used to trade around a 2% free cash flow yield. Now it's traded all the way up to a 3.5.
那么为什么Rollins的交易价格远低于其历史平均水平？嗯，主要原因是他们错过了盈利预期。这家公司在过去几个季度没有达到预期。数据比预期疲软，股票被大幅降级。
So why is Rollins trading for much cheaper than its historical average? Well, the big reason why is they missed their earnings. The company simply didn't live up to its expectations over the past couple of quarters. The numbers came in softer than expected and the stock got massively derated.
这并不意味着它今天非常便宜。Rollins仍然以健康的估值交易，但更加合理。它不再处于50或60倍的市盈率，现在已降至30倍。
Now that doesn't mean that it's dirt cheap today. Rollins still trades at a healthy valuation, but it's much more reasonable. No longer is it in the 50s or 60s PE ratio, now it's down to a 30.
所以，这是一家经过多年等待，终于降至一个考虑到业务前景而合理的估值的公司。Rollins毕竟是一家出色的公司。
So this is a company that after years of waiting is finally down to a valuation that makes sense given the business prospects. Rollins is after all a fantastic company.
事实证明，害虫防治是一项非常可靠且可预测的业务。人们不希望家里或周围有虫子，他们愿意每年都花钱，年复一年。事实上，很多人并不真正认为这笔钱是可自由支配的。他们认为这是住在家里必须的，对于许多拥有房地产或物业的人来说，他们出租地方，也需要为租户提供害虫防治。
As it turns out, pest control is a very reliable and predictable business. People don't want bugs in or around their home and they're willing to dish out money every single year, year after year. In fact, a lot of people don't really consider this money discretionary. They consider it a must-have for living in a home, and for many people that own real estate or own properties, they rent out places, they also need to have pest control for their tenants.
我非常喜欢这家公司。我认为Rollins实际上是值得拥有的更好的非AI公司之一。现在它终于达到了一个值得关注的估值。
I like the company a lot. I think Rollins is actually one of the better non-AI companies to own. And now it's finally at a valuation worth looking at.