Dividendology 对 $RSG 的判断变化
最后，我们来看RSG，即共和服务公司，该公司宣布股息增加7.2%。但看看这10年的回报，上涨超过323%。显然，这还不包括股息。
And then finally, we come to RSG, Republic Services, who announced a 7.2% dividend increase. But take a look at these 10-year returns. It's up over 323%. Obviously, that's not including dividends.
不过，如果我们看过去一年，我们看到了一些回调。那么，回调的原因是什么？我们稍后会谈到，但让我们先看看那些股息指标。
And if we look in the last year now though, we've seen a bit of a pullback. So, what's the source of that pullback? Well, we'll get to that in just a moment, but let's go ahead and take a look at those dividend metrics.
你会看到自由现金流大幅增长，轻松覆盖了股息支付，自由现金流派息率非常健康。所以，我想回到的问题是，这种下跌的原因是什么，因为很明显收益率非常安全。股息率仅为1.25%，股息也将以约7.2%的合理速度继续增长。
And what you'll see is free cash flow has grown substantially, easily covering those dividend payments, a very healthy free cash flow payout ratio. So, again, what I want to get back to is what has the source of this decline been because it's clear the yield is exceedingly safe. At just 1.25%, the dividend will continue to grow at a fair rate as well, at about 7.2%.
我们之所以看到下跌，主要是估值倍数的问题。因为看看盈利和自由现金流。每股收益、每股营收，尤其是每股自由现金流都大幅增长。所以，每当你看到这样的增长，却看到股价下跌，我知道这听起来很明显，但这意味着估值倍数有所下降。
Well, the reason we've seen a decline is primarily the valuation multiple. Because look at earnings and free cash flow. Earnings per share, revenue per share, and especially free cash flow per share have grown substantially. So, anytime you're seeing growth like that and you see a stock declining in its share price, I know it sounds obvious, but it means there's been a decline in the valuation multiple.
看看这个。这家公司目前的远期市盈率仍为29.51倍。对于一家未来几年盈利预期在10%至9%区间的股票来说，这个估值相当昂贵。这当然是相当稳健的盈利增长，但对于一家市盈率在29至30倍的股票来说，这个价格是昂贵的。
And look at this. This company is still trading at a forward PE multiple of 29.51. That's quite expensive for a stock that has earnings estimates in the 10 to 9% range over the next few years. That's certainly very solid earnings growth, but it's expensive for a stock with a 29 to 30 PE multiple.
那么，为什么他们会以这种估值交易呢？现实是，市场在寻找他们认为具有抗衰退能力、抗AI能力的公司。而Waste Management和RSG正是这类企业。它们确实有机会通过AI得到增强，但不会被颠覆。因此，市场愿意为此支付溢价。
So, why are they trading at this type of valuation? Well, the reality is the market is looking for companies that they deem recession proof, AI proof. And Waste Management and RSG are those exact type of businesses. There's certainly opportunities for them to be enhanced by AI, but they're not going to be disrupted. And so, as a result, the market is willing to pay a premium.
即使商业模式完好，股息非常安全且不断增长，估值风险始终存在。而且说实话，我确实认为那个市盈率倍数存在一点估值风险。显然，这在一定程度上是事实，因为尽管自由现金流仍在快速增长，但该股在过去一年下跌了7.6%。
Even if the business model's intact, the dividend is very safe and growing, there's always valuation risk. And I do think, to be honest, there is a little bit of valuation risk with that PE multiple. And obviously, that's somewhat the case as we've seen the stock decline 7.6% over the last year despite the fact free cash flow is still growing rapidly.