Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $SBUX 的判断变化
首席执行官 Brian Niccol 再次施展了他的魔法。在被从 Chipotle 挖走后，Brian Niccol 在星巴克取得了显著成功，在最近一个完成的季度中，将可比门店销售额增长加速至 7.9%。
CEO Brian Niccol is working his magic again. After being poached away from Chipotle, Brian Niccol is achieving significant success at Starbucks, accelerating comparable store sales growth to 7.9% in the most recently completed quarter.
在星巴克，他已经推动了显著的改善。股价大幅上涨，销售额在增长，90 天活跃奖励会员增加到 3600 万，而且我喜欢在运营问题得到纠正之前放慢新店开发的策略，对吧？
At Starbucks, he's already facilitating significant improvement. The stock price is up meaningfully, sales are increasing, 90-day active rewards members are increasing to 36 million, and I like the strategy of slowing down new store development until you get the operations corrected, right?
他们遇到了很多供应链问题，一些季节性产品经常缺货，所以在加速新店扩张之前先把事情做好，我认为这是一个审慎的策略，已经赢得了投资者的青睐。
They've had a lot of supply chain issues, a lot of unavailability of some of their seasonal products, and so getting things right before accelerating new store expansion, I think is a prudent strategy that's already gaining favor with investors.
但这是否意味着星巴克股票现在是一个买入机会？让我们仔细看看并回答这个问题。在过去的 12 个月中，星巴克的销售额增加到 380 亿，正如我提到的，接近两位数的可比门店销售额增长。在困难的宏观经济背景下，这更加令人印象深刻。
But does that make Starbucks stock a buying opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look and answer that question. On a trailing 12-month basis, Starbucks sales increased to 38 billion, as I mentioned, near double-digit comparable store sales growth. That's even more impressive amid a difficult macroeconomic backdrop.
但尽管宏观经济背景困难，星巴克仍在推动销售加速。因此，这使其更加令人印象深刻。这些改善是以盈利能力为代价的。星巴克的营业利润率从 2024 年的约 16% 下降到最近时期的 10%。
但正如你所看到的，过去 12 个月的营业利润率已经出现了好转。它曾跌至 9% 的低点，然后回升至 10%，管理层重申了他们的信心，即随着其中一些变化开始在整个系统中发挥作用，他们可以继续提高营业盈利能力。
But despite that difficult macroeconomic backdrop, Starbucks is facilitating an acceleration in sales. And so that makes it even more impressive. these improvements are coming at the expense of profitability. Starbucks' operating profit margin declined from about 16% in 2024 to 10% in the most recent period. But as you can see, there's been a turnaround there in the trailing 12-month operating margin. It fell as low as 9% before jumping back up to 10, and management reiterated their confidence that they can continue improving operating profitability as some of these changes start to flow through the system.
一个例子是大约 1000 家星巴克门店的翻新。那是 2026 年的计划。但这些翻新带来了消费者体验的如此大的改善，导致购买活动增加，同一客户的回访增加，以至于星巴克现在将其扩大到 1500 家门店。
One example is the remodeling of roughly 1,000 Starbucks locations. That was the plan for 2026. But those remodels have resulted in such an improvement in consumer experience with resulting increasing purchase activity, increasing revisits from the same customer, that Starbucks now expanded that to 1,500 locations.
我真的很喜欢看到这一点。我喜欢看到管理团队实施一个计划，看看它的进展，结果如此积极，以至于他们扩大了计划。我喜欢看到这类情况。
I really love to see that. I love to see management teams implement a program and see where it goes, and the results come back so positive that they expand the program. I love to see those kinds of situations.
这就是星巴克向投资者报告的，这个特定的计划，是首席执行官 Brian Niccol 正在实施的众多计划之一，效果非常好，以至于他们今年就将其扩大了 50%。
And that's what Starbucks is reporting to investors that this particular program, which is one of many that CEO Brian Niccol is implementing, has worked out so well that they're expanding it by 50% this year alone.
投资资本回报率也一直呈下降趋势，最近时期为 11.5%。我喜欢转向更像资产型的商业模式。记住，星巴克大约是一半一半，当你考虑星巴克作为公司拥有多少门店以及他们与特许经营商合作经营多少门店时。
最近，他们的中国业务，他们剥离或从更偏向公司所有的策略转向更少公司所有的策略，更像资产型，更多特许经营，我认为这在中国这样的地区更为重要，因为那里的消费者特征可能与北美等地区不同，而星巴克在北美有更多的门店、更多的经验和更多训练有素的管理人员来处理不同的消费者口味。
The returns on invested capital had also been on a downward trajectory, resulting in 11 and 1/2% over the most recent period. I like to shift to a more asset-like business model. Starbucks, remember, they're about half and half when you're thinking about how many stores Starbucks owns as a corporation and how many stores they operate with franchisees. And more recently, their China operations, they divested or shifted away from a more corporate-owned strategy to a less corporate-owned strategy, more asset-like, more franchisee, which I think is even more important in a region like China that could have different consumer characteristics than in a region like North America, where Starbucks has more locations, more experience, more trained management to handle the different consumer tastes.
到目前为止，正如我所预期的，我很欣赏 Brian Niccol 所做的举措和政策。如果你还记得，当那个公告发布时，星巴克股价立即上涨了 20%。那是股市投资者对 Brian Niccol 的能力以及他在 Chipotle 取得的成功的乐观情绪。
So far, you know, as I expected, I've appreciated the moves, the policies that Brian Nickel is making, If you remember, there was an immediate 20% increase in Starbucks stock price when that announcement was made. And that was the optimism from stock market investors about the capabilities of Brian Nickel and the success he delivered at Chipotle.
而且它没有让人失望。到目前为止，在星巴克实施的政策运作得非常好。话虽如此，估值已经反映了这些预期和这些改善。星巴克股票现在的远期市盈率为 34.6，而大约一年前的远期市盈率为 25。
And it hasn't disappointed. Thus far, the policies implemented at Starbucks are working very well. That being said, the valuation has reflected those anticipations and those improvements. Starbucks stock is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 34.6, which is up from a forward price to earnings of 25 just about 1 year ago.
同样，我更新了对星巴克的贴现现金流估值，我的公允价值估计为 68 美元。当前股价为 108 美元。
Similarly, I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Starbucks and my fair value estimate came to $68. The current stock price is $108.
所以，投资者对 Brian Niccol 给星巴克带来的变化和改善感到乐观，这不是什么秘密。在我看来，他们过于乐观了。
So, it's no secret that investors are optimistic about the changes and improvements that Brian Nickel is bringing to Starbucks. And in my opinion, they're overly optimistic.
我愿意拥有星巴克股票，但不是在这些价格上。我要对 Brian Niccol 以及 Brian 给星巴克带来的成功表示赞扬，并祝贺受益的投资者，但我不会在这些价格上购买星巴克股票。
我将此评为持有。我会等待更好的入场点来为我的投资组合购买一些星巴克股票。
I would like to own Starbucks stock, but not at these prices. I will say kudos to Brian Nickel and the success Brian brought to Starbucks, and congratulations to investors that have benefited, but I will not be buying Starbucks stock at these prices. I'm ranking this as a hold. I'll be waiting for a better entry to buy some Starbucks stock for my portfolio.